Obama Surpasses Clinton in Numbers of Pledged Delegates With Weekend Sweep

[Demeter]

http://www.buzzflash.com/articles/editorblog/046


Mark Karlin, Editor and Publisher, BuzzFlash.com February 11, 2008

Democratic Race

Current Delegate Count:
BIDEN 0
CLINTON 1,131
DODD 0
EDWARDS 26
GRAVEL 0
KUCINICH 0
OBAMA 1,134
RICHARDSON 0

CBS News Delegate Count as of Feb. 11

CBS Delegate Count Includes Estimate of Superdelegate "Pledges"

With the decisive weekend sweep of four states and the Virgin Islands by Barack Obama, he has passed Hillary Clinton in the crucial, popularly elected, pledged delegates. This is the first time since Iowa that he has been in that position.

As we noted in a previous BuzzFlash Editor's Blog, because of the way in which Democratic delegates are finally allocated -- and because the number of superdelegate "pledges" are tallied by individual news organizations -- delegate counts for the Dems vary by news organization.

But here are two to look at:

CBS: 1134 for Obama and 1131 for Clinton

CNN: 1148 for Clinton and 1121 for Obama

CNN Delegate Count Projections as of February 11


Hillary Clinton
Pledged: 924
Superdelegates: 224
Total: 1,148

Barack Obama
Pledged: 986
Superdelegates: 135
Total: 1,121

Taking a closer look at the CNN figures, which put Clinton ahead of Obama in total delegate votes (including "pledged" superdelegate commitments), Obama is ahead among popularly elected delegates (excluding the appointed superdelegates) by 986 delegates to 924 for Clinton. This Obama advantage in the popularly elected delegates is likely to increase over the next few weeks until the "showdown" in Texas and Ohio. But the outcome of even those races -- if Obama continues with much momentum -- remains unclear. Remember the "Giuliani" fiasco from seeing others roll up delegates in a series of wins.



In what was expected originally to be a "walk-away with the nomination" on Super Tuesday run for Hillary Clinton, we have ended up with a race that will go down to possibly Pennsylvania on April 22, or beyond.

We are in uncharted and uncertain territory now. This is a campaign of two contrasting narratives and demographic bases, that nonetheless are evolving, as the competition for delegates progresses.

It's certainly a race -- with all its crosscurrents of generational divisions, gender and race -- that political scientists will be studying for a long time to come.

But keep your eye on that pledged delegate count. At this point, Clinton has the edge with the superdelegates. But a large number of the uncommitted superdelegates are likely to hold back now, given that the race is so close.

And then there are those 26 Edwards delegates in the wing that we first posted about -- and that both Clinton and Obama are personally meeting with Edwards to discuss (as in seeking his endorsement). And the question of Michigan and Florida is still out there.

The family feud within the Democratic Party is going to continue for awhile, alas.

But take heart in this. In almost every state, record breaking numbers of people are swarming to vote in the Dem primaries and caucuses. There is an excitement, hope and fervor that should make us all proud.

We are engaging in the most fundamental act of democracy; we are voting for who will represent us in the White House. We feel empowered and passionate.

That is a very good sign indeed.

BUZZFLASH EDITOR'S BLOG

BuzzFlash Afternote: "As far as all the different delegate numbers that you see for Obama and Clinton, there is good reason for that. They are largely just estimates. In many states, final delegate allocations are determined at a follow-up state party convention or state party meeting. The counts won't change dramatically, but they will change. (This explains the differing claims over whether Clinton or Obama won one more delegate in Nevada. This won't be finally determined until a Nevada state party convention a little further down the road.) Also, the superdelegate 'pledges' of support are just that. They aren't recorded by the DNC, but kept manually by various media organizations."