The Recession is Over )Newsweek Article)

[dtotire]

The Recession is Over

Now what we need is a new kind of recovery


http://www.newsweek.com/id/208633

In Westport, Mass., about 60 miles southwest of Boston, traffic crawls along Route 6 as drivers make their way to the nearby Atlantic beaches like Horseneck or Baker's. A 10-worker crew pouring and raking asphalt onto the road slows their progress. It's the kind of small annoyance drivers nationwide face each summer. It's also one small manifestation of President Barack Obama's ambitious strategy for jump-starting the economy.

In April, the P.J. Keating Co., a construction firm based in Lunenburg, Mass., bid on about a dozen stimulus projects funded through the U.S. Transportation Department. It won two contracts, including this $4.06 million job, rescuing what would have been a dismal year for P.J. Keating, says David Baker, 36, a manager of construction operations. As business dwindled over the past two years, the firm laid off about a dozen people. "We definitely would have been faced with another half-dozen layoffs had we not gotten these stimulus projects," Baker says. Instead, the company kept all its remaining 300 employees, and hired five new ones. Ordinarily, a few -government-funded jobs, like traffic on Route 6, wouldn't be noteworthy. But the tableau neatly encapsulates the promise—and pitfalls—of an economy at an inflection point. 'snip'

[Oregone]

1. I think this all just means: hello stagflation

So we *might* stop tumbling. Thats not going to make things magically better.

Here is an interesting title:

The recession is over. Cue the painful recovery
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/the-recession-is-over-cue-the-painful-recovery/article1229378/

Im not sure what all this talk is about. A painful jobless "end" of the recession most certainly seems like everyone is still in a recessed economy.

[FreakinDJ]

3. No - it means our Trade Agreements have eliminated millions of jobs

Say "Hello" to the New Globalist/Free Trade Economy"

Brought to you by the same folks that "Manufactured" Credit Default Swaps, and the current Economic Crisis

[lurky]

2. According to his bio at Newsweek,

one of the author's books is "Pop! Why Bubbles Are Great for the Economy", published in 2007.

Interpret however you like.

[FreakinDJ]

5. From Publishers Weekly

From Publishers Weekly

Starred Review. Three cheers for "exuberant, foolish, mad overinvestment!" Slate columnist Gross takes a counterintuitive look at economic bubbles—those once-in-a-generation crazes that everyone knows can't last, and don't. With each one, we lament having gotten in too late, and then not having gotten out soon enough, and finally shake our heads at the inevitable bankruptcies and lost jobs and general financial wreckage.

The pattern is all too familiar, which is why Gross's argument is so intriguing: that these bubbles, with their hype and madness and overenthusiasm, are not to be feared—they're actually a primary engine of "America's remarkable record of economic growth and innovation." The author surveys modern bubbles and finds the benefits far more durable than the disruptions: in each case, most investors flopped, but businesses and consumers found themselves with a "usable commercial infrastructure" that they quickly put to new uses. The telegraph "led to the creation of national and international financial markets"; extra railroad lines made national consumer brands possible and gave consumers access to distant stores; extra fiber-optic capacity gave everyone Internet access after the bust. Gross drops zingers throughout his cheery history, amusingly highlighting parallels between past and current bubbles. He concludes—with admirable practicality—by calling for a "real bubble" to jump-start alternative-energy programs. (May)

Copyright © Reed Business Information, a division of Reed Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
http://www.amazon.com/Pop-Why-Bubbles-Great-Economy/dp/0061151548

More of an optimist then a lunatic

[Truth Talks]

4. How bad will Great Depression II get? (Oops!)

Yikes, I guess I jumped the gun when I asked "How bad will 'Great Depression II' get" in this thread. I should have read Newsweek first; I feel like such a fool. ;)

[lib2DaBone]

6. The Recession is over until October....

.. then Commercial Real Estate collapses, the dollar drops to 60.. gasoline goes back to $5 and Israel attacks Iran.

[BR_Parkway]

11. Why October? I've seen the charts on Alt-A reset and crumble in

first half of 2010, but nothing about commercial.

[winyanstaz]

15. and don't forget the credit card industry...

that is falling now..cause people don't have jobs to pay their credit card bills.

[quiller4]

19. default rate is less now than it was in March. The default % in June

was the same as August 2008 before the Wall Street crash.

[quiller4]

16. Why do you think commercial real estate will collapse?

Commercial sales are up and occupancy rates for commercial buildings are up almost 12% since March.

[timeforpeace]

7. Yeah, it is. Now it's a depression.

[neverforget]

8. Correction: it's over for Goldman Sachs but not for the rest of us.

[quiller4]

17. It sure seems over in my neighborhood. The two neighbors

who were laid off in April have new jobs==both paying better than the ones they lost. The two largest employers in area are hiring. Sales of new and existing homes are up and retirees are finally seeing their pension investments regain some losses. My sister's employer finally started hiring agains so she is through with all the mandatory overtime. My retired spouse (who doesn't want to return to work) has turned down two job offers this month.

[northernlights]

9. after the last recession ended

I got a job for $10/hour at a local tourist company. It lasted 18 months before, to avoid paying unemployment, they forced me to quit by invading my property and assaulting my animals. I realize it's my fault. I should have left when they poisoned me and harrassed me with 24x7 hangup calls...

Now I'm broke, am halfway through a healthcare training program, can't sell my house and can't borrow living money to finish the program.

whoopee. the recession is over. Next week I start a job for minimum wage at Subway. We'll see how long that lasts.

Did I mention, before the high tech crash I used to make 6 figures. After the high tech crash I made mid 5 figures, until 9/11. Now I'm over 50 and all I'm good for is making sandwiches.

[Truth Talks]

10. I feel your pain.

I got laid off from a teaching job shortly after 9/11. I loved working with children, but the bureaucracy was horrendous and the pay pretty low. After sixteen years, I got laid off. I was unemployed for two years until I got a job with the U.S. Postal Service. As a "casual" employee, I had no union protection. At first, that worked to my advantage; I was actually recognized for my hard work and got a virtual full-time position. But after six months, I was forced to transfer to the Clerk division, and the supervisors were unbelievable - it was effectively organized crime, just like the school district.

So I abandoned ship and went to work for UPS, where I get screwed every day by both UPS and my "union," the Teamsters.

Yet even with a part-time night shift position, I feel lucky. I can even continue to dream about self-employment as I continue working on my websites. I guess I'm lucky to not have a home or family to worry about, huh?

[northernlights]

13. well I celebrated the Subway job too soon

The manager told me last Wednesday just let her know when I'd taken the test and I could start work. I took the test Friday (couldn't log in Thursday). She was out over the weekend.

As of this morning, well, her boss has to review my app and he decides. But she doesn't expect any problems. She didn't sound very convinced of that.

2 weeks and I'll be flat busted broke. If I have to give away my animals, I will kill myself. That is my last straw.

[fasttense]

12. But what exactly has changed since the economy went into free fall?

Regulations for banks and Wall Street firms are still merely hot-air in Congress. Unemployment continues to increase, minimum wage is still stuck at 1959 levels. We are all still paying for health care insurance that doesn't pay for health care. The cost of gas and everything else is still rising despite a decrease in demand. The biggest part of the stimulus package, tax cuts and unemployment benefits, has already been distributed. To make matters worse the Extended Unemployment benefits offered by the stimulus bill are about to run out for millions of people in August 2009.

I think Newsweek and Daniel Gross will have to eat their words in about 30 days.

The Recession isn't Over until the fat lady sings and she is currently unemployed.

[martinknight]

18. Crystal Ball Still Foggy

Unemployment is a lagging indicator. It is the last thing to change in a recovery. The leading indicators are starting to show gains. Stocks have come up impressively (+20%) since the March bottom. Company earnings are showing mostly positive surprises. Housing prices showed their first gain in 3 years last month. This thing started with a credit freeze, and now banks are lending money again and showing profits. This says that we are turning the corner. On the other hand, retail sales are still in the toilet, consumer confidence is still dismal, and unemployment is still climbing from a pretty high level. So, it is no slam dunk that the recession is over.

golf swing speed

[quiller4]

20. In my state unemplyment rates is tied to cost of living index.

The price of gas is down 22% since late May. Retail stores are showing same store sales increases over last summer. The sentiments of the Newsweek article, which doesn't say that all pain is over, have been reflected in local papers for some months now.

[OwnedByFerrets]

14. Not for me, or for anyone I know.

[TrogL]

21. I saw Jack Layton speak last night (leader of Canadian NDP party)

He said the recession may well be over for those few people having stock, the real recession stops when employment gets back to normal, which will be no time soon under the current Canadian government.