THE ENTHUSIASM GAP-Voter engagement in the presidential race

[babylonsister]

February 14, 2008

THE ENTHUSIASM GAP
Voter engagement in the presidential race

By Alan I. Abramowitz
Special Guest Columnist




There is a large enthusiasm gap between Democratic and Republican voters in this year's presidential campaign. The gap is evident in polling data, crowds at campaign rallies, turnout in primary elections, and campaign contributions. In a January 10-13 Gallup Poll, for example, 74 percent of Democratic voters said that they were "more enthusiastic than usual" about voting this year compared with only 44 percent of Republican voters. Forty-eight percent of Republican voters said that they were "less enthusiastic than usual" about voting this year compared with only 15 percent of Democratic voters.

The Democratic advantage has also been evident in turnout in presidential primaries. On February 5th, Super Tuesday, almost 15 million voters participated in Democratic primaries compared with fewer than 9 million in Republican primaries. One week later, more than 1.8 million voters in Maryland, Virginia and the District of Columbia participated in Democratic primaries compared with fewer than 800 thousand in Republican primaries. Even in Virginia, until recently considered a solidly red state, Democratic turnout more than doubled Republican turnout.

The Democratic advantage in turnout represents a big change from the 2000 presidential primaries, the last time both parties had competitive nomination races. In that year over 19 million votes were cast in Republican primaries compared with only 14 million in Democratic primaries.

Last but certainly not least, the leading Democratic candidates have raised far more money from individual contributors than their Republican counterparts. During 2007, according to reports filed with the Federal Election Commission, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama raised a combined total of 208 million dollars from individual contributors. During the same period, the three leading Republican candidates, John McCain, Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee, raised only 99 million dollars from individual contributors.

Like the Democratic advantage in primary turnout, the Democratic advantage in fundraising represents a reversal of the situation that existed during the 2000 presidential campaign. In that year, the two leading Republican candidates, George W. Bush and John McCain, raised a total of 130 million dollars from individual contributors while the two leading Democratic candidates, Al Gore and Bill Bradley, raised only 105 million dollars from individual contributors.

While the enthusiasm gap between the parties is real and important, there is also strong evidence of an enthusiasm gap within the Democratic Party: supporters of Barack Obama appear to be more enthusiastic about their candidate than supporters of Hillary Clinton. This difference is reflected in the larger crowds that Obama has been attracting at his campaign rallies and the larger number of individuals who have contributed to Obama's campaign.

more...

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/article.php?id=AIA2008021401

[Rosa Luxemburg]

1. We are Feb 08, a lot of water is going to go under the bridge before November

I feel that the GOP are going to pull a big stunt before the GE that will get them rallying around he flag again. We'll see all our energy eroded. I hope that I'm wrong?

[babylonsister]

2. I don't think so. People are bloody sick of the GOP, and the war. Most

people are also aware that we've been terrorized for too many years by our own admin; look at *'s rating, and the lack of enthusiam for the rethugs in general. Chin up!
If that old war horse is voted in, I'll be really surprised.

[HawkerHurricane]

3. Don't be in any tall building in Late October.

Just saying.

[Rosa Luxemburg]

4. that's exactly it

[riverwalker]

5. The difference this time

is that instead of just voting AGAINST something (Bush),people feel they are voting FOR something in Obama.

[Doctor_J]

6. This is probably offset by the "voting machine ownership gap"

and the "willing to break the law to win gap". It's going to be really hard to vote in Dem precincts in swing states in November. Voters in black neighborhoods in Cleveland will probably have to wait 10-12 hhours or more to get to the single voting machine at their polling place. If they do make it to the front of the line, they'll have top hope they weren't purged from the voter roll. If they brave those two steps, they'll need another half hour or so to withstand the "challenge" from a sociopathic repuke, and have a valid recent photo id, even if they don't drive.

On the upside, this November may be the time where we actually take action against these people.

[Divernan]

7. K&R

nt

[JPZenger]

8. Legislator Urges $ for Obama in His Obituary

http://www.dailyprogress.com/servlet/Satellite?pagename=CDP%2FMGArticle%2FCDP_BasicArticle&c=MGArticle&cid=1173354632552&path=!news

Mitchell Van Yahres was a State Representative representing Charlottesville, Virginia for 24 years, before his recent death. Excerpts of the above article:

"Van Yahres made national news three days after his death when his obituary on Monday made a “late” endorsement of Barack Obama’s presidential candidacy by including a sentence asking friends “to make a healthy and significant contribution to the presidential campaign of Barack Obama.”

Gene Corrigan, former athletics director at the University of Virginia and a longtime friend of Van Yahres, alluded to the obituary when he began his tribute to his friend by saying, “Here’s a Republican who sent a big check to Barack Obama.” Cheers, laughter and applause drowned him out for 15 seconds.

Unlike many in our political life today, “he saw the worth in every person; he never bashed immigrants or gays or lesbians, rich or poor, young or old,” Plum said. “He was a liberal and he never apologized for it. And, he was a deeply religious person. Not that he toted a Bible or quoted scripture, but in his everyday life he demonstrated by the way he lived that he was a man of God.” Early in the service it became clear it was not an ordinary funeral, as even the priests joked and shared stories about the man described as a dauntless, idealistic advocate for the poor and the powerless, but one with a boundless sense of humor.

County Supervisor Lindsay G. Dorrier ... said he “was a good man and he always did the right thing.” “He stood for treating all black people equally at the table when it wasn’t popular to do that,” especially in the 1960s and ‘70s ... James Murray said after the service that it was “the happiest funeral I’ve ever been to.”