Iran, the Neocons, and the Bomb

[babylonsister]

http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/06/17/iran_the_neocons_and_the_bomb/?ref=fpd

Iran, the Neocons, and the Bomb
By William Hartung - June 17, 2009, 12:02PM


If the neocons are to be believed, Ahmadinejad's theft of the Iranian elections - and his continuing crackdown on dissent - are not the results of internal dynamics in Iran, but rather of the words of conciliation spoken by President Obama prior to the vote.

As the latest incarnation of Mitt Romney - the fire breathing hawk - put the right-wing case on ABC's "This Week" with George Stephanopoulos, "It is very clear that the president's policies of going around the world and apologizing for America aren't working."

snip//

First, it should be noted that the struggle in Iran is far from over. It is too early to tell whether Ahmadinejad will maintain his power through the barrel of a gun, or whether the popular protests can last long enough and be strong enough to force him out of office.

But, if Ahmadinejad prevails, it will be with reduced power. As Joe Cirincione has noted on the Huffington Post, "he will be greatly weakened, handcuffed in his ability to play the nuclear card as a nationalist rallying cry. Pressed at home, he will need to show some gains internationally; the nuclear issue must be compromised to realize those gains." In particular, the needed economic progress that either an Ahmadinejad or a Mousavi government will need to show will depend on an opening to the West, which means putting the nuclear program on the table.

In any case, no one is suggesting that negotiations on Iran's nuclear program go forward immediately. Obviously there will need to be a pause while the current political crisis plays itself out. But when the dust settles, negotiations will still be the most viable option for curbing Iran's nuclear ambitions.

The neocon's alternatives - from economic strangulation to military intervention - make about as much sense as their brilliant plan of invading Iraq to eliminate weapons of mass destruction that did not in fact exist.