Economy Down, Crime Up

[flashl]

by Michael J. Panzner

I have often made the case that increasingly difficult economic times will spur an increase in crime, especially opportunistic acts by desperate but otherwise law-abiding individuals. Yet while that might seem self evident, there is some debate about it.

Some criminologists have argued, for example, that the link is weak. Among other things, they cite the fact that crime rates rose during the early years of the Great Depression but then fell. Others give equal weight to factors such as the "broken window" theory (for more about that, see Malcolm Gladwell's 1996 New Yorker article, "The Tipping Point").

While those arguments have merit, it's hard to dismiss the connection between incentives (e.g., like the need to feed your family) and human behavior (just think about all the bad loans that the financial community made because of the fees and bonuses involved and the sense that they couldn't lose because the risk was supposedly shifted elsewhere).

In fact, as I noted in Chapter 11 of Financial Armageddon, "sociologist Steven Box outlined a strong link between illegal activity and unemployment, poverty, and heightened competition in his 1977 book, Recession, Crime, and Punishment. Based on studies undertaken in the United States and elsewhere, Box concluded that a 'deterioration in material circumstances does lead to more crime.'"

Bearing in mind that coincidence does not equal causation, the following report by Christine Dugas of USA Today, "More Consumers, Workers Shoplift as Economy Slows," doesn't seem at all surprising.

...

As long as the economy remains weak, many experts think the trend will persist.

"When the economy is down, shoplifting and other crime go up," says Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Economy.com. "People are losing jobs or moving from a full-time to a part-time job. But they still have the mortgage to pay and the credit cards to pay."

Financial Armageddon

[PDJane]

1. That comes under the heading of .......

Magnificent Grasp of the Perfectly Apparent, George.

[Warpy]

2. They just nailed a particularly heinous copper thief here

He was stealing the wiring to the gates at railroad crossings. He'd been at it for weeks.

We're just lucky that bastard didn't cause a horrible tragedy.

[Demeter]

3. The Crime Started Long Before the Economy Crumbled

Enron, anyone? That's what started the Greater Depression we are sinking into: corporate crime.