Analysis: Al-Sadr in trouble, Iraq headed for meltdown

[villager]

Analysis: Al-Sadr in trouble, Iraq headed for meltdown


(CNN) -- The fighting among Shiite militias and government troops in Basra is a glimpse of Iraq's future, and pivotal cleric Muqtada al-Sadr is in deep trouble, according to two CNN correspondents and a CNN military analyst.

The fiery religious leader has a loyal following in Baghdad's Sadr City neighborhood and other enclaves thanks to generous social programs, but his political movement, his Mehdi Army militia and the cease-fire al-Sadr recently extended are no match for Iranian intrigue, according to CNN's experts.

"Al-Sadr is involved in a very complicated relationship with the Iranians," said CNN Baghdad correspondent Michael Ware. "The Iranians do provide funding and support for his militia, yet at the same time they're trying to rein him in and get him to adopt a certain political agenda, which from time to time he resists."

Ware said Iran wants to use al-Sadr's populist base to advance its agenda in Iraq. "However, they don't want to see him get too big for his boots or to rise to a position where they can no longer have sway over him."

Iran has weakened al-Sadr by encouraging dissension within his Mehdi Army and backing hardliners -- known as the Special Groups -- who break away and keep up the fight against the U.S. occupation, Ware said.

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http://edition.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/meast/03/27/basra.analysis/?iref=mpstoryview

[MADem]

1. Al Sadr Thinks he's the Ayatullah Khomeini of Eye Rack...really.

With a dash of 'thug' thrown in, of course. This is old, but it gives an insight into his worldview:

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/09/11/weekinreview/11smith.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

Many analysts who follow Mr. Sadr's evolving role say that he still envisions a Shiite theocracy over all of the country. "He sees himself as the Khomeini of Iraq," said Amatzia Baram, an expert on Iraqi Shiite politics who is at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in Washington. Mr. Sadr's followers play down that goal but don't deny it. "Religion is higher than everything," said an aide, Sahib al-Ameri, at Mr. Sadr's home on a recent Saturday. "The most important thing is the dominance of religion."

But Mr. Sadr, the son of a revered ayatollah who himself lacks the customary academic credentials of a top cleric, seems to be calculating that to get where he wants, he must first dominate rival Shiite factions.

[MISSDem]

2. It is now a civil war between the Shia

and al-Sadr is not in control.

[cliss]

3. I don't agree with this assessment.

Muqtada al Sadr is the #2 Man in Iraq. The # 1 man is the Grand Ayatollah Al Sistani, an Iranian.
Al Sistani is the spiritual leader of that country. Whatever he says, gets done. The US understands this, and that's why they had to concede to national elections a few years ago. It was incrediby interesting to watch Bush "take the credit for bringing democracy to Iraq" when it was in fact a demand by Al Sistani.

Muqtada al Sadr is seen as the Junior Leader, and he's a survivor. He's been shot at, the victim of several assassination attempts. He's gotten away just in the nick of time.
He's an incredibly powerful man. He's clever, he's shrewd and the US underestimates him at their own peril.

He has the support of the people. Take a guess as to who's in the strongest position here.

[MISSDem]

4. I'm not sure of that. When al Sistani appealed for calm during

one of the uprisings it did not happen until al Sadr asked for it. al Sistani said he is out of politics now and will only help with religous questions.