THE DARK YEARS ARE HERE

[Joanne98]

The Dark Years are here

July 14, 2009

by Egon von Greyerz – Matterhorn Asset Management

In this newsletter we will outline what is likely to be the devastating effect of the credit bubbles,
government money printing and of the disastrous actions that governments are taking. Starting in the next 6
months and culminating in 2011-12 the world will experience a series of tumultuous events which will be
life changing for most people in the world. But 2011-12 will not be the beginning of an upturn in the world
economy but instead the start of a long period of economic, political and social upheaval that could last for
a couple of decades.
We will discuss the three areas that we for some time have argued will determine the fate of the world for
the foreseeable future, namely the coming unemployment explosion, the next and much more serious phase
in the credit markets and finally the likely hyperinflationary or just inflationary effect this will have on the
world economy and investments.
EMPIRES ARE BUILT ON THEFT PILLAGE, SLAVE LABOUR AND FINALLY MONEY PRINTING
Let us first go back in history and analyse what creates an empire and the prosperity that comes with it.
The British Empire started in the 17th century and reached its peak in the 19th century during Queen
Victoria’s reign. By the end of the 19th century The British Empire included nearly 20% of the land surface
of the world and 25% of the world’s population. So Britain which is less than 0.5% of the world’s land
surface area controlled an empire which was more than 50 times greater. So by using slave labour and by
stealing the resources of 20% of the world, it is no wonder that Britain was the wealthiest nation for several
centuries. But like all empires, Britain carried the seeds of its own destruction. All empires – e.g.
Mongolian, Roman, Ottoman or British etc. – eventually overstretch their resources both militarily and
financially. This combined with decadence and illusions of grandeur eventually leads to the collapse of an
empire.
The US empire was slightly different from the point of view that it never conquered the world although the
US was itself a colony conquered from its original inhabitants. But the US has intervened in many areas
(e.g. Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq etc.). Also, there are US military bases in 120 countries. Initially
the US was an economic superpower based on an entrepreneurial spirit and a very strong production
machine backed by fierce military power. But after the Vietnam war the US had overstretched its resources
and by 1971 Richard Nixon abolished the gold standard in order to be able to start money printing in
earnest. The money printing phase is normally the last stage of an empire before it collapses and this is
where the US is now. The US dollar became the reserve currency of the world when the US was strong
economically. But as the US economy started to weaken in the 1960-70’s the US government found a much
better method for maintaining a strong economy. It started to print paper that it sold to other nations or
exchanged for goods and services. For almost 50 years this has been the most clever way ever devised of
maintaining the living standards of an economically deteriorating nation without even having to spend any
resources on building an empire. It is a Ponzi scheme which has worked for several decades but slowly the
world is now waking up to the fact that they are holding worthless paper printed by the US Government.
(We realise this is a much simplified version of empire building and destruction but it is nevertheless an
accurate analysis).
THE US GOVERNMENT IS IN DENIAL
The US is haemorrhaging financially and economically. It has lent or committed almost $13 trillion in the
last 18 months to prop up the financial system. The estimated government deficit in the current year is
almost $2 trillion or 50% of the budget. All the money committed so far has only achieved two things:
Firstly it has created some short term hope which together with totally illusionary sightings of green shoots
have generated a small stock market correction (which we forecast in our January Newsletter) and some
belief that the crisis is ending. Secondly, all the funds printed so far to save the system have gone to Wall
Street but has done nothing whatsoever for the real economy. Every single sector of the real economy is
deteriorating whether it is production, unemployment, corporate profits, real estate, credit defaults,
construction, federal deficits, local government and state deficits etc.
And what is the government doing about it. They are doing the only thing they know which is to print more
money.
This is total lunacy! How can any intelligent person believe that printed pieces of paper can solve an
economic catastrophe?
If that were the case we could all go home and write out pieces of paper or use Monopoly money to spend
in the shops or repay our debts.
How can the US government, the UK government and most other governments not understand that the only
way to run an economy is to cut your coat according to your cloth. This is why the emperor had no clothes
because the country had run out of gold thread to make the cloth. Until now the US as well as other
countries have been able to buy the cloth because the world has been foolish enough to accept worthless
pieces of paper as payment. But this is coming to an end very soon and many countries will be without both
coats and cloth.
What governments are doing with people’s money is to totally destroy its value. Purchasing power in the
US and many other countries has declined more than 95% in the last 100 years. While it might buy votes
short term it will only generate massive misery long term. And this is what many countries are starting to
experience now. But sadly it will get a lot worse. We are still only in the first phase of this tragic saga. The
second phase is likely to start in the next 6 months.

Continued>>>
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/The%20Dark%20Years%20Are%20Here.pdf

[JenGatherer]

1. Please, let's not let

The right wing survivalist types be the only ones controlling real resources when the big crash hits. I am stocking up long term food resources and learning about homesteading. I am nearly always the only leftist on these survivalist sites and it's not pretty.

[Joanne98]

3. Welcome to DU. I agree. The left needs to start preparing too.

Although I don't agree with everything in this article. I think the "trickle down" model has been a big part of the problem too. Along with shipping the manufacturing sector, or the REAL jobs, off to China. They totally screwed us. They have taken us from the most prosperous country in the world to bankruptcy. All in the name of Empire and greed.

The damage is to big to fix. We're in for long term suffering.

[ixion]

5. Yep, I've been preparing for a little over a year now

buying food and supplies, honing my gardening and hunting skills, buying property out in the middle of nowhere and working on an autonomous dwelling, working with solar power...everything that will be needed when the wheels come off.

I've been telling people about it, and in fact have started a YouTube series called "Wild Houses" which will document the entire process. I'm hoping it will help others.

And you're right. At this point, the RW survival types are way ahead of the curve. Progressives shouldn't be deluded by 'green shoots' and should be learning to grow food and make things.

[Joanne98]

6. Is this your youtube channel?

http://www.youtube.com/user/kmcowan

[ixion]

11. Yep, that's the one...

I'm holding off for a few weeks at the moment because it's mid-summer, but I'll be starting up again towards the end of August.

[Joanne98]

18. You should post them on DU videos.

[ixion]

40. I've thought about that

but they're not really political in nature, so I didn't want to post them in the DU video section. I may start posting them in Rural or Frugal Living groups at some point, though. :)

[zipplewrath]

8. Water

Kinda wonder what your scenario is for which you are preparing, and how you figure to maintain a connection to water during it.

[ixion]

12. of course, it always depends where you are

but in my case I have ample rain and am only a few feet away from ground water. I'll use a combination of both.

[zipplewrath]

38. It's the scenario I wonder about

Ground water and rain water are fairly insecure, depending upon what you think the nature of the local infrastructure and population is. You seem to think food will not be readily available. Why would you continue to have access to water as well?

[ixion]

41. rain is insecure, ground water, though

is fairly stable in this particular environment. I have another property in AZ that is more of a problem in this regard. It will certainly be a challenge, but adaptability is what humans are all about. ;)

[zipplewrath]

42. More thinking of "secure from whom"

Again, it's the scenario you seem to be preparing for that I wonder about. You seem to believe that there will be an in ability to access food because infrastructure has been compromised. I'm wondering in such a situation what would make the available ground water secure and accessible. Such a scare resource would be ripe for others to try to gain control.

[tavalon]

31. Are you banding with others or going it alone?

I think we'll need to go tribal or perish.

[ixion]

32. I'm alone at the moment...

but I expect there will be others around at some point.

[troubledamerican]

35. Book recommendation -- The Self-Sufficiency Bible // Video recommendation

The best book, bar-none, on self-sufficiency:

http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0789493322/ref=ox_ya_oh_product

John Seymour's "The Self-Sufficient Life".

Amazon.com's "Browse" feature does not accurately enable you to view the body of the book. Each page is lavishly illustrated and intensely organized, not reflected in their "Browse" sample.

Thanks to you for your video contribution. I've been downloading hundreds of these type of videos from around the Net. I'm already duplicating your off-grid wilderness homesteading plan, albeit with my brother and a few friends, and we're leaving the U.S. 8/25. I think this is going to be a bad autumn -- Israel will bomb Iran, OPEC oil embargo #2, giant natural disaster compounds it, Great Depression 2, ultra-right "Maverick" Third Party rises, etc.

I think that "Whereever you are in Autumn 2009 is where you will be stuck" is the rule, because travel will be prohibitive due to fuel prices/currency desiccation.

Video link recommendation for you: http://vimeo.com/user1871182

Here's a guy whose goal is to build electronic equipment from scratch in the wilderness. Good stuff.

Good luck to you. Stay out of Colorado. Get out of the U.S. if you can. Anywhere will be better.

[Hestia]

45. Exactly Tavalon - tribal will be the answer. If we do wan as an Empire,

it's not going to be like the British, all polite, it's going to be wars, unfortunately. It will be those who did not prepare against those who did. How can one person/household hold off bands of marauders?

[dixiegrrrrl]

9. Yeah, the drool factor is high on those sites.

Fortunately, we have a couple of forums here with good links.

Unfortunately, the OP is pretty accurate, for us "new serfs" at least.

[Grinchie]

21. You better rethink your "Long-Term Food Resources"

Because you are obviously unaware that food with a long shelf life is actually nutritious and will sustain you. It may fill your belly, and fool you into not being hungry for a while, but it the long run, you might as well be eating PowerBars made from Old Chinese Newspapers.

Secondly, there is the cost of ownership.. Keeping it all Dry, safe and secure. You may take this for granted, especially if you live in a permanent structure, but this tethers you to a single spot, and you are trapped into maintaining your food supply.

I actually forced myself into an off the grid lifestyle several years ago as an experiment and found that the reality of living a happy, self sustaining life is 180` opposite to what you would find in "Homesteading" books, and general literature that is meant to distract people into doing things a particular way.

One only has to look at the ancient cultures of the Pacific Islanders to see what is truly valuable, and what is fluff generated by dreamers sitting in their victorian mansions on their estates in England in their free time.

They don't even make the tools required for real homesteading anymore, and I wish you luck finding them.

[dgibby]

23. Try googling: Sustainable Living

Much better sites,same info without the crazies.:hi:

Also, check out DU groups: rural/farm, gardening, frugal living.

Another thing to google: CSA, community supported agriculture.

[troubledamerican]

33. Amen.

[tomreedtoon]

39. I'm buying lots of guns too, JenGatherer.

I'm preparing to kill anyone who gets near me, just like you. AFter all, since the OP says civilization is over, why be civilized?

ON EDIT: I unrecommended the original thread for spreading paranoia, fear and anger, which is supposed to be the job of Republicans.

[Mojorabbit]

46. Preparing here too

I am liking being somewhat self sufficient.

[HiyaEmerald Eyes]

2. EMPIRES ARE BUILT ON THEFT PILLAGE, SLAVE LABOUR AND FINALLY MONEY PRINTING

[Joanne98]

4. Welcome to DU!

[OwnedByFerrets]

7. We are in a spiral which will lead to the wealthy and the

working poor.

[dixiegrrrrl]

10. which set the stage for French Revolution & Bolshevik Revolution

and, in fact, the mini-revolution here in the 30's, which most people have not heard of, except for the
bonus March on Washington.

A line from something i read the other night:

Many years ago, the population would have marched on Washington, dragged the perpetrators out of their lairs, and strung them up from the nearest lamp posts, but this is not considered possible these days, even if the majority do realize it, because after many years sitting on comfy sofas watching the television, people just don't have the stomach for it.
That might change, however, if the sofa and TV set suddenly vanish.

[truedelphi]

26. Or perhaps the End Times in which Dr Kissinger can finally see

The elimination of nine tenths of the world's population, an elimination that he proposed as being a necessary solution.

This article only discusses money - but with Monsanto owning the seeds and thus the food, and perhaps the collapse of farming due to either the economic forces inherent in this notion, or the actual biological nightmare that these GMO's might entail, then famine will be rampant.

[formercia]

13. Time to go work on the garden

I was just taking a break but this motivates me to get back to work.

[Butch350]

14. What's the percentage of a predicted future coming to pass?

[Joanne98]

16. Well it's not that hard to predict. All the indicators are pointing DOWN!

No matter what the media or the politicians say. You can't ignore the fact that they have no plans that will help fix the real problems. Which is unemployment for at least 20% of Americans if you count them all.

There's going to be more contagion probably this fall.

[truedelphi]

27. It depends if the person making the prediction is relying on indicators that

A logical mind would notice, or "intuition"

This post seems to be well grounded in both an understanding of the basics of economics, and the basics of the study of Empires rising and falling, and the overall "game plan" that has occurred over the last two years.

This game plan involves only the successful THEFT of the eleven to fourteen trillion dollars that Bernanke and Geithenr, with Paulson before them, have snatched away from the real economy and handed over to AIG and Goldman Sachs.

So chances are pretty Good that the future predicted by zerohedges will become reality.

Of course, events left unconsidered from this discourse by zerohedges, such as civil unrest, huge natural catastrophes, like Earthquakes hitting the SF Bay area, or some benevolent UNTHEFT (Think of Robin Hood computer hackers that return the stolen monies from Wall Street, giving the trillions to Main Street where it rightfully belongs) can still change this outcome.

Or if people got up and created a worker's movement, or a People's Union, and throughhard work and courage on the streets, took back this corrupt society of ours. In the teens, twenties and thirties, this country had a huge people's movement, such that 24 states banned outright foreclosures, and people would rally at any household when the eviction people came to put a family in the streets.

Instead we watch "Can She Dance" or whatever, and hope that Obama will turn into some mythic fairy prince. Which he cannot do, as the puppeteer's strings are already firmly attached, guiding him into doing the Corporate Bidding.

[Butch350]

43. I remember...

The Y2k thingy. Also of the many Sci-Fi scenerios, that had us earthlings moving about in flying cars before the year 2000
and us living in shiny modern looking high rise buildings with landing pads and such and people dressed in these one piece
glittery jump suites. Oh and I forgot about the levitated stuctures.

[bvar22]

15. I disagree with only one part:

About the fifth paragraph, 2nd Section that states,
"THE US GOVERNMENT IS IN DENIAL"

The government is not in "denial".
The government is IN on the scam.....BOTH Parties.

Most American aristocrats believe that they are going to be safe in their upscale gated communities protected by Private Police Forces.
They are wrong.
We will EAT them.

Only the TOP .001% will be able to escape to private islands or small European (or Saudi) Monarchies to live lives of unbelievable luxury.

We cashed out, moved to The Woods, and planted a BIG garden in 2006.
The performance of the Democratic Party since then has only reassured us that we
made the right decision.

[Joanne98]

17. You're probably right. We'll know for sure pretty soon.

[Grinchie]

22. Exactly, the Oligarchs forget that they are a tiny fraction of individuals

And it's only time when the defensive mechanisms of the world population recognize the Cancer growing within their midst.

If one approaches the entire human population like a single entity such as the Human body, it's pretty clear that Hum anitywill destroy it's pathogens one way or another.

Being locked away in their gated communities will not get them food or water, and they will slowly starve to death.

[dgibby]

24. Ding! Ding! Ding! We have a winner! n/t

[dixiegrrrrl]

19. 13 million people will be destitute by Dec.

NO income. None.
That is a very sobering article JoAnne linked to, and most important reading.

Meanwile the "disagreement" goes on whether or not we are in a Depression, while the Government
covers up the real numbers to the actual money suppy, the actual unemployment rate, the actual
insolvency of the Big Banks, etc etc etc.

Denial has never been my friend.

[cutlassmama]

20. we most certainly are already in a Depression. The Great Depression II

[Joanne98]

25. Has anybody heard of this book.. The Fourth Turning.....

How long will the Dark Years last? There is a book called ”The Fourth Turning” written by Neil Howe. He
has identified a pattern that repeats itself every 80 years. The pattern has been extremely accurate in the
Anglophile world. We have recently entered the Fourth Turning which is the final 20 years of the cycle.
According to Howe we are in the early stages of a 20 year period of economic and institutional upheaval.
This is a period of Crisis when the fabric of society will change dramatically. Previous Fourth Turnings
have been the American Revolution, Great Depression and World War II. According to Howe the Crisis
will be substantially worse before it is over and it will last for another circa 20 years.


http://www.amazon.com/Fourth-Turning-William-Strauss/dp/0767900464

This review is from: The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy (Hardcover)
I picked up a copy of "The Fourth Turning" because to refresh myself on the generational differences of donors. I was hoping to help a colleague wrestle with how to apply fundraising techniques with attention to these cohorts. Having read the authors' 13th Gen a few years ago, I knew this would be an erudite review. I got what I was looking for and much more! "The Fourth Turning" is actually a compelling look at human history, especially Western history since the middle of the fifteenth century!
Howe and Strauss have amazingly taken the most recent 20th century generations (GI, Silent, Boomer, Xer, and Millennial) and found corresponding generations for the last few hundred years. From this, they've developed a convincing rubric of generational archetypes-GIs and Millennials are the "Hero," Silents are the "Artist," Boomers are the "Prophet," and Xers are the "Nomad." Moreover, they've revisited the millennia old theory that time moves through seasons in a cyclical pattern, one that corresponds with the seasons of the year. The post-WWII era was our "High" or spring; the Consciousness Revolution was our "Awakening" or summer; the 80's and 90's was our "Unraveling" or fall; and we're currently headed for our "Crisis" or winter. They chose to label the seasons "turnings" and the time encompassing the four turnings as the "saecula," a label used by the ancients that roughly corresponds to a century.

With an amazing attention to detail, a scholarly eye to history, and a wonderfully readable writing style, Howe and Strauss show the interplay of the generational archetypes and the turnings. For example, they point to the similarities of the spiritual emphasis of the 1960s and 1970s with the Transcendentalists of the 1800s, the Great Awakening of the 1700s, and the Puritan Awakening of the 1600s, and the Protestant Reformation of the 1500s!

"The Fourth Turning" will definitely affect the way you view history as well as the events of today. Though written in 1997, they illustrate "highly unlikely" scenarios that might precipitate the coming Crisis such as: "A global terrorist group blows up an aircraft and announces it possesses portable nuclear weapons. The United States and its allies launch a preemptive strike. The terrorists threaten to retaliate against an American city..."!

While I don't know if we're currently into the Crisis or not, I do know that "The Fourth Turning" is a must read for anyone trying to raise money in today's economic environment. Not only will the savvy fundraiser ferret out ways to frame their case for the different generations, she will also see how different turnings may affect fundraising efforts. If we are indeed heading for a fourth turning, and Howe and Strauss make that highly believable, I think we in the nonprofit world are uniquely situated to help our cultures ride out this winter and successfully enter the spring.

Although full of grim warnings, "The Fourth Turning" is a hope-filled book well worth reading.

CONTENTS:

1. Winter Comes Again

PART I: Seasons
2. Seasons of Time
3. Seasons of Life
4. Cycles of History
5. Gray Champions

PART II: Turnings
6. The First Turning: American High (1946-1964)
7. The Second Turning: Consciousness Revolution (1964-1984)
8. The Third Turning: Culture Wars (1984-2005?)
9. Fourth Turnings in History
10. A Fourth Turning Prophecy

PART III: Preparations
11. Preparing for the Fourth Turning
12. The Eternal Return

http://www.amazon.com/Fourth-Turning-William-Strauss/dp/0767900464

[troubledamerican]

34. The "70 Years" Rule of U.S. History

Every 70 years there is a "turning point" that sets the direction for the next 70 years.

1789: Constitution ratified.

+ 70 Years: 1859: Start of Civil War

+ 70 Years: 1929: Start of Great Depression

+ 71 Years: 2000: Bush V Gore overturns an election, 9/11, Patriot Act, Iraq invasion, Military Commissions Act

We are also repeating the Great Depression -- I predict it won't begin fully until this autumn (9/9/09 Israel bombs Iran with U.S. logistical aid, catalyzing OPEC oil embargo #2 repeating the 1970s embargo, sending oil to $318/barrel by December, $9/gal gasoline on Christmas). If there is a major natural disaster in Africa or Asia this autumn, interfering with supply (or providing an excuse that can be blamed on supply issues), prices will skyrocket even higher than $9/gal.

Beware August 1945 + 70 yrs. I predict we will witness use of nuclear weapons by a major world nation as a "fin de siècle".

[Joanne98]

37. Oh man. Thanks

[bertman]

28. I recommended this, but goddam it's depressing as hell to read about and think about.

[Joanne98]

29. I know. But it's better to have warning then to get caught by surprise.

Hopefully it won't be this bad.

:scared:

[bertman]

30. Hopefully not. I'd love to think that we could escape the madness by going to live in

out-of-the-way places on the continent, but I'm skeptical that any but the best-organized and best-armed groups working for their mutual protection would repel the hordes of marauding city dwellers who will inevitably go where the food is.

[troubledamerican]

36. "The Long Emergency" by James Howard Kunstler

http://www.amazon.com/Long-Emergency-Converging-Catastrophes-Twenty-First/dp/B002ECEG0M/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1248841641&sr=8-1

Synopsis article in Rolling Stone Magazine:

http://www.rollingstone.com/news/story/7203633/the_long_emergency

Sample:

"Carl Jung, one of the fathers of psychology, famously remarked that "people cannot stand too much reality." What you're about to read may challenge your assumptions about the kind of world we live in, and especially the kind of world into which events are propelling us. We are in for a rough ride through uncharted territory.

It has been very hard for Americans -- lost in dark raptures of nonstop infotainment, recreational shopping and compulsive motoring -- to make sense of the gathering forces that will fundamentally alter the terms of everyday life in our technological society. Even after the terrorist attacks of 9/11, America is still sleepwalking into the future. I call this coming time the Long Emergency.

Most immediately we face the end of the cheap-fossil-fuel era. It is no exaggeration to state that reliable supplies of cheap oil and natural gas underlie everything we identify as the necessities of modern life -- not to mention all of its comforts and luxuries: central heating, air conditioning, cars, airplanes, electric lights, inexpensive clothing, recorded music, movies, hip-replacement surgery, national defense -- you name it...."

[Moostache]

44. If I had a dollar for every time Kunstler was wrong...

I do not mean to downplay the importance of actually SOLVING the problems we face now - in particular reigning in the idea that only the profit motive is enough reason to do anything and everything, the kind of thinking that leads to resource depletion, unsustainable developments and many of the current crises we face; but relying on Kunstler as a seer is pure folly. His entire Modus Operandi is based on screaming the sky is falling and making increasingly dire predictions on what the time table to Armageddon should be this month, he then rinses and repeats as often as necessary. He has predicted the stock market to fall to zero on multiple occasions and has been mouth-breathing for the downfall of society for YEARS! He is a cottage industry unto himself, and it does not take wisdom to see a burning building and constantly scream that its going to collapse over and over until it finally does. I guess there will always be somebody who believes it is important to have "been right all along", no matter how many times they have to say it first...

Maybe its all going to happen that way in time, maybe we are in fact on a one-way track to self-destruction and Mad-Max or Waterworld style biker gangs on crank running the show - I doubt we have the collective public conscience to stop at least some kind of massive social upheaval in this country - but lets not forget that the fall of the British Empire did not involve a trip back to the stone ages and a free-fall into anarchy in Britain. I fear that Americans will be finding themselves cursing the fall of science education and engineering in this country.

Guns can kill but they cannot feed.
Bombs can destroy but they cannot produce useful energy.
Planes can avoid radar but they cannot provide shelter.
Tanks can subdue a mob but they cannot deliver true freedom.

A functioning society can provide food, develop renewable energy, build communities and offer true freedom to its members. We no longer have a functioning society and have not ever since Reagan destroyed the economy and funneled vast monies to defense spending. The great irony is that the weapons meant to protect us from the outside world could very well end up being the very things that destroy us internally. Imagine a group of right-wing religious extremists in control of a small nuclear arsenal...I fear THAT more than an Iranian nuclear program...

[OwnedByFerrets]

48. Wish I could recommend YOUR post.

[Fearless]

47. I'll bet you all a thousand dollars that this doesn't happen in your lifetime.

(Granted if it did the money would be worthless.) However, this is paranoia and nothing more. It is derived from the same part of the human psyche as the Biblical Apocalypse or the Inca 2012 BS or any number of other uninformed gut reactions caused by stressed out people feeling as though they have nothing else to lose. Well, get over it. Nothing is going to happen.