Foreign Policy In Focus: An Uncomfortable Conversation about Nukes

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An Uncomfortable Conversation about Nukes

Conn Hallinan | July 17, 2008

Why are Henry Kissinger, George Shultz, William Perry, and Sam Nunn writing opinion pieces in the Wall Street Journal calling for the abolition of nuclear weapons? Keep in mind, these four people are not just major defense hawks. People like Kissinger and Nunn helped push through the single most dangerous and destabilizing innovation in nuclear weaponry, the arming of missiles with multiple warheads. All four have supported every conflict the United States has engaged in since World War II, all have enthusiastically supported nuclear weapons, and none has suddenly gone kumbaya on us.

But all four have concluded that nuclear weapons no longer serve the interests of the great powers. Why the change of mind? The answer has some disquieting aspects.

The sudden concern with nuclear weapons is, in large part, due to the steady erosion of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and the real danger that the Big Five -- China, Russia, the United States, France, and Britain -- may one day confront a host of nations similarly armed. Countries like Brazil, Argentina, Syria, Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Japan, South Korea, Egypt, Taiwan, and South Africa could all produce nuclear weapons in less than a decade if they wanted to. Several of these countries had begun the process before mothballing their programs several decades ago. Israel, Pakistan, and India, of course, already have nuclear weapons.

In the past, wars with countries like Vietnam, Afghanistan, and Iraq involved the loss of life and wealth -- far greater for them than for us -- but these countries never presented a serious obstacle to our use of military power. We might not “win” these wars in the conventional sense of the word, but none of these nations could prevent the United States from attacking them.

The acquisition of nuclear weapons has changed all that.

The Bush administration has invaded one member of its “axis of evil” and is threatening to attack a second, Iran. However, it is treading lightly in Northeast Asia. The Bush administration demonizes North Korea, but it has been careful not to let things get out of hand. Of course there are numerous reasons why White House rhetoric has not led to a war on the Korean peninsula, some of which have nothing to do with the fact that the North Koreans have nuclear weapons. But it is hard to argue with the conclusion that North Korea’s nuclear weapons program has played a role in holding the U.S. military at bay. It is a powerful lesson for small countries threatened by bigger ones and an uncomfortable intervention in the non-proliferation debate.

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http://www.fpif.org/fpiftxt/5381