The World's Growing Food-Price Crisis

[RamboLiberal]

Source: Time Magazine

Add another item to the list of threats to world peace: Food.

Soaring prices of staples — which have risen about 75% since 2005, driven by growing demand, rising oil prices and the effects of global warming — have sparked riots in several countries, as people reel from sticker shock and governments scramble to feed their people. Crowds tore through three cities in the West African nation of Burkina Faso late last week, burning government buildings and looting stores; when officials tried to talk peace with one group of protesters, the enraged crowd hurled stones at them. The riots followed similar violent protests over food prices in Senegal and Mauritania earlier this year. And, last October, protesters in Pakistan burned hundreds of food-ration stores in West Bengal after stockpiles emptied, leaving thousands of people unfed.

Governments might succeed in quashing the protests, but lowering food prices could be far tougher and will likely take years, according to analysts who track global food consumption. The Washington-based International Food Policy Research Institute, or IFPRI, said last December that high prices are unlikely to fall soon, partly because world food stocks are being squeezed by soaring demand. The wild ride in agricultural markets has attracted intense speculation among investors, with billions of dollars being poured into commodities markets. On Monday, the price of wheat shot up about 25% on the Chicago Board of Trade, after officials in Khazakstan announced plans to restrict exports of their giant wheat crop in order to ensure the food supply to their own citizens. Russian officials have also said they are planning to restrict grain exports.

For the world's poorest people, the price rises are already proving devastating, since the speed at which prices have risen has wrought havoc on government relief programs. Earlier this month, a top official at the U.S. Agency for International Development admitted that in order to meet current targets, it had been forced to skim off funds from future food-aid programs, worth about $120 million.

The problem is exacerbated by the fact that millions more people who were previously earning enough to feed their families can now no longer afford the food in their local stores, and are now swelling the ranks of those expecting relief from aid organizations. "We are seeing a new face of hunger," the executive director of U.N.'s World Food Program, Josette Sheeran, told TIME on Tuesday. "People who were not in the urgent category are now moving into that category." The organization currently feeds about 73 million people, including millions who get by on just 50 cents a day. After hosting a series of emergency meetings with international organizations and food experts this month at WFP's Rome headquarters, Sheeran said the organization has concluded that food prices will remain high for years. She announced on Monday that the organization might have to cut its relief programs unless it raises an extra $500 million this year. "There is no way we can absorb a 25% price rise in one day and the volatility of the markets," Sheeran said.



Read more: http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1717572,00.html

[Hydra]

1. Wow! The news keeps getting better and better

While we're killing people in Iraq, the world seems to be downward spiraling.

I wonder how many people this will kill...but I know the IMF and others who have been screwing around with weaker nations' food supplies won't get blamed.

[MarkR1717]

2. Only a real eco-terrorist would turn more grain into.....

....ethanol. That would put the price of grain up even more.

[Viva_La_Revolution]

3. It's beginning.

We'll hear of millions starving, and then it will be at our door.

Please people, learn to grow food. Learn to cook from scratch.

[NickB79]

4. It's amazing how fast this has come upon us

3 years ago, I began discussing issues such as Peak Oil and global warming with my girlfriend. Her response was typical of a lot of my friends: "At least we'll be dead before it gets really bad, but I feel bad for any children we have." I just shook my head and let it go. She's now finally coming around to see what I was trying to point out.

We're going to look back at these times as the peak of human civilization, I'm afraid.

[Viva_La_Revolution]

7. I'm trying to remain below 'scared' at about 'seriously concerned' but

I'm also considering jumping straight up to 'freaked out'. :scared:

[GliderGuider]

5. I just finished an analysis of food security in Africa out to 2040

It's published here on my web site. It takes into account such factors as Peak Oil and Gas, GDP declines due to energy losses, climate change, HIV/AIDS, population growth rates, rising fertilizer prices, the rising cost of the purchase and distribution of food imports and the loss of international food aid (as we're already seeing). I just finalized the article earlier this week, and it has already been overtaken by events.

Two factors in the analysis now seem much too conservative. I estimated that global food price inflation would average only 12% per year over that time, while 20% might be more realistic. I also projected a rise of 500% in fertilizer prices by 2040 due to the increasing cost of the required natural gas feedstock. Based on a recent analysis of the natural gas situation, I now think that doubling that estimate might be too conservative.

My model with the conservative assumptions shows the population of Africa declining from 930 million today to 400 million in 2040 - a loss of 500 million in absolute numbers, but arrived at through over 900 million premature deaths due to starvation and rising infant mortality.

If I substitute in my new "more realistic" parameters, Africa ends up with a population of 250 million in 2040...

The world is at the beginning of the Hard Times.

[Viva_La_Revolution]

8. I prefer 'The Last Dark Age'

As in, someday in the future our survivors will have recovered enough to co-exist in harmony with the other earth inhabitants, and sitting by the fire on cold evenings will tell tales of the Last Dark Age - when humans were punished for their greed and stupidity but given one last chance to survive...

:)

[Thor_MN]

6. That doesn't matter, food prices are volatile, just exclude them.

:sarcasm:

[Trajan]

9. This is what scares me most ....

I swear I am gonna expand my growing this season ....

I had better .... I have 3 kids ....

[Viva_La_Revolution]

10. Hey Hon!

I'm putting in a Square foot garden in my Grandma's backyard this year! There's a good sized patch in the backyard that gets 8 hours of sun a day. I think I can fit 2 4X12 plots and maybe a few little 2x2's. She has a ton of deck space that gets 10 hours of sun, so we'll container garden up there. We'll all be swimming in tomatoes and cucumbers by August, Goddess willing. We can trade extra veggies! :) What are you gonna plant?