Quasi-Marxist explanations involving big oil or American capitalism are mistaken. Yes, American oil companies and contractors will accept the spoils of the kill in Iraq. But the oil business, with its Arabist bias, did not push for this war any more than it supports the Bush administration's close alliance with Ariel Sharon.If the Bushies believe the Peak Oil theorists are correct in their assesment that world oil production is going to peak in a much shorter time frame (e.g. 15 years or so) than has been officially acknowledged, it could provide a very important motivating factor for the invasion and planting of permanent US military bases in Iraq. The world runs on oil and petrochemicals. When world oil production peaks, those who exercise control over some of the largest remaining reserves of oil (i.e. Middle East) would have enormous strategic and economic advantages over potential rivals.
It could be significant too that one of the members of Cheney's 2001 energy task force, the prominent energy investment banker Matthew Simmons, appears to be a peak oiler and has publicly ruminated on the disasterous consequences of ignoring the consequences of peak oil. If the Bushies thought that the Peak Oil theory was correct and they were also intent on implementing the neo-con/PNAC plan for global US hegemony, (as discussed in
this DU thread) it would make sense to try and control the Middle Eastern and Iraqi oil fields.
Statement by Matthew Simmons, energy adviser for President Bush, at the 1:st International Workshop on Oil Depletion, Uppsala, Sweden, May, 23-25, 2002:
“We need a wake up call. We need it desperately. We need basically a new form of energy. I don’t know that there is one.” (TV4, Sweden)See links at
http://www.peakoil.net/MatSim.html For more on peak oil:
www.peakoil.net
www.hubbertpeak.com
http://globalpublicmedia.com/SECTIONS/ENERGY/oil.depletion.php