THE MATH Weekly – For the Week Ending Sunday, Nov 2 – Obama 364, McCain 174

[phrigndumass]

THE MATH Weekly – For the Week Ending Sunday, November 2, 2008


Contents:
1. Current Stats
2. Electoral Votes
3. Strength of Electoral Votes
4. Electoral Votes Comparison to 2004
5. Popular Vote
6. National Polls
7. Obama’s Seventeen
8. Trading and the Wigand Electoral Average
9. This Week’s State Polls (Detail)
10. Probabilities and Potentials
11. Sources and Links







1. Current Stats

With only two days remaining until the election, John McCain is seeing a slight bump in the national polls yet not enough to make any significant difference. Barack Obama has shored up enough strong support to safely win 243 electoral votes on Election Day, and this past week has seen his campaign finding new battlegrounds in normally solid red states such as Arizona, Georgia, Montana and the Dakotas.

States moving to the left this week are: Arizona (10), Arkansas (6), Nevada (5), New Hampshire (4) and South Carolina (8). States moving to the right this week are: Indiana (11), Missouri (11), North Dakota (3) and Pennsylvania (21). Indiana, Missouri and North Dakota all switched sides this week, from blue to red.


Election Day: Tuesday, November 4, 2008


Number of Days Until the Election: 2 days


Current Projected Electoral Votes:
Obama – 364
McCain – 174
Needed to Win – 270


Current Projected Popular Vote:
Obama – 71,100,899 … (50.6%) … (+9,986,529)
McCain – 61,114,370 … (43.5%)
Barr (maximum) – 3,557,244 … (2.5%)
Nader (maximum) – 3,146,189 … (2.2%)
McKinney (maximum) – 281,296 … (0.2%)
Undecided/Other – 1,729,361 … (1.2%)


Swing States Leaning:
Obama – 66.63%
McCain – 33.38%


Projected Popular Vote if Undecideds Break the Same as Swing States:
Obama – 72,011,808 … (51.2%) … (+11,237,354)
McCain – 61,885,147 … (44.0%)
All Others – 6,751,107 … (4.8%)


Probability of Obama Win – 100.0% (if the election were held today)


Strength of Projection – 86.9%



^ FIGURE 1a. This is what we refer to as the “Widget”. In the white section, it shows Obama’s and McCain’s electoral vote projection from three different sources. 270 would be a majority. In the yellow section, it shows three sources of trading and averages for the candidates. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority. Intrade shows the trading, while RCP-av shows the aggregate average of all the state polls. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states.



^ FIGURE 1b. This chart shows the seats projected to be picked up by Democrats in November in Congress. The projection is from Electionprojection.com.




2. Electoral Votes (270 needed to win)

Obama is currently winning 57.8% of the electoral votes outside of the margin of error, compared to McCain’s 24.5%. The number of electoral votes within the margin of error rises to 95 this week. Once we consider Obama’s lead in the swing states (66.6%-33.4%) and add how well he is doing in the states within the margin of error (momentum), his electoral vote projection arrives at 364, down from 385 last week.



^ FIGURE 2a. This chart shows the projected electoral votes for each candidate outside of the margin of error (+/- 4.0%). A pie chart is used to illustrate the percentage of the total 538 electoral votes up for grabs this year.



^ FIGURE 2b. This graph shows the daily tracking of Obama’s projected electoral votes from three sources. 270 is a majority of the electoral votes. The blue line shows daily tracking from 538.com, which projects what the outcome should be on election day. The red line shows daily tracking from Electoral-Vote.com, which shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break evenly. The green line is my own projection, and it shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break the same way as the swing states. A trend line is used (dashed green line) to show the average progress since May 19 and the possible route for the next seven days.







3. Strength of Electoral Votes

The electoral votes from states within the margin of error rose from 79 electoral votes last week to 95 electoral votes this week. Arizona (10) and Indiana (11) moved into the margin of error this week, while Nevada (5) moved out.



^ FIGURE 3a. This chart shows the strength of the projected electoral votes for each candidate outside of the margin of error (+/- 4.0%). A pie chart is used to illustrate the overall percentage of the electoral votes in each category. “Strong” means winning electoral votes from a state by a greater than 10% margin. “Weak” means winning electoral votes from a state by a margin of 5% to 9%. Any margin less than 5% is considered within the margin of error.



^ FIGURE 3b. This graph shows the weekly tracking of the five categories of strength for the electoral votes. The dark blue line is the weekly tracking for electoral votes within the Strong Obama category (Obama leading by 10% or greater). The light blue line is the weekly tracking for electoral votes within the Weak Obama category (Obama leading between 5% and 9%). The yellow line is the weekly tracking for electoral votes within the margin of error (either candidate leading by 4% or less). The pink line is the weekly tracking for electoral votes within the Weak McCain category (McCain leading between 5% and 9%). The red line is the weekly tracking for electoral votes within the Strong McCain category (McCain leading by 10% or greater).



^ FIGURE 3c. This chart shows the strength of the projected electoral votes for each candidate sorted into each category. “Strong” means winning electoral votes from a state by a greater than 10% margin. “Weak” means winning electoral votes from a state by a margin of 5% to 9%. Any margin less than 5% is considered within the margin of error and is referred to as “Lean.”




4. Electoral Votes Comparison to 2004

At this point in 2004, John Kerry was barely leading George W. Bush 262 electoral votes to 261 electoral votes, with 15 tied. Comparing Obama’s projection to Kerry’s in 2004, we see that Obama has 97 more Strong electoral votes now than Kerry had at this point then. And Obama has 11 fewer Weak electoral votes than Kerry had then. There are also 13 fewer electoral votes within the margin of error than there were at this point in 2004. Bush was stronger in 2004 than McCain is now, as Bush had 47 more Strong electoral votes and 26 more Weak electoral votes then.



^ FIGURE 4a. Electoral-Vote.com is a valuable source for electoral vote tracking. This graph shows the electoral progress of the 2004 election between John Kerry and George Bush, along with descriptions of factors that seems to have changed the course of the race. I include on the left side a snapshot of the electoral vote projection for each candidate on this date back in 2004.



^ FIGURE 4b. This chart shows the strength of the projected electoral votes for each candidate outside of the margin of error (+/- 4.0%) on this date in 2004 (Kerry vs. Bush). A pie chart is used to illustrate the overall percentage of the electoral votes in each category. “Strong” means winning electoral votes from a state by a greater than 10% margin. “Weak means winning electoral votes from a state by a margin of 5% to 9%. Any margin less than 5% is considered within the margin of error.



^ FIGURE 4c. This graph shows Obama’s green line and red line from the previous graph, and compares it to John Kerry’s 2004 progress (orange line) as shown from Electoral-Vote.com. (Both the red line and the orange line show data from Electoral-Vote.com.) Trend lines are used to plot a possible route for these projections for the near future.




5. Popular Vote

Obama is currently projected to win 50.6% of the popular vote, and he is leading McCain by 7.1%. Barr is taking a maximum of 2.5% of the vote, while Nader is polling at a maximum of 2.2% and McKinney is polling at a maximum of 0.2%. The percentage of Undecideds falls this week to 1.2%. Factoring in the swing states to get an idea how the Undecideds will vote, Obama’s projected popular vote margin increases to 7.2%.



^ FIGURE 5a. This chart shows the percentage of the projected popular vote for each candidate with a percentage still undecided. A pie chart is used to illustrate the percentage of the projected 126 million votes up for grabs this year.



^ FIGURE 5b. I am projecting 136 million votes on election day, which is the total 2004 votes plus population growth and new voter registration totals for each state. A total projected popular vote is calculated for each candidate based on projected votes on election day this year multiplied by each state’s current poll results. This graph shows the daily tracking of the popular vote calculations in millions as well as the percentages. The scale is between 0 and 136 (in millions), and a majority of votes (half) would be 68 million votes.



^ FIGURE 5c. I am projecting 126 million votes on election day, which is the total 2004 votes plus population growth for each state. A total projected popular vote is calculated for each candidate based on projected votes on election day this year multiplied by each state’s current poll results. This graph shows the weekly tracking of the total popular vote percentages, and compares them to the final percentages received by past Democratic candidates. The scale is 0 to 100%, with a majority being 50%.



^ FIGURE 5d. This graph from FiveThirtyEight.com shows a correlation between a candidate’s lead in the popular vote and that candidate’s probability of winning the electoral vote and the election, if the election were held today.




6. National Polls

The national daily tracking polls are a good indicator of the projected popular vote, and there is a correlation between the lead in popular vote and the probability of winning the electoral vote. A three-point lead in a national poll would correlate to a 97% probability of winning the electoral vote, according to FiveThirtyEight.com.

The national polls have shown some tightening over the past week, but this has not crossed over into the state polls for the most part. The popular vote totals from the state polls have continued to widen for Obama as the national polls have fluctuated and narrowed.

Gallup’s daily tracking average for Obama jumps one percentage point to 52% this week, while Rasmussen’s daily tracking average for Obama falls one percentage point to 51%. Meanwhile, DailyKos & Research 2000’s daily tracking average for Obama decreases one percentage point to 51% and the Diageo/Hotline daily tracking average for Obama moves up one percentage point to 51%. The Real Clear Politics Average this week is 50.4% for Obama, which is the same as last week. Obama is now leading McCain in Gallup by 10%, leading by 5% in Rasmussen, leading by 7% in Research 2000, leading by 7% in Hotline and leading by 6.8% in RCP.

The Daily Trackers showed Obama leading by 8.4% last week as a whole, but his lead falls on average to 7.2% in the Daily Trackers this week. That’s a 1.2% fall in one week. In the Big 12 National Monthly Polls, Obama’s lead shrank from 9.0% last week to 8.3% this week on average. Looking at all national polling together, Obama went from leading by 8.8% overall last week to leading by 7.9% overall this week, a drop of 0.9%.



^ FIGURE 6a. This chart compares each polling agency’s latest polls with their averages for each candidate this year. The top section of the chart compares the Daily Tracking polls and my own projected popular vote for each candidate. The bottom section of the chart compares the National Tracking polls (usually released monthly). Each section is totaled and averaged, and an overall average is shown at the very bottom of the chart. The latest polls released for each polling agency are displayed in the center columns for each candidate, as well as Obama’s current lead in those polls (a negative number denotes Obama trailing McCain in that poll). The columns on the right show each polling agency’s averaged results since May 1.



^ FIGURE 6b. Obama’s cumulative lead in the national daily tracking polls is illustrated in this graph. Showing it this way helps us see the Obama Campaign’s momentum shifts much easier over time.



^ FIGURE 6c. The national daily tracking polls are indicators of the potential popular vote lead for a candidate. This graph compares the trend lines of Obama’s lead in the national daily tracking polls and averages with my projected trend line of Obama’s lead in the popular vote. The red line shows Obama’s trend lead over McCain from Gallup Daily Tracking polls. The purple line shows Obama’s trend lead over McCain from Rasmussen Daily Tracking polls (with leaners). The blue line shows Obama’s trend lead over McCain from Real Clear Politics’ aggregate state poll average. The dark green line shows Obama’s trend lead over McCain from my daily projection of each candidate’s popular vote, based on state polls and projected votes on election day in each state. The light green line shows my actual daily tracking of Obama’s popular vote lead over McCain. Taking all these daily tracking items together, we can see a true range of Obama’s lead over McCain over time and a possible trend for the future of this race.




7. Obama’s Seventeen

Overall trading for the 17 states that the Obama Campaign is targeting this year was down 35.50 points to 1181.10 this week, a fall of 2.1%. This is above the majority mark of 850.00. The states with the most significant changes this week are Indiana, Missouri, Montana, New Hampshire, North Dakota, Ohio and Virginia.

Figure 7c below shows how all 17 states are polling together as a group over time. Barack Obama’s trend line is right at 50% in that graph, while John McCain’s trend line is ticking up to 45%.



^ FIGURE 7a. The “Obama Seventeen” is the group of 17 states where the Obama campaign is concentrating much of its efforts this year. This widget shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the seventeen swing states are listed below the indicator’s current percentage of the total 1700 possible. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority. The number of electoral votes for each state is shown in the left margin, and the most recent polling for each state is shown in the far right column.



^ FIGURE 7b. This graph shows the daily tracking of “Obama’s Seventeen” swing states total from the Obama’s Seventeen widget above. To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1700.



^ FIGURE 7c. This graph plots all of the state polling results for Obama’s Seventeen swing states, and displays a trend line to illustrate each candidate’s progress in these states as a group.




8. Trading and the Wigand Electoral Average

Obama’s Intrade shares closed at 86.1, down from 86.6 last week. His shares on Rasmussen Markets fell from 87.4 to 87.1 this week. Our Wigand Electoral Average moved down from 64.31 to 61.71 this week for Obama, as Indiana, Missouri and North Dakota moved out of Obama territory.

Overall trading for our 12 swing states in the Wigand Electoral Average falls 27.00 this week to 791.70 for Obama, well above the majority mark of 600.00. The only states gaining ground this week are Colorado, New Mexico, Ohio, South Carolina and Wisconsin. Obama is leading McCain overall in our 12 swing states by a margin of 66.6% to 33.4%. This is down 1.1 percentage points from last week for Obama.



^ FIGURE 8a. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the twelve swing states are listed below the indicator’s current score. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority.



^ FIGURE 8b. This graph shows the daily tracking of the swing states total from the Wigand Electoral Average widget above (second chart from the top). The scale is 0 to 1200, with 600 being a majority. To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1200.



^ FIGURE 8c. Wigand vs. Trading and Real Clear Politics Average. The Wigand Electoral Average uses both poll averages and trading (swing states), and this graph compares it to the national daily tracking average from Real Clear Politics, as well as the closing trading figures from Intrade (people buying shares with real money) and Rasmussen Markets (people using fake money).



^ FIGURE 8d. This graph shows the daily tracking of each swing state’s closing figure on Intrade. The scale is 0 to 100 with 50 being a majority. I commonly refer to the range from 40.00 to 60.00 as “The Zone” because the states in The Zone are true swing states this year.




9. This Week’s State Polls (Detail)


Scale:
Strong Obama (10% or greater)
Weak Obama (5% to 9%)
Lean Obama (0% to 4%)
Lean McCain (0% to 4%)
Weak McCain (5% to 9%)
Strong McCain (10% or greater)



^ Probability of winning a state, found by cross-referencing a
candidate’s percentage lead with the poll’s margin of error.


Alabama Obama 36, McCain 61 (Survey USA, 10/28, +/- 3.9, 650 LV)
Alaska Obama 41, McCain 57 (Rasmussen, 10/28, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Alaska Obama 39, McCain 58 (Research 2000/DailyKos, 10/29, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Arizona Obama 41, McCain 49 (Northern AZ Univ, 10/22, +/- 4.0, 600 RV)
Arizona Obama 41.5, McCain 43.5 (Zimmerman & Associates, 10/24, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Arizona Obama 46, McCain 51 (Rasmussen, 10/26, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Arizona Obama 44, McCain 46 (AZ State University, 10/26, +/- 3.0, 1029 RV)
Arizona Obama 46, McCain 53 (CNN/Time, 10/26, +/- 3.5, 807 LV)
Arizona Obama 44, McCain 48 (NBC/Mason-Dixon, 10/28, +/- 4.0, 625 LV)
Arizona Obama 46, McCain 50 (American Research Group, 10/29, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Arizona Obama 47, McCain 48 (Research 2000/DailyKos, 10/30, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Arkansas Obama 44, McCain 54 (Rasmussen, 10/27, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Arkansas Obama 44, McCain 51 (American Research Group, 10/30, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
California Obama 55, McCain 33 (Field Poll, 10/23, +/- 3.3, 966 LV)
California Obama 61, McCain 34 (Rasmussen, 10/25, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
California Obama 60, McCain 36 (Survey USA, 10/30, +/- 4.0, 637 LV)
Colorado Obama 50, McCain 41, Barr 1 (AP-GfK Battleground, 10/24, +/- 3.9, 626 LV)
Colorado Obama 48, McCain 44 (National Journal, 10/25, +/- 4.9, 409 RV)
Colorado Obama 50, McCain 46 (Fox News/Rasmussen, 10/26, +/- 3.0, 1000 LV)
Colorado Obama 53, McCain 45 (Insider Advantage, 10/26, +/- 3.8, 636 LV)
Colorado Obama 53, McCain 45 (CNN/Time, 10/26, +/- 3.5, 774 LV)
Colorado Obama 51, McCain 45 (Marist College, 10/27, +/- 4.0, 682 LV)
Colorado Obama 52, McCain 45 (American Research Group, 10/29, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Colorado Obama 54, McCain 44 (Public Policy Polling, 10/29, +/- 2.2, 2023 LV)
Connecticut Obama 56, McCain 31 (Univ Connecticut, 10/20, +/- 4.5, 502 LV)
Delaware Obama 63, McCain 33 (Survey USA, 10/28, +/- 3.8, 657 LV)
Florida Obama 45, McCain 43, B1, N1 (AP-GfK Battleground, 10/24, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Florida Obama 49, McCain 44 (Suffolk University, 10/25, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Florida Obama 45, McCain 44 (National Journal, 10/25, +/- 4.9, 408 RV)
Florida Obama 47.2, McCain 46.9 (Reuters/Zogby, 10/26, +/- 4.1, 600 LV)
Florida Obama 51, McCain 47 (Fox News/Rasmussen, 10/26, +/- 3.0, 1000 LV)
Florida Obama 49.2, McCain 44.4 (Datamar, 10/26, +/- 3.8, 630 LV)
Florida Obama 47, McCain 45 (Quinnipiac University, 10/26, +/- 2.6, 1435 LV)
Florida Obama 51, McCain 47 (CNN/Time, 10/26, +/- 3.5, 747 LV)
Florida Obama 50, McCain 43 (LA Times/Bloomberg, 10/27, +/- 4.0, 639 LV)
Florida Obama 47, McCain 47 (Datamar, 10/30, +/- 3.1, 995 RV)
Florida Obama 50, McCain 46 (American Research Group, 10/30, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Florida Obama 49, McCain 47 (NBC/Mason-Dixon, 10/30, +/- 4.0, 625 LV)
Georgia Obama 43, McCain 49 (NBC/Mason-Dixon, 10/23, +/- 4.0, 625 LV)
Georgia Obama 47, McCain 52 (CNN/Time, 10/26, +/- 3.5, 690 LV)
Georgia Obama 47, McCain 48 (Insider Advantage, 10/27, +/- 3.8, 637 LV)
Georgia Obama 44, McCain 47 (Research 2000/DailyKos, 10/29, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Georgia Obama 47, McCain 52 (Rasmussen, 10/30, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Idaho Obama 32, McCain 55 (Harstad Research, 10/21, +/- 4.5, 503 LV)
Indiana Obama 45, McCain 47 (Howey-Gauge, 10/24, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Indiana Obama 46, McCain 45 (Research 2000, 10/24, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Indiana Obama 44.0, McCain 50.2 (Reuters/Zogby, 10/26, +/- 4.1, 600 LV)
Indiana Obama 47, McCain 47 (WISH-TV, 10/26, +/- 5.0, 400 LV)
Indiana Obama 47, McCain 47 (Research 2000, 10/26, +/- 3.5, 800 LV)
Indiana Obama 46, McCain 45 (Selzer & Co., 10/28, +/- 4.0, 606 LV)
Indiana Obama 46, McCain 49 (Rasmussen, 10/29, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Indiana Obama 47, McCain 47, Barr 2 (Downs Center/SUSA, 10/29, +/- 3.5, 900 LV)
Indiana Obama 48, McCain 48 (American Research Group, 10/30, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Iowa Obama 54, McCain 39 (Research 2000, 10/22, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Iowa Obama 51, McCain 40 (NBC/Mason-Dixon, 10/23, +/- 4.0, 625 LV)
Iowa Obama 52, McCain 42 (Marist College, 10/23, +/- 4.0, 645 LV)
Iowa Obama 53, McCain 39 (Research 2000, 10/28, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Iowa Obama 55, McCain 40 (Survey USA, 10/29, +/- 3.9, 658 LV)
Kansas Obama 37, McCain 58 (Survey USA, 10/28, +/- 3.9, 626 LV)
Kentucky Obama 42, McCain 51 (Mason-Dixon, 10/28, +/- 3.5, 817 LV)
Kentucky Obama 39, McCain 56 (Research 2000/DailyKos, 10/28, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Kentucky Obama 43, McCain 55 (Rasmussen, 10/29, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Louisiana Obama 38.3, McCain 50.6 (Southeast LA Univ, 10/22, +/- 4.5, 503 LV)
Louisiana Obama 40, McCain 43 (Loyola University, 10/25, +/- 4.8, 475 LV)
Maine Obama 54, McCain 33 (Market Decisions, 10/20, +/- 5.0, 425 LV)
Massachusetts Obama 56, McCain 39 (Survey USA, 10/28, +/- 3.9, 658 LV)
Michigan Obama 50, McCain 38 (EPIC-MRA, 10/27, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Michigan Obama 53, McCain 43 (Rasmussen, 10/28, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Michigan Obama 54, McCain 41 (Strategic Vision, 10/28, +/- 3.0, 1200 LV)
Michigan Obama 55, McCain 42 (Public Policy Polling, 10/29, +/- 2.5, 1532 LV)
Minnesota Obama 42, McCain 37 (St. Cloud State Univ, 10/18, +/- 4.6, 509 RV)
Minnesota Obama 56, McCain 37 (MN Public Radio, 10/26, +/- 4.6, 451 LV)
Minnesota Obama 55, McCain 43 (Rasmussen, 10/28, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Minnesota Obama 48, McCain 40 (NBC/Mason-Dixon, 10/28, +/- 4.0, 625 LV)
Minnesota Obama 53, McCain 38 (Research 2000/DailyKos, 10/28, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Minnesota Obama 57, McCain 41 (Public Policy Polling, 10/29, +/- 3.0, 1050 LV)
Mississippi Obama 33, McCain 46 (Univ South Alabama, 10/18, +/- 5.0, 403 LV)
Mississippi Obama 45, McCain 53 (Rasmussen, 10/27, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Mississippi Obama 40, McCain 53 (Research 2000/DailyKos, 10/29, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Missouri Obama 45, McCain 46 (NBC/Mason-Dixon, 10/23, +/- 4.0, 625 LV)
Missouri Obama 48.2, McCain 45.7 (Reuters/Zogby, 10/26, +/- 4.1, 600 LV)
Missouri Obama 48, McCain 48 (Survey USA, 10/26, +/- 3.9, 672 LV)
Missouri Obama 48, McCain 47 (Fox News/Rasmussen, 10/26, +/- 3.0, 1000 LV)
Missouri Obama 48, McCain 50 (CNN/Time, 10/26, +/- 3.5, 825 LV)
Missouri Obama 47, McCain 50 (Insider Advantage, 10/29, +/- 3.4, 814 LV)
Missouri Obama 48, McCain 48 (American Research Group, 10/29, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Montana Obama 44, McCain 48 (NBC/Mason-Dixon, 10/25, +/- 4.0, 625 LV)
Montana Obama 46, McCain 50 (Rasmussen, 10/29, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Montana Obama 44, McCain 48 (Research 2000/DailyKos, 10/29, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Montana Obama 46, McCain 49 (American Research Group, 10/29, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Nevada Obama 52, McCain 40, B1, N1 (AP-GfK Battleground, 10/24, +/- 3.9, 628 LV)
Nevada Obama 48.2, McCain 44.0 (Reuters/Zogby, 10/26, +/- 4.1, 600 LV)
Nevada Obama 52, McCain 45 (CNN/Time, 10/26, +/- 4.0, 684 LV)
Nevada Obama 50, McCain 40 (Suffolk University, 10/27, +/- 4.9, 450 LV)
Nevada Obama 50, McCain 46 (Rasmussen, 10/27, +/- 4.0, 700 LV)
Nevada Obama 50, McCain 45 (Research 2000, 10/27, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
New Hampshire Obama 54, McCain 39 (Boston Globe/UNH, 10/22, +/- 3.5, 725 LV)
New Hampshire Obama 50, McCain 45 (Marist College, 10/23, +/- 4.0, 655 LV)
New Hampshire Obama 55, McCain 37, Nader 1 (AP-GfK Battleground, 10/24, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
New Hampshire Obama 50, McCain 39 (NBC/Mason-Dixon, 10/25, +/- 4.0, 625 LV)
New Hampshire Obama 55, McCain 39 (University of NH, 10/25, +/- 3.8, 692 LV)
New Hampshire Obama 58, McCain 34 (University of NH, 10/28, +/- 3.8, 661 LV)
New Hampshire Obama 50, McCain 41 (Strategic Vision, 10/28, +/- 3.5, 800 LV)
New Hampshire Obama 53, McCain 40, B1, N1 (Suffolk University, 10/29, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
New Hampshire Obama 51, McCain 44 (Research 2000, 10/29, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
New Hampshire Obama 56, McCain 41 (American Research Group, 10/29, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
New Hampshire Obama 53, McCain 39 (University of NH, 10/29, +/- 3.9, 617 LV)
New Hampshire Obama 51, McCain 44 (Rasmussen, 10/30, +/- 4.0, 700 LV)
New Hampshire Obama 53, McCain 42 (Survey USA, 10/30, +/- 3.6, 682 LV)
New Hampshire Obama 52, McCain 41 (University of NH, 10/30, +/- 4.2, 549 LV)
New Jersey Obama 53, McCain 38 (Strategic Vision, 10/26, +/- 3.0, 800 LV)
New Jersey Obama 53, McCain 35 (Farleigh Dickinson U, 10/26, +/- 3.5, 852 LV)
New Jersey Obama 54, McCain 38 (Research 2000, 10/28, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
New Jersey Obama 52, McCain 42 (Survey USA, 10/30, +/- 4.0, 632 LV)
New Jersey Obama 55, McCain 34 (Monmouth University, 10/30, +/- 3.5, 801 LV)
New Mexico Obama 54, McCain 44 (Rasmussen, 10/28, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
New Mexico Obama 58, McCain 41 (Public Policy Polling, 10/29, +/- 2.5, 1537 LV)
New Mexico Obama 52, McCain 45 (Survey USA, 10/30, +/- 3.9, 664 LV)
New York Obama 62, McCain 31 (Siena College, 10/20, +/- 3.7, 721 LV)
New York Obama 62, McCain 33 (Survey USA, 10/28, +/- 3.8, 633 LV)
North Carolina Obama 47, McCain 47, Barr 1 (Mason-Dixon, 10/23, +/- 3.5, 800 LV)
North Carolina Obama 48, McCain 46, Barr 0 (AP-GfK Battleground, 10/24, +/- 4.0, 601 LV)
North Carolina Obama 47, McCain 43 (National Journal, 10/25, +/- 4.9, 402 RV)
North Carolina Obama 49.7, McCain 46.4 (Reuters/Zogby, 10/26, +/- 4.1, 600 LV)
North Carolina Obama 48, McCain 49 (Fox News/Rasmussen, 10/26, +/- 3.0, 1000 LV)
North Carolina Obama 49, McCain 48, Barr 1 (Public Policy Polling, 10/26, +/- 2.8, 1038 LV)
North Carolina Obama 52, McCain 46 (CNN/Time, 10/26, +/- 4.0, 667 LV)
North Carolina Obama 47, McCain 46, Barr 3 (Civitas Institute, 10/28, +/- 4.2, 598 LV)
North Carolina Obama 50, McCain 48 (Rasmussen, 10/29, +/- 4.0, 700 LV)
North Carolina Obama 48, McCain 48 (Insider Advantage, 10/29, +/- 3.7, 641 LV)
North Carolina Obama 47, McCain 45 (Research 2000/DailyKos, 10/29, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
North Carolina Obama 45, McCain 38 (Elon University, 10/29, +/- 3.5, 797 LV)
North Dakota Obama 46, McCain 47 (Research 2000/DailyKos, 10/29, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Ohio Obama 57, McCain 41 (Ohio University, 10/18, +/- 4.0, 611 LV)
Ohio Obama 48, McCain 41 (AP-GfK Battleground, 10/24, +/- 4.0, 607 LV)
Ohio Obama 48, McCain 41 (National Journal, 10/25, +/- 4.9, 404 RV)
Ohio Obama 49.7, McCain 45.1 (Reuters/Zogby, 10/26, +/- 4.1, 600 LV)
Ohio Obama 49, McCain 45 (Fox News/Rasmussen, 10/26, +/- 3.0, 1000 LV)
Ohio Obama 48, McCain 45 (Marist College, 10/26, +/- 4.0, 661 LV)
Ohio Obama 51, McCain 42 (Quinnipiac University, 10/26, +/- 2.6, 1425 LV)
Ohio Obama 51, McCain 47 (CNN/Time, 10/26, +/- 3.5, 779 LV)
Ohio Obama 49, McCain 45 (Survey USA, 10/27, +/- 3.9, 648 LV)
Ohio Obama 49, McCain 40 (LA Times/Bloomberg, 10/27, +/- 4.0, 644 LV)
Oklahoma Obama 34.8, McCain 61.6 (TvPoll.com, 10/25, +/- 3.5, 720 LV)
Oklahoma Obama 34, McCain 63 (Survey USA, 10/29, +/- 4.0, 594 LV)
Oregon Obama 53, McCain 34 (Portland Tribune, 10/24, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Oregon Obama 57, McCain 38 (Survey USA, 10/26, +/- 3.8, 672 LV)
Oregon Obama 55, McCain 39 (Research 2000/DailyKos, 10/28, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Oregon Obama 57, McCain 42 (Public Policy Polling, 10/29, +/- 2.6, 1424 LV)
Oregon Obama 57, McCain 38 (Survey USA, 10/30, +/- 3.7, 700 LV)
Oregon Obama 54, McCain 42 (Rasmussen, 10/30, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 52, McCain 43 (Temple University, 10/23, +/- 3.6, 761 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 52, McCain 40, B1, N1 (AP-GfK Battleground, 10/24, +/- 4.0, 607 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 53, McCain 40 (Franklin & Marshall, 10/24, +/- 4.2, 560 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 53, McCain 41 (Muhlenberg College, 10/25, +/- 4.0, 597 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 53, McCain 40 (Morning Call, 10/26, +/- 4.0, 589 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 51, McCain 42 (Insider Advantage, 10/26, +/- 4.0, 588 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 53, McCain 41 (Quinnipiac University, 10/26, +/- 2.7, 1364 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 55, McCain 41 (Marist College, 10/26, +/- 4.0, 713 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 55, McCain 43 (CNN/Time, 10/26, +/- 3.5, 768 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 53, McCain 46 (Rasmussen, 10/27, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 53, McCain 41 (Muhlenberg College, 10/27, +/- 4.0, 589 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 53, McCain 42 (Morning Call, 10/28, +/- 4.0, 610 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 47, McCain 43 (NBC/Mason-Dixon, 10/28, +/- 4.0, 625 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 49, McCain 44 (Strategic Vision, 10/28, +/- 3.0, 1200 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 54, McCain 41 (Muhlenberg College, 10/29, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 53, McCain 43 (Morning Call, 10/30, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 51, McCain 45 (American Research Group, 10/30, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 51, McCain 47 (Rasmussen, 10/30, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 52, McCain 44 (Muhlenberg College, 10/31, +/- 4.0, 604 LV)
South Carolina Obama 42, McCain 53 (NBC/PSRA, 10/26, +/- 5.0, 400 LV)
South Carolina Obama 44, McCain 52 (Survey USA, 10/29, +/- 3.9, 654 LV)
South Dakota Obama 44, McCain 53 (Rasmussen, 10/30, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Texas Obama 40, McCain 51 (Univ of TX-Austin, 10/19, +/- 4.2, 550 RV)
Utah Obama 32, McCain 55 (Mason-Dixon, 10/24, +/- 4.0, 625 LV)
Utah Obama 32, McCain 57 (Dan Jones & Associates, 10/27, +/- 3.0, 1205 LV)
Vermont Obama 57, McCain 36 (Research 2000, 10/25, +/- 5.0, 400 LV)
Virginia Obama 51, McCain 40 (VA Commonwealth Univ, 10/22, +/- 4.0, 817 LV)
Virginia Obama 48, McCain 39 (Roanoke College, 10/23, +/- 4.0, 614 LV)
Virginia Obama 49, McCain 42, N1, M1 (AP-GfK Battleground, 10/24, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Virginia Obama 52, McCain 44 (Washington Post, 10/25, +/- 3.5, 784 LV)
Virginia Obama 48, McCain 44 (National Journal, 10/25, +/- 4.9, 404 RV)
Virginia Obama 52.0, McCain 44.8 (Reuters/Zogby, 10/26, +/- 4.1, 600 LV)
Virginia Obama 51, McCain 47 (Fox News/Rasmussen, 10/26, +/- 3.0, 1000 LV)
Virginia Obama 52, McCain 43 (Survey USA, 10/26, +/- 3.9, 671 LV)
Virginia Obama 53, McCain 44 (CNN/Time, 10/26, +/- 3.5, 721 LV)
Virginia Obama 51, McCain 47 (Marist College, 10/27, +/- 4.0, 671 LV)
Washington Obama 55, McCain 34 (The Washington Poll, 10/22, +/- 4.0, 600 RV)
Washington Obama 54, McCain 42 (Strategic Vision, 10/26, +/- 3.0, 800 LV)
Washington Obama 56, McCain 39 (Survey USA, 10/27, +/- 4.0, 630 LV)
West Virginia Obama 43, McCain 49 (Research 2000/DailyKos, 10/24, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
West Virginia Obama 40.4, McCain 50.3 (Reuters/Zogby, 10/26, +/- 4.1, 600 LV)
West Virginia Obama 42, McCain 55 (Public Policy Polling, 10/29, +/- 2.1, 2128 LV)
Wisconsin Obama 51, McCain 44 (Rasmussen, 10/23, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Wisconsin Obama 52, McCain 42 (Badger Poll, 10/25, +/- 4.0, 538 LV)
Wisconsin Obama 50, McCain 41 (Strategic Vision, 10/26, +/- 3.0, 800 LV)
Wisconsin Obama 53, McCain 42 (Research 2000, 10/28, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Wisconsin Obama 55, McCain 39 (Survey USA, 10/29, +/- 3.9, 667 LV)
Wyoming Obama 36, McCain 61 (Research 2000/DailyKos, 10/28, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)




10. Probabilities and Potentials

The difference between each candidate’s Potential Electoral Votes Advantage provides a keen insight into how they are doing against each other nationwide. Obama’s potential advantage is 75.5%, while McCain’s potential advantage is 42.2%. The difference in potential advantages is Obama +33.3% (up from +32.5% last week). McCain’s potential advantage rose by 1.1 percentage points this week, while Obama’s potential advantage rose by 1.9 percentage points.

At this point in 2004, Kerry’s potential advantage was 61.9% and Bush’s potential advantage was 58.2%. Kerry led Bush by 3.7% in potential advantages four years ago, compared to Obama’s +33.3% lead in potential advantages now.


Highly Probable Electoral Votes:
Obama – 243 … (45.2%)
McCain – 110 … (20.4%)

Probable Electoral Votes:
Obama – 311 … (57.8%)
McCain – 132 … (24.5%)

Potential Electoral Votes, Advantage Obama:
Obama – 406 … (75.5%)
McCain – 132 … (24.5%)

Potential Electoral Votes, Advantage McCain:
Obama – 311 … (57.8%)
McCain – 227 … (42.2%)

Blowout Electoral Votes, Advantage Obama:
Obama – 428 … (79.6%)
McCain – 110 … (20.4%)

Blowout Electoral Votes, Advantage McCain:
Obama – 243 … (45.2%)
McCain – 295 … (54.8%)


“Highly Probable” electoral votes are from states where each candidate is polling at >10% (Strong states only). “Probable” electoral votes are from states where each candidate is polling beyond the margin of error (Strong and Weak states).

“Potential” electoral votes are the same as probable states, but then we add the states polling within the margin of error to give one candidate an advantage. In this scenario, one candidate takes the states where they are polling strong and weak, and also takes all the margin-of-error states.

“Blowout” electoral votes would give one candidate only their strong states (>10%) and the other candidate would win all the other states. An example would be if Obama were to win in all his base states, all the swing states, and all the states where McCain was polling weak.




11. Sources and Links

THE MATH:
Read Last Week’s Edition
Monday’s Daily Widget
Tuesday’s Daily Widget
Wednesday’s Daily Widget
Thursday’s Daily Widget
Friday’s Daily Widget
Saturday’s Daily Widget
Voter Registration Totals By State
Crosstab Demographic Percentages
Swing States Status Graphs

Sources:
Pollster.com
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
Rasmussen Markets
RCP Average
RCP Latest Polls
Electionprojection.com
3 Blue Dudes


As always, I’m open to your feedback and suggestions, and I will be happy to explain anything! Feel free to use these charts and graphs anywhere on Democratic Underground.

Donate to the Obama Campaign today through DU’s donation link at Barack Obama’s website:
http://my.barackobama.com/page/outreach/view/main/du

[fight4my3sons]

1. Good morning, phrigndumass!

:hi: :bounce:

[phrigndumass]

2. Bounce! Hi to you and the boyz :)

Last Weekly before the election, phew! :D

:donut: Good morning! :hi: :hi: :bounce:

[Demeter]

3. Good Morning, P-Man. 400 EV. And That's My Final Offer!

Come on, America! Vote smart, for once.

[phrigndumass]

7. I'll take 400 EV :)

:donut: Good morning, Demeter! :hi:

[mucifer]

4. come on mccain, you can do it!

:rofl:


Thanks as always for the good news Phrig!

[phrigndumass]

8. He needs a HoverRound to keep up, lol

Probably has one in each of his 7 houses :7

:donut: Good morning, mucifer! :hi:

[a kennedy]

5. Oh my gawd P.......

holy moly lotsa stuff here....love it all and you for posting it. :hug: :headbang: :yourock: and thank you so much. GPG I think the Pack can do it today, first loss for the Titans.

[phrigndumass]

9. If my cat sleeps in on Sunday, the Packers will win :)

Usually, anyway, that's his record lol

He's copping some major ZZZ's at the moment :7

:donut: Good morning, a kennedy! :hi:

[grace0418]

6. Your posts are the only thing keeping me sane at this point, Phrig. I may not

comment every day (you might get uncomfortable if I keep expressing my undying love) ;) but I read your threads religiously everyday. Sometimes I read them again to calm my nerves.

[phrigndumass]

10. I'm happy these posts have a good affect on you :)

They keep me sane as well, lol ... I'd be a basket case full of nerves right about now if I weren't compiling this data!

Thanks for reading all along, grace! :donut: Good morning! :hi:

[CADEMOCRAT7]

11. Good Morning ! Two days to go, and your work is a gift to us all !

Thank you for all of this. When reading this just now I had a "surreal feeling". It is happening...it just felt like "wow, am I really seeing all these numbers for Obama two days before the election, wow".
What percentage of a win is considered historic for a democrat to win by, more than 5 points ?

[phrigndumass]

13. Aw thanks, CAD :)

Say to yourself: President-Elect Barack Obama :D He will win Tuesday!

The historic number to watch for Obama on Tuesday is whether he breaks 50% of the popular vote nationwide. That hasn't been accomplished by a Democrat since 1964 - Lyndon Johnson.

Bill Clinton won by 8 and 9 points in the 1990's, but Ross Perot held down both major candidates' numbers so nobody received 50% of the popular vote.

:donut: Good morning! :hi:

[CADEMOCRAT7]

17. President-Elect Barack Obama !!!

Thank you Mr. P. !!! OK. I know what to look for. This is so exciting !!!! I need to go this morning and buy some organic all purpose flour so I can send you something. Blessings from the Bay with two days to go until this historic moment in time !!!!

[Lochloosa]

12. So, your telling me that Fred Thompson was full of shit this morning on MTP?

:evilgrin:

[phrigndumass]

14. What'd he say? LOL

Was he predicting a McCain landslide? :rofl:

:donut: Good morning, Lochloosa! :hi:

[myrna minx]

15. Good morning! Thanks for my daily fix.

Two more days to go. I can barely contain myself. Have a great Sunday. :loveya:

[phrigndumass]

16. Thanks for my daily fix, too!

:loveya:

:donut: Good morning, myrna! :hi:

[yellerpup]

18. More than a feeling, isn't it?

Looks good! Thanks! :donut: K&R! :dem: :dem: :dem:

[phrigndumass]

19. Yes, it is! It's turning into reality :)

:donut: Good morning, yellerpup! :hi:

[gademocrat7]

20. Good morning, Mr. P

Wow! Looking very good. Thank you. Your complete analysis of this election has been great. Went to visit our recovering pup yesterday at the UGA vet hospital. He has a long way to go but is improving.

[phrigndumass]

22. I was going to ask you about your Frasier dog

So glad he's improving! :D

:donut: Good morning, gd7! :hi:

[grantcart]

21. Thanks for your work on this

My prediction is Obama will be 73 million and McCain will not reach 60. Also the third party votes will evaporate. Its one thing to tell a pollster your vote but in a historical campaign like this people will want to have a piece of it. Also third party people aren't going to wait in long lines to cast a symbolic vote.

[phrigndumass]

23. yw, and thank you for much of the inspiration this year :)

I'll go one better ... 74 million for Obama :D (64 million for the old codger)

Check your PM in a little bit ...

:hi:

[BoneDaddy]

24. Thanks for alot of hard work

Phrig

[phrigndumass]

25. yw, BoneDaddy ... Happy to do it :)

:hi:

[jaybeat]

26. You're Scaring Me, Man!

Take all of the "Strong Obama" in 3a. 243 EVs.

Add Nevada and Pennsylvania for Obama and you get a 269/269 tie.

The SAME scenario that you get if you go to CNNs map (http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/calculator/) and click on "269-269 Tie". (They have other tie scenarios, but only one other seems remotely possible, NV and NH going McCain and CO and NM going Obama.)

This scares me! We KNOW we have stealing machines in Colorado, along with massive Dem disenfranchisement. We KNOW we have a host of theft options in Ohio and Florida. All the other "close" states (Virginia, North Carolina, Indiana, etc.) are "historically" (hysterically?) "Red States" which can be spun as, "Well, Obama didn't REALLY have a chance, it just looked like he did."

And in a tie, the House decides; of course, they'd choose Obama, but he'd be hobbled from Day 1 with his lack of "mandate," with how "exactly half" of the country were "afraid" of him (his being a scary, black, communist Muslim, that is), and the Right Wing Noise Machine would be firing on all thrusters, setting him up for failure.

Worse, all they'd have to do is steal one more state (no matter how tiny), and we're done.

:wow: :cry:

[phrigndumass]

27. :)

Obama will win Tuesday, and by a margin big enough that it's theft-proof. (At least they couldn't get away with it)

I'm here to talk you down! :hi: