Iraq: Poised to Explode

[babylonsister]

Iraq: Poised to Explode
posted by Robert Dreyfuss on 07/27/2008 @ 1:02pm



While everyone's looking at Iraq's effect on American politics -- and whether or not John McCain and Barack Obama are converging on a policy that combines a flexible timetable with a vague, and long-lasting, residual force -- let's take a look instead at Iraqi politics. The picture isn't pretty.

Despite the Optimism of the Neocons, which has pushed mainstream media coverage to be increasingly flowery about Iraq's political progress, in fact the country is poised to explode. Even before the November election. And for McCain and Obama, the problem is that Iran has many of the cards in its hands. Depending on its choosing, between now and November Iran can help stabilize the war in Iraq -- mostly by urging the Iraqi Shiites to behave themselves -- or it can make things a lot more violent.

There are at least three flashpoints for an explosion, any or all of which could blow up over the next couple of months. (Way to go, Surgin' Generals!) The first is the brewing crisis over Kirkuk, where the pushy Kurds are demanding control and Iraq's Arabs are resisting. The second is in the west, and Anbar, where the US-backed Sons of Iraq sahwa ("Awakening") movement is moving to take power against the Iraqi Islamic Party, a fundamentalist Sunni bloc. And third is the restive Mahdi Army of Muqtada al-Sadr, which is chafing at gains made by its Iranian-backed rival, the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI).

Perhaps the issue of KIrkuk and the Kurds is most dangerous. Last week, the Kurds walked out of parliament to protest a law passed by parliament to govern the provincial elections. The law passed 127-13, but it was vetoed by President Jalal Talabani, a Kurd. Juan Cole, the astute observer, says : "The conflict between Kurds and Arabs over Kirkuk is a crisis waiting to happen." He cites Al-Hayat, an Iraqi newspaper, as claiming that not only do the Kurds want to control Kirkuk, an oil-rich province in Iraq's north, but they plan to annex three other provinces where Kurds live: Diyala, Salahuddin, and Ninewa. That's not likely, but they do want Kirkuk, and the vetoed election law would have limited the Kurds' ability to press their gains there.

more...

http://www.thenation.com/blogs/dreyfuss/339676

[TwilightGardener]

1. Hope not, or we'll never leave. We have to get out while the getting's good.

[dkf]

2. Well those are the problems that we envisioned would be there from the beginning.

It was always unsolvable.

[crim son]

3. And here's what's critical;

the fact that it would be unsolvable was evident even before we invaded. Evident to me and so surely evident to those who planned the invasion. We have been betrayed by our government from day one.
On edit: Finished the article. Suddenly the urgent need to attack Iran becomes clear.

[dkf]

4. But they never wanted to get out.

They wanted to control the oil that is why it is in fact rather brilliant in a sick way.

[crim son]

6. Right.

But we were told differently.

[pokercat999]

8. No it's not, Sen. Biden has been suggesting partition

for years now.

A side note: I have never heard anyone link the oil excutives much publized secret meetings with Cheney and the Iraq war. My guess is what went down is the oil execs told Cheney they needed to secure an oil supply they could control completely (in light of peak oil) and he tried to give them Iraq.

[dkf]

9. If you partition the Kurds, you start a whole new quandry.

The Kurds want their own country, along with part of Turkey.

And I'm not sure if every place has been ethnically "cleansed" but I imagine you'd still need to move a lot of people into their partitioned area.

[tblue37]

12. I have read articles that say a map of Iraq's oil regions figured heavily

in those meetings.

[opihimoimoi]

5. I fucking knew it...surge success my ass. Them Cainites touting success are premature

regardless of who doing the fighting, insurgents or domestic, crap is about to hit the fan...just wait till we leave....the need for greed is gonna overwhelm unless there is a peace plan that is enduring....

[Hyuke4]

7. Calm before the storm

I second this assessment too.This admin is crowing about how successfully the surge is,and taking all the credit,talking about "We are winning,Victory and all that stuff,but without the key element of the Iraqis themselves which is the real reason for any success there now,like the Sunni's who we are paying,and who decided to purge Al quieda, and co operation by Al Sadr and his people,This so called surge would be a total failure.
So most of the Credit goes to them,the Iraqis themselves,while these warmongers are all beating their chest, and taking all the Credit.
Also I think it worked largely because the Sunni areas were purged of Shiites and vice Versa.So this talk of winning is all a mirage.
Another point is We did not go into Iraq with any intention of ever leaving,that is why they are not happy,dint like the fact of a timetable,they are trying to get Maliki to give us permission to stay there forever,if this was the case there would never build the largest embassy in the world there,They say that Iraq is free and want us to believe that Iraq is a sovereign state,it is not.
In reality,I don't see us leaving there no matter who wins this election,we wont leave until we are eventually driven out at a cost of many more lives.
The Soviets found that out,No occupiers can,or will successfully occupy Arab lands forever.

[Spinzonner]

10. Didn't the British find that out before the Soviets

Just bands of idiots finding the same thing out over and over.

[Doctor_J]

11. We've been hearing this for years

Just as the other side should stop talking about what a thundering success the invasion's been (never mind the 1,000,000+ dead and 4,000,000+ displaced), ours needs to stop talking about how it's going to explode. It makes the real leftist experts on the ME like Juan Cole get overlooked.

[SunDrop23]

13. Oh pish posh. Things are grrrrrrreat in Iraq. John "Crash" McCain said so. (n/t)

[AwakeAtLast]

14. But, but, THE SURGE IS WORKING!!!

ALL IS WELL, THE SURGE IS WORKING!




THE SURGE IS WOOOOORRRRKING!!!!





:evilgrin:

[depakid]

15. Latest: Bomb Attacks in Baghdad and Kirkuk Kill Dozens

Female bombers struck Kurdish political protesters in Kirkuk and Shiite pilgrims in Baghdad on Monday morning, leaving at least 61 people dead and 238 wounded in one of the bloodiest sequences of attacks in Iraq this year.

In the northern city of Kirkuk, at least 29 people were killed and 174 wounded, after a female suicide bomber blew herself up amid thousands of Kurdish demonstrators and Kurds suspicious of Turkmen attacked the headquarters of Turkmen political parties.

In the attacks in Baghdad, three women used suicide vests and a bomb in a bag to make strikes just minutes apart, killing 32 people, all apparently Shiite pilgrims marching in a festival, according to an official at the Interior Ministry. The dead included at least four children, one of them an infant, and there were at least 64 other people wounded, according to police officials and witnesses.

Late on Monday, the government announced a 24-hour curfew in Baghdad, banning all vehicle movement from 5 a.m. on Tuesday. The sudden move, which came on a day of some of the worst violence in Iraq for months, was reminiscent of Baghdad’s earlier, more violent days, when the government, struggling to control bombings, would regularly close down the city.

More: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/29/world/middleeast/29iraq.html?em&ex=1217390400&en=0a1474ee4e91d237&ei=5087%0A