Clinton's "Big State" Myth: Why Barack Obama Remains the Most Electable...

[kristopher]

Clinton's "Big State" Myth: Why Barack Obama Remains the Most Electable Democrat This Fall
Robert Creamer

The Clinton Campaign's post March 4th message is to forget about the delegate count and nominate Hillary because she can win the big states Democrats need in November. That argument simply doesn't hold up to scrutiny. Here's why:

1) Most of the "Big States" she has won are not battleground states in the fall. New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts and California are solid blue states where Obama would do as well or better than Clinton in a general election against McCain.

2) Of the states she's won so far, the big exception to this rule is Ohio. Ohio is in fact a critical battleground state where Hillary has demonstrated that she has a leg up among lower income whites and older voters. But the polling also shows that in a general election, Barack offsets this advantage in Ohio among young voters and college-educated independents. In a McCain-Clinton match up the later group could gravitate heavily to McCain in Ohio.

In an Ohio general election, Obama's ability to attract independents and mobilize young and minority voters will trump Clinton's advantages among non-college whites -- a group that will break heavily for either Barack or Hillary against the "free trade" McCain.

Just remember, in Ohio right now, "national security" is a job. The economy and trade -- not "national security" -- will almost certainly continue to be the overriding issues for non-college whites in Ohio this November.

3) Obama puts in play a panoply of states where Clinton would have a much tougher time. Obama could potentially win Virginia (13 electoral votes), Missouri (11 electoral votes) and even Mississippi (whose population is 40% African American -- 6 electoral votes). He would be considerably more competitive than Clinton in other battleground states like Colorado (9 electoral votes), Iowa (7 electoral votes), Wisconsin (10 electoral votes), Minnesota (10 electoral votes) and Michigan (17 electoral votes). The same goes for New Hampshire (4 electoral votes) -- a state where McCain will work hard to woo independents among whom Obama did much better than Clinton in this year's primary....

Read the rest at:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert-creamer/clintons-big-state-myt_b_90115.html

[johnnydrama]

1. also

Couldn't her "big state" theory be reversed by noting that the biggest cities in Ohio & Texas voted big for Obama?

If you look at the big US states as keys, why not the big cities in each state as well?

[Maddy McCall]

2. Because delegates are awarded by state, not city.

[NC_Nurse]

3. Excellent article. K&R

[immoderate]

4. The electoral college is weighted toward the small states. Another Obama advantage.

Small states get more votes in relation to their population.

--IMM

[flyarm]

5. how did it go for this nation having florida stolen in 2000?

how did it work out for the Dems in 2004 to not get Ohio or Fla in the dem column?

this is delusional.

fly

[9119495]

7. Check the states listed in the post. Collectively they are more

than Florida and Ohio combined. Can we really trust elections in OH and FL?

[EmperorHasNoClothes]

6. Obama has the advantage in the big cities in Ohio

Neither one is going to win the rural areas, which is where Hillary won in the primary.

[GOPBasher]

8. If we just look at polls, we can see Obama always does better than Clinton

against the GOP.

[Apollo11]

11. Hillary's numbers have improved a lot in recent days.

The following is based on the results of Rasmussen Reports rolling polls. The pattern since Feb 5th is very interesting.

Around 3 weeks ago, Obama was beating McCain by up to 8 points. Hillary was losing to McCain by up to 6 points. So it looked like only Obama could beat McCain! B-)

Now, McCain beats Obama by 5 points, but Hillary is almost tied with McCain. So maybe Hillary is the strongest candidate to go up against John McCain? :eyes:

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/general_election_match_up_history

[Mimosa]

9. THE FIX IS IN

Kristopher I agree. I fear that the FIX is in. ~crying~

[kristopher]

10. There are a lot of things I don't like about Clinton

But I would accept her as a candidate if she were to win the election.

But I simply do not believe she can win. I believe, absolutely and completely that her health care plan is a guaranteed ticket to defeat. It is an issue tailor made to stoke every fear the right has ever entertained about the "left". Tackling health care is hard enough, but the mandate being front and center dooms her candidacy. If I were Karl Rove and I were able to write one thing into her policy platform, mandated garnishments and penalties for being poor would be about the best thing I think I could come up with to ensure her defeat.