A diplomatic message in Iran's missiles?

[LaStrega]

ANALYSIS: Iran's fiery show of force may be part of a traditional diplomatic dance: Show your gruff exterior before admitting your willingness to change.

By GLENN KESSLER, Washington Post

Last update: July 10, 2008 - 9:49 PM

WASHINGTON - Last week, various Iranian officials made positive comments about a new diplomatic outreach by the United States and its allies, suggesting negotiations on Iran's nuclear program might be possible. This week, Iran twice test-fired medium- and long-range missiles, bluntly warning that thousands more were ready to launched.

The conflicting signals are typical of the opaque Islamic republic, with its many competing power centers and complex system of government. But demonstrating strength before negotiations also is a long-tested diplomatic formula, suggesting the missile launches and harsh rhetoric also could be a sign that Iran could be suddenly open to bargaining.

"The Iranian calculation is they need a show of strength," said Mehrzad Boroujerdi, director of Middle Eastern studies at Syracuse University's Maxwell School. "They are ready for diplomacy and willing to talk, but they are also saying you can't treat us a like a weak third-tier state."

Former Middle East envoy Dennis Ross said the varying messages may reflect "both sides of the Iranian leadership," but also send a single message: "It makes no sense to attack us -- we can talk and we can also make things really horrible."

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