Is Iraq the next Afghanistan?

[dArKeR]

Tuesday, Feb 10, 2004,Page 9

At the onset of the US-led war in Iraq, two competing views shaped predictions about the outcome. The first contended that overthrowing former Iraqi president Saddam Hussein's regime would usher in a democratic era in Iraq that would serve as a model and catalyst for democratic change regionally.

Derided by detractors as a new "domino theory," this view presented intervention in Iraq as similar to America's role in post-World War II Japan. Against the optimism of that "Japan scenario," pessimists argued that a "Somalia scenario" was more likely. They staked their claim on the tribal, sectarian, and multiethnic nature of Iraq, which, in the absence of dictatorship, would supposedly incite Iraq's collapse into a "failed state," with rampant warlordism, ethnic and religious feuds, and harboring of terrorist organizations.

But the main question now is whether Iraq will drift along lines somewhere between these two scenarios, increasingly resembling Afghanistan. This "Afghan scenario" implies a weak state with nominal power over effectively autonomous fiefdoms that are headed by strongmen who are represented in the central government.

http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/edit/archives/2004/02/10/2003098227

[pacifictiger]

1. the difference

is oil resources - there were none in afghanistan back then, no incentive to stay.
The differing thing about afghanistan this time is they are trying to get a pipeline pushed thru that area from one of the other former soviet ..Stan countries so it has now become "strategically" important. You can bet the US will retain a presence in Iraq as long as they have access to the oil.