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The top issues in the presidential election are expected to be the economy and national security. But in what is expected to be a close contest, it will be critical for each candidate to get core supporters to the polls.
For Bush, a Methodist, that means courting white evangelical Protestants, of which a strong majority support his re-election, according to various polls. Mindful that 4 million religious conservatives stayed away from the polls in 2000, the Bush team this year has launched an aggressive get-out-the-vote campaign among millions of white evangelical, fundamentalist and Pentecostal Christians, particularly in states with large numbers of swing voters.
Moreover, Bush has sided with evangelicals by calling for a constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage, securing passage of the partial-birth abortion ban, opposing human cloning and stem-cell research, and nominating several conservative judges.
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Kerry's White House hopes could hinge on the millions of Catholics who live in battleground states such as Florida, Illinois and Ohio. Some political analysts predict the Massachusetts senator, who is Catholic, may have a hard time attracting those who regularly attend Mass and strictly follow the messages from the pulpit. Kerry's support for stem-cell research, legalized abortion and same-sex unions runs counter to church teaching.
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"If Kerry can say, 'I'm religious, too, and my church teaches you need to take care of the poor and give them jobs and health care,' that gives him some moral grounding," said Olson of Clemson University. "He could stand to gain by talking about being Catholic and emphasizing some of the social justice teachings of the church." A survey this month by the Center for Applied Research in the Apostolate at Georgetown University found that Catholic voters were split between Bush and Kerry, with 45 percent supporting Kerry and 41 percent backing Bush. One group – white Catholics – tends to be increasingly up for grabs. In 1988, white Catholics chose George H.W. Bush over Michael Dukakis by a close margin. They backed Bill Clinton over George H.W. Bush in 1992, and Clinton over Bob Dole in 1996. In 2000, George W. Bush took 52 percent of this vote, compared with Al Gore's 45 percent.
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