The Emerging Center-Left Majority

[Joanne98]

Conservatives dismiss the notion that this election represents the solidifying of a center-left America. A new poll shows they are wrong.

Robert Borosage and Stanley B. Greenberg | November 13, 2008

The scope of Barack Obama's sweeping victory hasn't yet registered in much of the media. Conservatives and Republicans have responded to defeat with one constant refrain: they can take solace in the fact that America is a "center right" nation. That reality means defeat is only temporary, its causes largely transitory. The losses this time are attributed to Bush's many failures, from Iraq to the economy (the explanation varies from faction to faction).

But election 2008 was not simply a testament to the remarkable candidacy of Barack Obama, nor a product of Bush's catastrophic presidency. Rather, the results suggest that this may not simply be a change election but a sea-change election. An extended election-night survey undertaken by Democracy Corps and the Campaign for America's Future suggests that we may be witness to the emergence of a new progressive majority, that contrary to conservatives' claims, America is now a center-left nation.

The conservative claim to a center-right majority comes from addition. More voters say they are conservative than liberal (by a margin of 34 to 22 in this election). Add conservatives to the 44 percent who say they are moderates and you've got the majority.

But the addition doesn't hold up under any analysis. It assumes that moderates are without definition and more likely to swing right than left. This simply ignores reality. In 2008, self-described moderates, about 44 percent of the electorate, voted 60 to 39 for Obama. And, as has been increasingly true in polling going back to 2004, broad majorities have a world view far closer to liberals and Democrats than to conservatives or Republicans.

In this poll, for example, when asked if homosexuality should be accepted or discouraged by society, moderates and liberals agree that it is a way of life that should be accepted by society by 65- and 33-point margins respectively, compared to conservatives who believe it should be discouraged by 32 points. When asked if our security depends on building strong ties with other nations or on our own military strength, both liberals and moderates agree with multilateralism by double-digit margins, while conservatives disagree. On values and on issues, moderates -- with one large exception -- swing toward conservatives.

The exception is that moderates remain far more skeptical about government -- and government spending -- than liberals do. Conservative misrule has given them every reason to believe that large portions of their taxes are wasted. Not surprisingly, Republicans and conservatives have already been trying to paint Obama as a tax-and-spend liberal, while bemoaning the fact that Bush ran up deficits at the same time he increased spending across the board.

But progressives needn't be defensive about the majority that is dubious about government spending. Making government work effectively is at the heart, not the capillaries of the progressive agenda. This test doesn't distract; it focuses us on our task. No progressive majority can ever be consolidated for long if it doesn't demonstrate that government can be an effective ally for everyone.

And that is all moderates are looking for. They aren't skeptical about the need for government. By large margins, they think regulation does more good than harm. They want investments made in education and training. They favor a concerted government-led drive for energy independence. They far prefer a health-care plan with a choice between their current insurance and a public plan like Medicare, rather than one that would give them a tax credit to negotiate with insurance companies on their own. Their concern is less that government will do too much and more that government will fail to do what it must and waste their money in the process.

Continued>>>
http://www.prospect.org/cs/articles?article=the_emerging_centerleft_majority