How big will Democratic gains be this fall?
A panel of experts projects the number of seats Democrats will add in the House in November -- and which Democrats are most likely to lose their jobs.
Editor's note: Listen to a podcast of this round table at link~
By Thomas Schaller
July 21, 2008 |
In the first of two Salon conversations forecasting the November congressional elections, three experts -- Stu Rothenberg, Tim Sahd and David Wasserman -- share their opinions about the prospects for Democratic gains in the House. For two decades, Rothenberg has been editor and publisher of the Rothenberg Political Report, a nonpartisan political newsletter covering House, Senate and gubernatorial campaigns as well as the race for the presidency. Sahd is the editor of House Race Hotline, a daily update on congressional political campaigns. Wasserman is the House editor of the Cook Political Report, a publication providing analysis of presidential, Senate, House and gubernatorial races. They spoke to Salon by phone. (A separate round table about the Senate will be published later this week.)
Tom Schaller: Welcome to you all. I recently spoke with Democratic Congressional Campaign chairman Chris Van Hollen, who in a bit of expectations game playing pointed out that after a "wave" election, the party that benefited from that wave historically loses net seats in the House in the next cycle. I wondered if you guys think that the 30-seat gain for the Democrats' last cycle was a wave election. And in your view, whether you think it was a wave election or not, is it likely or unlikely that the Democrats can put together another back-to-back cycle with a double-digit seat gain in November? We'll start with Stu.
Stu Rothenberg: Yes, I think the last election was a wave election. It was about a national theme, which is change and throw the guys who are in out, and this benefited the Democrats. I think frankly, we are in a very similar environment. If anything, the president's numbers have deteriorated. The Republican brand, I hate to use that phrase because it's now become too commonplace, but the Republican Party's reputation has been eroded further. I think Democrats still have the advantage of being the change party. Given that, we are either in an extended 2006 election cycle which has gone into 2007 and the first half of 2008, or we are in a new cycle and an identical one. I think it can produce Democratic gains in the double digits.
Schaller: Tim, is this the second ripple of that wave or is it going to quell this time around?
Tim Sahd: Oh no, I agree with Stu: 2006 was by any definition a wave. And 2008, things are looking worse. If you look at the generic ballot, Democrats are up 15, 18 points in some polls. Things are looking worse or about the same for Republicans as they did in 2006. That doesn't seem to be quelling. That doesn't mean that Democrats are going to see a 30-seat pickup. The dynamics this year are a bit different in that they have to hold some seats. It won't be a 30-seat pickup, but that doesn't mean that the environment isn't as bad for Republicans as it was in 2006.
David Wasserman:: As usual, Stu and Tim are right. I think when we look at the 2008 House elections and compare them to the previous elections, sure 2008 is a presidential year, but the environment looks a lot more like 2006 than 2004. In 2004, last time we had a top-of-the-ticket presidential race, we were only paying attention to possibly 40 to 50 congressional elections. This time around we're paying attention to I'd say somewhere between 70 and 100. But I think if there has been change between the 2006 and 2008 environments, it's that the unpopularity of the president and the war has seeped like an inkblot into some of the redder districts across the country.
Schaller: Let me follow this up with Stu and Tim. Are there really more districts in play this cycle than last cycle, even though I don't see anyone calling for a 30-seat pickup?
Rothenberg: Right now, we have about 65 races on our list of races in play. I think David is correct about the numbers. We have races that we're watching that are not on our list at the moment because we don't see the Democrat actually having a chance to win. We see Democrats having a chance in a bunch of other districts to close the gap significantly. But we're watching at least another 20 races. We're watching 85 or 90 races. I don't expect Democratic gains to be that big. I think Tim was right when he said that 30 seats seems like quite a stretch.
But you have to put everything in context. The Republicans are down now to around 200 seats, they've already lost a lot of the marginal seats they once held, Democratic seats they once held. There isn't a lot of fat left. It's going to be a good Democratic year. The question: Is it going to be a really memorable Democratic year, a great Democratic year? How good is good? I think the Democrats have succeeded in recruiting candidates in districts that we haven't seen as being even competitive or marginally competitive for many years. I think the Democrats have done a terrific job putting additional seats in play.
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http://www.salon.com/news/feature/2008/07/21/house_roundtable/
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