http://www.newstatesman.com/200802210023"The reality is that the surge is not what has led to the lower levels of violence, and attacks on US troops are still causing considerable casualties. What has had a far greater impact has been the decision by the radical Shia cleric Moqtada al-Sadr to call a ceasefire between his Mahdi army, a force of up to 100,000, and US troops and Iraqi government security units. Although US commanders on the ground ascribe almost every attack on Iraqis and their troops to al-Qaeda-linked groups, this is mainly for political reasons - to support President Bush's notion that Iraq is the central battleground in the fight against the terrorists.
What is undeniable is that the Mahdi army is far more powerful militarily than groups linked to al-Qaeda, and it has been behind far more attacks. Unlike the dozens of Sunni-based insurgency groups, a number of which work with and are allied to al-Qaeda-linked groups, the Mahdi army is a proper standing military force and, as US commanders will tell you off the record, its soldiers in effect control at least half of Baghdad. What's more, the Mahdi army is openly visible around the city. When you visit predominantly Shia districts of Baghdad, such as al-Khadimiya, the Mahdi army's offices, flags, posters and patrols are everywhere to be seen.
Moqtada al-Sadr called the ceasefire because the Mahdi army badly needed to reflect the political force his movement had in the Iraqi parliament (it holds a large number of seats). On the streets of Baghdad, the army had been seen not as a political movement, but as a group of criminal gangs posing as a sectarian militia defending their community against attacks by Sunnis.
But many of Sadr's commanders, a number of whom have been arrested as a result of their decision to call a ceasefire, are urging him not to renew it for another six-month term. The pressure on him to take up arms again is intense. Shia residents of mixed neighbourhoods in Baghdad are now more easily targeted by Sunni groups eager to drive them out. They want local Mahdi army fighters to come to their aid and carry out revenge attacks again. If Sadr succumbs to this pressure from his grass-roots supporters - the huge numbers of working-class and impoverished Shia communities not just in Baghdad, but throughout Iraq - the lull in the violence will end almost overnight. No boosting of troop levels or boosting of the surge will have any effect."