THE MATH Weekly – For the Week Ending Sunday, Sept 28 – Obama 339, McCain 199

[phrigndumass]

THE MATH Weekly – For the Week Ending Sunday, September 28, 2008


Contents:
1. Current Stats
2. Electoral Votes
3. Strength of Electoral Votes
4. Electoral Votes Comparison to 2004
5. Popular Vote
6. National Polls
7. Obama’s Seventeen
8. Trading and the Wigand Electoral Average
9. This Week’s State Polls (Detail)
10. Probabilities and Potentials
11. Sources and Links







1. Current Stats

With only 37 days remaining until the election, Barack Obama is taking full advantage of a bad two-week period for the McCain Campaign. With the economy tanking and a massive $700 billion bailout package requested for Wall Street, Obama is leaping in both the national polls and the state polls and making gains among male voters and retired voters. Obama is now leading in the electoral vote count (339 electoral votes, up from 285 last week) and he retakes the lead this week in the popular vote from the state polls by 0.7%. His polling numbers are expected to get better after a winning performance in the first debate Friday evening.

States moving to the left this week are: Colorado (9), Michigan (17), Missouri (11), North Carolina (15), Oregon (7), Virginia (13) and Wisconsin (10). States moving to the right this week are: Louisiana (9), Minnesota (10) and Montana (3). North Carolina and Virginia were the only states to switch sides this week.


Election Day: Tuesday, November 4, 2008


Number of Days Until the Election: 37 days


Current Projected Electoral Votes:
Obama – 339
McCain – 199
Needed to Win – 270


Current Projected Popular Vote:
Obama – 59,718,447 … (47.1%) … (+883,977)
McCain – 58,834,471 … (46.4%)
Barr – 2,981,160 … (2.4%)
Nader – 2,596,439 … (2.0%)
McKinney – 253,442 … (0.2%)
Undecided/Other – 2,590,483 … (2.0%)


Swing States Leaning:
Obama – 53.87%
McCain – 46.13%


Projected Popular Vote if Undecideds Break the Same as Swing States:
Obama – 61,120,000 … (48.2%) … (+1,100,000)
McCain – 60,020,000 … (47.4%)
All Others – 4,891,000 … (4.4%)


Probability of Obama Win – 83.6% (if the election were held today)


Strength of Projection – 96.7%



^ FIGURE 1a. This is what we refer to as the “Widget”. In the white section, it shows Obama’s and McCain’s electoral vote projection from three different sources. 270 would be a majority. In the yellow section, it shows three sources of trading and averages for the candidates. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority. Intrade shows the trading, while RCP-av shows the aggregate average of all the state polls. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states.



^ FIGURE 1b. This chart shows the seats projected to be picked up by Democrats in November in Congress. The projection is from Electionprojection.com.




2. Electoral Votes (270 needed to win)

Obama is currently winning 44.2% of the electoral votes outside of the margin of error, compared to McCain’s 30.3%. The number of electoral votes within the margin of error comes to about one-fourth of the total this week. Once we consider Obama’s lead in the swing states (53.9%-46.1%) and add how well he is doing in the states within the margin of error (momentum), his electoral vote projection arrives at 339, up from 285 last week.



^ FIGURE 2a. This chart shows the projected electoral votes for each candidate outside of the margin of error (+/- 4.0%). A pie chart is used to illustrate the percentage of the total 538 electoral votes up for grabs this year.



^ FIGURE 2b. This graph shows the daily tracking of Obama’s projected electoral votes from three sources. 270 is a majority of the electoral votes. The blue line shows daily tracking from 538.com, which projects what the outcome should be on election day. The red line shows daily tracking from Electoral-Vote.com, which shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break evenly. The green line is my own projection, and it shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break the same way as the swing states. A trend line is used (dashed green line) to show the average progress since May 19 and the possible route for the next seven days.







3. Strength of Electoral Votes

The electoral votes from states within the margin of error kept the same number this week, 137 electoral votes, but the states were shuffled. Minnesota (10), Missouri (11) and North Carolina (15) moved into the margin of error this week, while Colorado (9), Michigan (17) and Wisconsin (10) moved out.



^ FIGURE 3a. This chart shows the strength of the projected electoral votes for each candidate outside of the margin of error (+/- 4.0%). A pie chart is used to illustrate the overall percentage of the electoral votes in each category. “Strong” means winning electoral votes from a state by a greater than 10% margin. “Weak” means winning electoral votes from a state by a margin of 5% to 9%. Any margin less than 5% is considered within the margin of error.



^ FIGURE 3b. This graph shows the weekly tracking of the five categories of strength for the electoral votes. The dark blue line is the weekly tracking for electoral votes within the Strong Obama category (Obama leading by 10% or greater). The light blue line is the weekly tracking for electoral votes within the Weak Obama category (Obama leading between 5% and 9%). The yellow line is the weekly tracking for electoral votes within the margin of error (either candidate leading by 4% or less). The pink line is the weekly tracking for electoral votes within the Weak McCain category (McCain leading between 5% and 9%). The red line is the weekly tracking for electoral votes within the Strong McCain category (McCain leading by 10% or greater).



^ FIGURE 3c. This chart shows the strength of the projected electoral votes for each candidate sorted into each category. “Strong” means winning electoral votes from a state by a greater than 10% margin. “Weak” means winning electoral votes from a state by a margin of 5% to 9%. Any margin less than 5% is considered within the margin of error and is referred to as “Lean.”




4. Electoral Votes Comparison to 2004

At this point in 2004, John Kerry was trailing George W. Bush 207 electoral votes to 316 electoral votes, with 14 tied. Kerry was sinking in the polls with all eyes on the first debate.

Comparing Obama’s projection to Kerry’s in 2004, we see that Obama has 41 more Strong electoral votes now than Kerry had at this point then. And Obama has 54 more Weak electoral votes than Kerry had then. There are also 17 fewer electoral votes within the margin of error than there were at this point in 2004. Bush was stronger in 2004 than McCain is now, as Bush had 5 more Strong electoral votes and 73 more Weak electoral votes then.



^ FIGURE 4a. Electoral-Vote.com is a valuable source for electoral vote tracking. This graph shows the electoral progress of the 2004 election between John Kerry and George Bush, along with descriptions of factors that seems to have changed the course of the race. I include on the left side a snapshot of the electoral vote projection for each candidate on this date back in 2004.



^ FIGURE 4b. This chart shows the strength of the projected electoral votes for each candidate outside of the margin of error (+/- 4.0%) on this date in 2004 (Kerry vs. Bush). A pie chart is used to illustrate the overall percentage of the electoral votes in each category. “Strong” means winning electoral votes from a state by a greater than 10% margin. “Weak means winning electoral votes from a state by a margin of 5% to 9%. Any margin less than 5% is considered within the margin of error.



^ FIGURE 4c. This graph shows Obama’s green line and red line from the previous graph, and compares it to John Kerry’s 2004 progress (orange line) as shown from Electoral-Vote.com. (Both the red line and the orange line show data from Electoral-Vote.com.) Trend lines are used to plot a possible route for these projections for the near future.




5. Popular Vote

Obama is currently projected to win 47.1% of the popular vote, and he is leading McCain by 0.7%. Barr is taking 2.4% of the vote, while Nader is polling at 2.0% and McKinney is polling at 0.2%. The percentage of Undecideds dropped this week to 2.0%. Factoring in the swing states to get an idea how the Undecideds will vote, Obama’s projected popular vote margin increases to 0.8%.



^ FIGURE 5a. This chart shows the percentage of the projected popular vote for each candidate with a percentage still undecided. A pie chart is used to illustrate the percentage of the projected 126 million votes up for grabs this year.



^ FIGURE 5b. I am projecting 126 million votes on election day, which is the total 2004 votes plus population growth for each state. A total projected popular vote is calculated for each candidate based on projected votes on election day this year multiplied by each state’s current poll results. This graph shows the daily tracking of the popular vote calculations in millions as well as the percentages. The scale is between 0 and 126.75 (in millions), and a majority of votes (half) would be 63,375,000 votes.



^ FIGURE 5c. I am projecting 126 million votes on election day, which is the total 2004 votes plus population growth for each state. A total projected popular vote is calculated for each candidate based on projected votes on election day this year multiplied by each state’s current poll results. This graph shows the weekly tracking of the total popular vote percentages, and compares them to the final percentages received by past Democratic candidates. The scale is 0 to 100%, with a majority being 50%.



^ FIGURE 5d. This graph from FiveThirtyEight.com shows a correlation between a candidate’s lead in the popular vote and that candidate’s probability of winning the electoral vote and the election, if the election were held today.




6. National Polls

The national daily tracking polls are a good indicator of the projected popular vote, and there is a correlation between the lead in popular vote and the probability of winning the electoral vote. A three-point lead in a national poll would correlate to a 97% probability of winning the electoral vote, according to FiveThirtyEight.com.

Gallup’s daily tracking average for Obama falls one percentage point to 49% this week, while Rasmussen’s daily tracking average for Obama jumps two percentage points to 50%. Meanwhile, DailyKos & Research 2000’s daily tracking average for Obama slips one percentage point to 49% and the Diageo/Hotline daily tracking average for Obama moves up three percentage points to 48%. The Real Clear Politics Average this week is 47.9% for Obama, which is an increase of 0.5% from last week. Obama is now leading McCain in Gallup by 5%, leading by 6% in Rasmussen, leading by 6% in Research 2000, leading by 5% in Hotline and leading by 4.3% in RCP.

The Daily Trackers showed Obama leading by 2.8% last week as a whole, but his lead jumps on average to 4.5% in the Daily Trackers this week. That’s a 1.7% turnaround in one week. In the Big 12 National Monthly Polls, Obama’s lead grew from 1.0% last week to 3.3% this week on average. Looking at all national polling together, Obama went from leading by 1.6% overall last week to leading by 3.7% overall this week, a jump of 2.1%.



^ FIGURE 6a. This chart compares each polling agency’s latest polls with their averages for each candidate this year. The top section of the chart compares the Daily Tracking polls and my own projected popular vote for each candidate. The bottom section of the chart compares the National Tracking polls (usually released monthly). Each section is totaled and averaged, and an overall average is shown at the very bottom of the chart. The latest polls released for each polling agency are displayed in the center columns for each candidate, as well as Obama’s current lead in those polls (a negative number denotes Obama trailing McCain in that poll). The columns on the right show each polling agency’s averaged results since May 1.



^ FIGURE 6b. Obama’s cumulative lead in the national daily tracking polls is illustrated in this graph. Showing it this way helps us see the Obama Campaign’s momentum shifts much easier over time.



^ FIGURE 6c. The national daily tracking polls are indicators of the potential popular vote lead for a candidate. This graph compares the trend lines of Obama’s lead in the national daily tracking polls and averages with my projected trend line of Obama’s lead in the popular vote. The red line shows Obama’s trend lead over McCain from Gallup Daily Tracking polls. The purple line shows Obama’s trend lead over McCain from Rasmussen Daily Tracking polls (with leaners). The blue line shows Obama’s trend lead over McCain from Real Clear Politics’ aggregate state poll average. The dark green line shows Obama’s trend lead over McCain from my daily projection of each candidate’s popular vote, based on state polls and projected votes on election day in each state. The light green line shows my actual daily tracking of Obama’s popular vote lead over McCain. Taking all these daily tracking items together, we can see a true range of Obama’s lead over McCain over time and a possible trend for the future of this race.




7. Obama’s Seventeen

Overall trading for the 17 states that the Obama Campaign is targeting this year jumped 120.90 points to 891.10 this week, an increase of 7.1%. This is above the majority mark of 850.00. All states gained ground this week except for Montana (3).

Figure 7c below shows how all 17 states are polling together as a group over time. Barack Obama’s trend line is soaring above 48% in that graph, while John McCain’s trend line is plummeting below 43%.



^ FIGURE 7a. The “Obama Seventeen” is the group of 17 states where the Obama campaign is concentrating much of its efforts this year. This widget shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the seventeen swing states are listed below the indicator’s current percentage of the total 1700 possible. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority. The number of electoral votes for each state is shown in the left margin, and the most recent polling for each state is shown in the far right column.



^ FIGURE 7b. This graph shows the daily tracking of “Obama’s Seventeen” swing states total from the Obama’s Seventeen widget above. To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1700.



^ FIGURE 7c. This graph plots all of the state polling results for Obama’s Seventeen swing states, and displays a trend line to illustrate each candidate’s progress in these states as a group.




8. Trading and the Wigand Electoral Average

Obama’s Intrade shares closed at 56.4, up from 51.2 last week. His shares on Rasmussen Markets rose from 51.0 to 57.5 this week. Our Wigand Electoral Average leaped from 47.21 last week to 52.23 this week for Obama, as Virginia and North Carolina moved into Obama’s territory and Ohio began to trade with an Obama majority.

Overall trading for our 12 swing states in the Wigand Electoral Average jumps 104.60 this week to 646.40 for Obama, which is above the majority mark of 600.00. All states gained ground this week. Obama is leading McCain overall in our 12 swing states by a margin of 53.9% to 46.1%. This is up 7.7 percentage points from last week for Obama.



^ FIGURE 8a. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the twelve swing states are listed below the indicator’s current score. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority.



^ FIGURE 8b. This graph shows the daily tracking of the swing states total from the Wigand Electoral Average widget above (second chart from the top). The scale is 0 to 1200, with 600 being a majority. To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1200.



^ FIGURE 8c. Wigand vs. Trading and Real Clear Politics Average. The Wigand Electoral Average uses both poll averages and trading (swing states), and this graph compares it to the national daily tracking average from Real Clear Politics, as well as the closing trading figures from Intrade (people buying shares with real money) and Rasmussen Markets (people using fake money).



^ FIGURE 8d. This graph shows the daily tracking of each swing state’s closing figure on Intrade. The scale is 0 to 100 with 50 being a majority. I commonly refer to the range from 40.00 to 60.00 as “The Zone” because the states in The Zone are true swing states this year.




9. This Week’s State Polls (Detail)


Scale:
Strong Obama (10% or greater)
Weak Obama (5% to 9%)
Lean Obama (0% to 4%)
Lean McCain (0% to 4%)
Weak McCain (5% to 9%)
Strong McCain (10% or greater)



^ Probability of winning a state, found by cross-referencing a
candidate’s percentage lead with the poll’s margin of error.


Alabama Obama 25, McCain 52 (Press-Register, 9/15, +/- 5.0, 406 LV)
Alabama Obama 39, McCain 60 (Rasmussen, 9/22, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Alaska Obama 37, McCain 55 (Farleigh Dickinson, 9/19, +/- 4.0, 601 LV)
Arkansas Obama 41, McCain 53 (American Research Group, 9/22, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Arkansas Obama 42, McCain 51 (Rasmussen, 9/22, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
California Obama 53, McCain 39 (American Research Group, 9/20, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
California Obama 56, McCain 39 (Rasmussen, 9/22, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
California Obama 53, McCain 43 (Survey USA, 9/24, +/- 3.9, 661 LV)
Colorado Obama 49, McCain 45 (Quinnipiac University, 9/21, +/- 2.6, 1418 LV)
Colorado Obama 51, McCain 44 (Public Policy Polling, 9/21, +/- 3.0, 1084 LV)
Colorado Obama 50, McCain 47 (Rasmussen, 9/23, +/- 4.0, 700 LV)
Colorado Obama 49, McCain 45, B1, N3, M0 (CNN/Time, 9/23, +/- 3.5, 794 LV)
Colorado Obama 50, McCain 41 (Insider Advantage, 9/23, +/- 4.5, 505 LV)
Colorado Obama 45, McCain 48 (American Research Group, 9/24, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Delaware Obama 56, McCain 36 (Farleigh Dickinson, 9/19, +/- 4.0, 601 LV)
Delaware Obama 57, McCain 37 (Survey USA, 9/23, +/- 3.7, 703 LV)
Florida Obama 45, McCain 47 (St. Petersburg Times et al, 9/17, +/- 3.5, 800 RV)
Florida Obama 45, McCain 46 (Research 2000, 9/18, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Florida Obama 47, McCain 45 (NBC News/Mason-Dixon, 9/18, +/- 4.0, 625 LV)
Florida Obama 46, McCain 51 (Fox News/Rasmussen, 9/21, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Florida Obama 45, McCain 48 (Strategic Vision, 9/23, +/- 3.0, 1200 LV)
Florida Obama 47, McCain 48 (Rasmussen, 9/24, +/- 4.0, 700 LV)
Florida Obama 47, McCain 46 (American Research Group, 9/24, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Georgia Obama 39, McCain 57 (American Research Group, 9/20, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Hawaii Obama 68, McCain 27 (Rasmussen, 9/23, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Iowa Obama 53, McCain 39 (Research 2000, 9/17, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Iowa Obama 51, McCain 44 (American Research Group, 9/20, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Iowa Obama 51, McCain 41 (Marist College, 9/21, +/- 4.5, 467 LV)
Iowa Obama 51, McCain 43 (Rasmussen, 9/25, +/- 4.0, 700 LV)
Kansas Obama 38, McCain 58 (Rasmussen, 9/22, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Kansas Obama 41, McCain 53 (Survey USA, 9/22, +/- 3.9, 666 LV)
Kentucky Obama 38, McCain 57 (Survey USA, 9/22, +/- 3.8, 672 LV)
Louisiana Obama 40, McCain 55 (Rasmussen, 9/25, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Maine Obama 49, McCain 44 (Survey USA, 9/23, +/- 3.8, 675 LV)
Maryland Obama 60, McCain 37 (Rasmussen, 9/20, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Massachusetts Obama 55, McCain 39 (American Research Group, 9/22, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Massachusetts Obama 58, McCain 38 (Rasmussen, 9/23, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Massachusetts Obama 55, McCain 39 (Survey USA, 9/23, +/- 3.8, 679 LV)
Michigan Obama 43, McCain 46 (MRG of Lansing, 9/17, +/- 4.0, 600 RV)
Michigan Obama 51, McCain 44 (Fox News/Rasmussen, 9/21, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Michigan Obama 48, McCain 44 (Quinnipiac University, 9/21, +/- 2.7, 1364 LV)
Michigan Obama 46, McCain 46 (NBC News/Mason-Dixon, 9/21, +/- 4.0, 625 LV)
Michigan Obama 48, McCain 38, B1, N2 (EPIC-MRA, 9/22, +/- 4.9, 400 LV)
Michigan Obama 47, McCain 39 (National Journal, 9/22, +/- 4.9, 406 RV)
Michigan Obama 49, McCain 43, B2, N3, M1 (CNN/Time, 9/23, +/- 3.5, 755 LV)
Michigan Obama 48, McCain 45 (Strategic Vision, 9/24, +/- 3.0, 1200 LV)
Michigan Obama 51, McCain 38 (Detroit Free Press, 9/24, +/- 4.0, 602 LV)
Minnesota Obama 52, McCain 44 (Rasmussen, 9/18, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Minnesota Obama 48, McCain 47 (American Research Group, 9/20, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Minnesota Obama 47, McCain 45 (Quinnipiac University, 9/21, +/- 2.7, 1301 LV)
Missouri Obama 46, McCain 47 (Research 2000, 9/24, +/- 3.5, 800 LV)
Missouri Obama 46, McCain 48 (Survey USA, 9/24, +/- 3.8, 705 LV)
Montana Obama 40, McCain 49, B1, N1, M0 (CNN/Time, 9/23, +/- 3.5, 737 LV)
Montana Obama 39, McCain 52 (Research 2000/DailyKos, 9/24, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Nevada Obama 47, McCain 45 (Project New West, 9/19, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Nevada Obama 45, McCain 46 (Suffolk University, 9/21, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
New Hampshire Obama 45, McCain 47 (University of New Hampshire, 9/17, +/- 4.4, 516 LV)
New Hampshire Obama 51, McCain 45 (Marist College, 9/21, +/- 4.0, 604 LV)
New Hampshire Obama 44, McCain 43 (National Journal, 9/22, +/- 4.9, 403 RV)
New Hampshire Obama 47, McCain 49 (Rasmussen, 9/23, +/- 4.0, 700 LV)
New Hampshire Obama 46, McCain 45 (Strategic Vision, 9/24, +/- 3.0, 1200 LV)
New Hampshire Obama 46, McCain 45 (Suffolk University, 9/24, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
New Hampshire Obama 48, McCain 44 (Research 2000, 9/24, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
New Jersey Obama 51, McCain 42 (American Research Group, 9/20, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
New Mexico Obama 53, McCain 42 (Public Policy Polling, 9/19, +/- 3.0, 1037 LV)
New York Obama 57, McCain 38 (Survey USA, 9/24, +/- 3.8, 668 LV)
North Carolina Obama 47, McCain 50 (Rasmussen, 9/18, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
North Carolina Obama 46, McCain 46, Barr 5 (Public Policy Polling, 9/19, +/- 3.0, 1060 LV)
North Carolina Obama 45, McCain 45 (Civitas/TelOpinion, 9/20, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
North Carolina Obama 49, McCain 47 (Rasmussen, 9/23, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Ohio Obama 42, McCain 48, Barr 1, Nader 4 (Univ of Cincinnati, 9/16, +/- 3.3, 869 LV)
Ohio Obama 46, McCain 50 (Fox News/Rasmussen, 9/21, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Ohio Obama 46, McCain 46 (Insider Advantage, 9/22, +/- 4.1, 545 LV)
Ohio Obama 46, McCain 47 (Rasmussen, 9/23, +/- 4.0, 700 LV)
Oregon Obama 52, McCain 41 (American Research Group, 9/22, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Oregon Obama 52, McCain 41 (Survey USA, 9/23, +/- 3.8, 708 LV)
Oregon Obama 53, McCain 39 (Research 2000/DailyKos, 9/24, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 46, McCain 44 (NBC News/Mason-Dixon, 9/18, +/- 3.9, 625 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 48, McCain 45 (Fox News/Rasmussen, 9/21, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 50, McCain 46 (American Research Group, 9/22, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 43, McCain 41 (National Journal, 9/22, +/- 4.9, 406 RV)
Pennsylvania Obama 47, McCain 46 (Strategic Vision, 9/23, +/- 3.0, 1200 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 51, McCain 43, B1, N3, M0 (CNN/Time, 9/23, +/- 3.5, 730 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 49, McCain 45 (Rasmussen, 9/23, +/- 4.0, 700 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 50, McCain 44 (Survey USA, 9/24, +/- 3.0, 1094 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 47, McCain 43 (The Morning Call, 9/24, +/- 4.5, 577 LV)
South Carolina Obama 39, McCain 58 (Survey USA, 9/22, +/- 3.8, 690 LV)
South Carolina Obama 39, McCain 54 (Research 2000/DailyKos, 9/24, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
South Dakota Obama 39, McCain 55 (American Research Group, 9/20, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Vermont Obama 56, McCain 38 (American Research Group, 9/22, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Virginia Obama 44, McCain 47 (NBC News/Mason-Dixon, 9/19, +/- 4.0, 625 LV)
Virginia Obama 46, McCain 48 (American Research Group, 9/20, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Virginia Obama 51, McCain 45 (Survey USA, 9/21, +/- 3.7, 716 LV)
Virginia Obama 50, McCain 44 (ABC News/Washington Post, 9/21, +/- 3.5, 857 RV)
Virginia Obama 48, McCain 50 (Fox News/Rasmussen, 9/21, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Virginia Obama 50, McCain 45 (Rasmussen, 9/25, +/- 4.0, 700 LV)
Washington Obama 54, McCain 43 (Survey USA, 9/22, +/- 3.8, 682 LV)
West Virginia Obama 44, McCain 49, B0, N5, M1 (CNN/Time, 9/23, +/- 3.5, 694 LV)
West Virginia Obama 42, McCain 50 (Rasmussen, 9/24, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Wisconsin Obama 50, McCain 45 (American Research Group, 9/20, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Wisconsin Obama 49, McCain 42 (Quinnipiac University, 9/21, +/- 2.7, 1313 LV)
Wisconsin Obama 49, McCain 43 (Research 2000, 9/24, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Wyoming Obama 36, McCain 57 (Research 2000/DailyKos, 9/24, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)




10. Probabilities and Potentials

The difference between each candidate’s Potential Electoral Votes Advantage provides a keen insight into how they are doing against each other nationwide. Obama’s potential advantage is 69.7%, while McCain’s potential advantage is 55.8%. The difference in potential advantages is Obama +13.9% (up from +4.3% last week). McCain’s potential advantage fell by 4.8 percentage points this week, while Obama’s potential advantage rose by 4.8 percentage points.

At this point in 2004, Kerry’s potential advantage was 55.2% and Bush’s potential advantage was 73.4%. Kerry trailed Bush by 18.2% in potential advantages four years ago, compared to Obama’s +13.9% lead in potential advantages now.


Highly Probable Electoral Votes:
Obama – 160 … (29.7%)
McCain – 158 … (29.4%)

Probable Electoral Votes:
Obama – 238 … (44.2%)
McCain – 163 … (30.3%)

Potential Electoral Votes, Advantage Obama:
Obama – 375 … (69.7%)
McCain – 163 … (30.3%)

Potential Electoral Votes, Advantage McCain:
Obama – 238 … (44.2%)
McCain – 300 … (55.8%)

Blowout Electoral Votes, Advantage Obama:
Obama – 380 … (70.6%)
McCain – 158 … (29.4%)

Blowout Electoral Votes, Advantage McCain:
Obama – 160 … (29.7%)
McCain – 378 … (70.3%)


“Highly Probable” electoral votes are from states where each candidate is polling at >10% (Strong states only). “Probable” electoral votes are from states where each candidate is polling beyond the margin of error (Strong and Weak states).

“Potential” electoral votes are the same as probable states, but then we add the states polling within the margin of error to give one candidate an advantage. In this scenario, one candidate takes the states where they are polling strong and weak, and also takes all the margin-of-error states.

“Blowout” electoral votes would give one candidate only their strong states (>10%) and the other candidate would win all the other states. An example would be if Obama were to win in all his base states, all the swing states, and all the states where McCain was polling weak.




11. Sources and Links

THE MATH:
Read Last Week’s Edition
Monday’s Daily Widget
Tuesday’s Daily Widget
Wednesday’s Daily Widget
Thursday’s Daily Widget
Friday’s Daily Widget

Sources:
Pollster.com
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
Rasmussen Markets
RCP Average
RCP Latest Polls
Electionprojection.com
3 Blue Dudes


As always, I’m open to your feedback and suggestions, and I will be happy to explain anything! Feel free to use these charts and graphs anywhere on Democratic Underground.

Donate to the Obama Campaign today through DU’s donation link at Barack Obama’s website:
http://my.barackobama.com/page/outreach/view/main/du

.

[DCBob]

1. Those trends look awesome! Also, great to see blue VA and NC!

Thanks!

[phrigndumass]

2. I'm pinching myself, is this real? :)

Let's hope we can maintain this (or make it better!) for the next 37 days.

:donut: Good morning, DCBob! :hi:

[Time for change]

3. Very interesting and brilliantly presented informatioin

I have some observations that you might want to comment on:

You have Obama doing very well in the EC, but barely winning in the popular vote. That would be unusual for final election results to show such a large victory in the EC, with an almost even popular vote. I guess that's because you have McCain gaining so much strength in his strong areas, while losing everywhere else.

Also, it is interesting that you have relatively optimistic projections for Obama in the EC, and at the same time very pessimistic projections in the popular vote -- compared to RCP, for example. I guess that's because your popular vote projections are based on a compilation of state polls, whereas the others are based on national polls? Wouldn't popular vote projections based on national polls be likely to be more accurate, since they are more recent?

Lastly, I have noted for some time that if Obama loses those states that he has some of the smallest winning margins in (VA, NC, and NH) but hangs on to everything else (The states that Gore carried, plus IA, NM, and CO), we will have an electoral tie. There are also several other realistic scenarios for an electoral tie, but that is the most probable. Yet I've heard very little talk about the possibility of an electoral tie, and none on DU. If we have one, Obama would be favored, but the situation could get very ugly, as it did in Florida 2000. Obama should win, since he has an advantage in most states in the U.S. House (which will break the tie). Yet, some of those advantages are very slim and in jeopardy, and he has a mere one vote advantage in several red states. I can easily imagine red states where he has a one vote advantage in the house being pressured by unknowable sources to vote for McCain.

[phrigndumass]

4. Thanks, T4C

You're right, my popular vote count comes from the state polls. There's still some catching up to do in the state polls, as 14 states weren't even polled this week. Texas should be closer than it is shown in this post, and that state alone could easily add a million more votes for Obama. Texas hasn't been polled in about 10 days. My electoral vote calculator is already seeing states such as Nevada and Florida as blue, even though the latest state polls are averaging them as slightly red.

You are also right about the possibility of a tie. Have a look at the graph below (it's a day old, so it doesn't quite match this OP), and notice that a 2.2 point shift in Obama's favor would create a landslide victory for Obama (375 to 163). However, a 2.4 point shift in McCain's favor would make it a tie. All that McCain would need to win is Minnesota (259 to 279). Since 37 days is a lifetime in politics, this election really could go either way.

:donut: Good morning! :hi:





.
(on edit: corrected the EV outcome if Minnesota goes to McCain)

[rg302200]

5. I can't believe Ohio is still pulling for McLame

We are working out butts off here and have had some pretty good results!

If we can flip it blue along with Virginia, N.C., Nevada, N.W. Iowa and Col. my election night celebration will be one of drunken bliss!

[phrigndumass]

8. Stock up on spirits now, before the economy tanks :)

I'm hoping Ohio crosses over as well, but even if it doesn't, I have a growing feeling that we will win :D

:donut: Good morning, rg! :hi:

[fight4my3sons]

6. Good morning, phrigndumass!

lmd is very excited reading these charts this morning on this especially rainy and dreary day. Thanks!

:hi: :bounce:

[phrigndumass]

7. Look out for Kyle! :)

All the plants will get a drink of water today. Maybe too much?

Hi to Lil Math Dude! :bounce:

:donut: And good morning to you :hi: :hi:

[fight4my3sons]

9. It's been raining since yesterday.

We are supposed to get the worst of it today. We have flooding advisories along the coast. Basement is wet, but we are ok so far. :)

[phrigndumass]

10. Good that you're okay so far :)

I wonder if it's possible for your neighbor to get flooded out, but your place stays nice and dry? Problem solved, by a swirler named Kyle :D

[tekisui]

11. Florida is next!

FL will be showing blue in the coming weeks, joining VA and NC, and it will be beautiful.

Great graphs this week! Best yet, as each day is gaining importance, now.

Thanks, phrign! :kick: :kick: :kick:

[phrigndumass]

13. Fingers crossed :)

:donut: Good morning, tek! :hi:

[grantcart]

12. Your mission should you decide to accept it is to bring IN OH NV FL next week

Don't work too hard

[phrigndumass]

14. Good thing I have my shoe phone :)

I'll call Foxmussen right now and have it delivered, lol

[grantcart]

15. thats your best snark yet lol

[phrigndumass]

16. I'm learning from the master

(that would be you)

[ObamaMagnets]

17. Keep Your Head Down, Keep Working

Don't feel good about today, 11/5 is the day to celebrate.

[phrigndumass]

20. Agreed

37 days is a lifetime in politics

Welcome to DU! :hi:

[jonasmkl]

18. What a treasure chest of tables and diagrams

And encouraging, too.

Big K&R :thumbsup: :kick:

[phrigndumass]

21. Thanks, jonasmkl

Welcome to DU! :hi:

[jonasmkl]

23. You're very welcome

Actually I've been hanging around on DU for quite some time.
It's just that I do not get around to post in most cases.

:hi: back at you, and thanks for the welcome!

[OakCliffDem]

19. I wish the election could be held today

[phrigndumass]

22. Early voting is taking place as we type

:hi:

[OakCliffDem]

24. It is obvious Obama is going to win

Why can't we just hold the election today, and skip the pain of listening to McCain talk about being a war hero while he was a prisoner.

I know, I know, the Constitution lays out how elections are to be conducted. I am not advocating the United States become a dictatorship.