Sept 14, 2007-E.J. Dionne predicted this--the suburbs and the Repubs becoming the party of the South

[underpants]

The Republicans are in danger of being pushed into a Southern redoubt. Their increasingly narrow regional and demographic base bears a remarkable resemblance to the old areas of Democratic strength during the Republican heyday after the Civil War.

The GOP controls both Senate seats in 17 states. Nine of these are in the South or border South, and four are in the inner West. (Three of those four states, Idaho, Wyoming and Utah, are about as solidly Republican as any in the country.) There are two states far outside the Republican comfort zone where the party holds both seats, Maine and New Hampshire. And in both of those, an incumbent faces a serious challenge from the Democrats next year.

But trends within the states are as important as national geography. Outside the Deep South, Democrats are on the verge of becoming the dominant party in the suburbs and are pushing into the exurbs. In Virginia, that offensive was central to the Democratic victories of Gov. Tim Kaine in 2005 and Sen. Jim Webb in 2006. But the implications go beyond a single state.

Yet at the very moment when Republicans need unity against Warner, Davis could face an ideological showdown with former governor Jim Gilmore or, possibly, former senator George Allen, who lost narrowly to Webb last year. Both Gilmore and Allen are down-the-line social conservatives. This would give them an advantage in an internal party fight but would limit their general election appeal in the suburbs.

The outcome will determine whether Virginia Republicans define themselves as conservatives oriented toward the Deep South or as middle-state moderate conservatives comfortable with the rise of suburban politics.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/09/13/AR2007091301681.html

[ChairmanAgnostic]

1. remind me. who was the idiot who created the 50 state policy

that was oh, so ever doomed to fail?

Remember the Clintons trying to cut the legs out from Dr. Dean? Remember the DLC pushing its weight around 15-20 months ago? Well, Dean won, and the DLC is a shadow.

[underpants]

2. Even Jon Stewart laughed at Dean and his door hanger idea

My house had about 100 people come through the last four days-knocking on doors and distributing door hangers--I'd guess about 4,000 or so in 5 precincts

Yes the DLC, as you know, had determined that they could fight it out with the Repubs chiefly in fundraising. The end of this strategy was to eek out victories by appealing to soccer moms and in only eeking out wins they could continue to get funds from the big money interests that used to be dominated by the right AND because of this source of their livelihood nothing would change. The status quo would never been threatened and there would be no conclusion no resolution. Professional Wrestling.

When Dean won the DNC chair over Harold Dean that was the beginning of the end. Obama taking down Hillary and then winning a national election (let alone on the scale that he did) does not mean that they will go away. Clearly the DC media liked the idea of an everlasting drama so that is why they tried desperately to put Obama away (regardless of what they say about their own coverage) but if "God DAMN America" can't put a brother down NOTHING will. Dean started the 50 state strategy and Obama & Axelrod applied Chicago street-level block-by-block politics to it.

[ChairmanAgnostic]

3. axelrod was great.

I met Dean in Austin during the netroots convention. Talk about inspirational.

Once the dust settles, I think this campaign will be one for the classroom and text books.