$7 gas by 2010, 10 million cars off the road, 1970s style GDP growth

[RedEarth]

CIBC World Markets has just released a stunning yet detailed economic analysis of near-term oil prices and impacts.



The two key pieces are “Getting off the Road–Adjusting to $7 per Gallon Gas in America” and “Oil and Growth–That 70s show Re-Run“. Main points:

“That additional 200,000 barrels per day pledged from Saudi Arabia is a pittance compared to the four million barrels per day this year that depletion will hive off world production. What little increase in production Saudi is capable of will probably all be gobbled up by that country’s own voracious appetite for energy.”

China’s recent oil subsidy drop? Another yawner: “Most North Americans would gladly line up at the pumps for China’s now $3.25 a gallon gas.”

“The only supply response to date has been yet another round of cost overruns and lengthy project delays running the gamut from Canadian oil sands to deepwater Gulf of Mexico wells.”

“With the basic laws of supply and demand no longer operative in crude oil markets,” CIBC is”compelled to once again raise our target prices for oil” to “an average price of $200 per barrel by 2010.” That “should translate into a near-$7 per gallon pump price within two years, a 70% increase from today’s already record levels.”

“Higher oil prices spell stagflation for the US economy next year” and beyond. The report has a good analysis of why “The US economy has managed to avoid feeling the full brunt of oil prices over the last few years, but 2009 will be the year that its luck runs out.”

The analysis seems very solid and suggests the only thing that can “save” us from near-$7 gas by 2010 is a major global recession, but even that would only be a temporary respite. The implications for Detroit is staggering:



“Over the next four years, we are likely to witness the greatest mass exodus of vehicles off America’s highways in history. By 2012, there should be some 10 million fewer vehicles on American roadways than there are today–a decline that dwarfs all previous adjustments including those during the two OPEC oil shocks.” The report has a very interesting analysis of vehicle scrappage trends versus new vehicle sales that I hadn’t seen before. This is going to be a double whammy on Detroit — lower overall vehicle sales, and plummeting SUV and light-truck sales.



................more.............

http://climateprogress.org/2008/06/26/must-read-cibc-report-7-gas-by-2010-10-million-cars-off-the-road-1970s-style-gdp-growth/

[kestrel91316]

1. The line on that "Plunging SUV Sales" chart looks suspiciously

like it's dropping off a cliff, and I have to laugh at the "projected" part.

[Demeter]

2. I Learned to Drive in the 70's

What a horrid time.

[MasonJar]

3. All the lies about President Carter are coming home to settle on the oil

cadre of pResident GWB. But will the MSM notice?