Kyrgyzstan shows US the door

[CHIMO]

The war between Russia and Georgia last summer has claimed another victim: the US airbase in Kyrgyzstan.

The details of the US's apparent ejection from its only remaining base in ex-Soviet Central Asia remain murky, but initial reports suggest that the US was simply outbid by Russia. Russia offered a $2bn aid package to Kyrgyzstan, and the US's $150m annual payments to Kyrgyzstan suddenly looked pretty paltry. Underscoring the point, the president of Kyrgyzstan made the announcement not at home, but while on a trip to Moscow.

So it's tempting to write this off as bazaar politics. But the seeds for this move were sown last August in Georgia, when the US failed to do anything substantial to support its close ally in its war against Russia. Georgia, remember, sent a quarter of its armed forces to Iraq, despite the presence of two festering conflicts on its own soil, solely to curry favour with the US. It enacted free-market economic reforms so quickly, and in spite of significant social dislocation, that it was named the top reforming country in the world by the World Bank.

So when Georgia went to war with Russia and the US stood by, it sent a strong signal to the rest of America's would-be allies in the former Soviet Union. (Remember also, while it's now clear that Georgia and Russia were both culpable for that war breaking out, as soon as fighting started US officials immediately blamed Russia.) If the US isn't going to defend Georgia, would it defend Azerbaijan, or Ukraine or Kazakhstan?

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/cifamerica/2009/feb/04/kyrgyzstan-us-airbase-russia-afghanistan

[bhikkhu]

1. Close the base.

I believe that the billions we spend maintaining hundreds of military bases around the world are better spent here.

[Dover]

2. Critical to U.S. operations in Afghanistan

This is from an article dated Aug. 1, 2008


... One of the principal mechanisms by which China is expanding its influence in Kyrgyzstan and Central Asia is the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). The grouping was initially formed as the Shanghai Five in 1996, bringing together Russia, China and the three Central Asian countries of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, being renamed when Uzbekistan joined in 2001.

Despite its cosmopolitan membership, China is clearly the driving force behind the SCO, giving the organization's economic heavyweight the appearance of a well-intentioned mother hen. Last year saw Chinese President Hu Jintao's first state visit to Kyrgyzstan as he attended the annual SCO summit in the capital Bishkek, promising other SCO member states that "China would promote regional economic co-operation to advance towards mutual benefits and all-win results."

..snip..

Indeed, the growing influence of China within Kyrgyzstan's corridors of power, and in the foreign policy of other Central Asian states, has led to fears in Washington that the SCO is being developed to counter US interests in the region. These fears have been strengthened by the recent inclusion in the SCO of Iran, Pakistan, India, Mongolia and Afghanistan as either observer or guest nations.

Despite claims by Russian president Vladimir Putin and Hu Jintao that the SCO is not being built up as a rival to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, or NATO, the SCO has already secured the closure of a US military base in Uzbekistan in 2005. A similar base at Kyrgyzstan's Manas Airport in Bishkek, which is proving crucial for US and coalition operations in Afghanistan, remains open in spite of Sino-Russian pressure, although the rent has jumped to more than US$150 million a year (roughly 7% of Kyrgyzstan's entire GDP).

Kyrgyzstan is now paying for the price for not bending fully to Beijing's will. Bishkek's reluctance to close the Manas Base has been cited as a major factor in China's refusal to include Kyrgyzstan in a gas pipeline set to run from Turkmenistan to Xinjiang and beyond. Although the most direct route from Turkmenistan to China does pass through Kyrgyzstan, and the Kyrgyz government lobbied hard for inclusion in the project, Beijing’s move was interpreted by some as a warning to Kyrgyz leaders not to get too close to the US.

Indeed, despite China's ascendancy, Beijing isn't getting everything its own way in Kyrgyzstan. Alarmed by strengthening Chinese-Kyrgyz and Kazakh-Kyrgyz ties, Moscow has taken steps to renew its interest in the country. Former Russian president and now prime minister Vladimir Putin recently announced plans to invest up to $2 billion in the Kyrgyz economy, and Russian energy giant Gazprom is investing $300 million in a joint venture with Bishkek to explore for new fuel reserves and build pipeline infrastructure. Only 7% of Kyrgyzstan's land is available for agriculture and it has relatively limited hydrocarbon resources. ..cont'd


http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/JH01Ad01.html

------


October 13, 2008
Gazprom strengthens hold on Kyrgyz gas reserves
Expects Russian gas exports to Europe to rise, eyes Asia

Russian gas monopoly Gazprom, the world’s largest gas producer, signed a memorandum of understanding on October 9 with Kyrgyzstan which will help it buy a stake in Kyrgyz state-owned gas company Kyrgyzgaz. The memorandum was signed in Bishkek as part of Russia’s President Dmitry Medvedev‘s visit to Kyrgyzstan and paves the way for the parties to “comprehensively study the issue and draft general principles, options and main terms of Gazprom’s participation in the privatisation of the Kyrgyz government’s stake in Kyrgyzgaz equalling 75 percent plus one share in the company’s equity.”

..cont'd

http://www.neurope.eu/articles/90143.php

[bertman]

4. Once again, our failure to achieve energy independence proves to be a weakness.

The Chinese and the Russians are courting these countries for the same reasons we invaded Iraq and Afghanistan: energy in the form of petroleum and natural gas.

We've had 30-plus years to move toward becoming energy self-sufficient and have done almost nothing in that vein.

So once again we rely on our ability to bully the rest of the world into submission.

[bemildred]

3. I don't think it has much to do with Georgia.

And I doubt it has much to do with "rivaling NATO", though a desire to have NATO quit meddling in the area is likely part of it.