Experts see double-digit Dem losses

[fencesitter]

Politico.com

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0809/26393.html

After an August recess marked by raucous town halls, troubling polling data and widespread anecdotal evidence of a volatile electorate, the small universe of political analysts who closely follow House races is predicting moderate to heavy Democratic losses in 2010.

Some of the most prominent and respected handicappers can now envision an election in which Democrats suffer double-digit losses in the House — not enough to provide the 40 seats necessary to return the GOP to power but enough to put them within striking distance.

Top political analyst Charlie Cook, in a special August 20 update to subscribers, wrote that “the situation this summer has slipped completely out of control for President Obama and congressional Democrats.”

"Many veteran congressional election watchers, including Democratic ones, report an eerie sense of déjà vu, with a consensus forming that the chances of Democratic losses going higher than 20 seats is just as good as the chances of Democratic losses going lower than 20 seats,” he wrote.
At the mid-August Netroots Nation convention, Nate Silver, a Democratic analyst whose uncannily accurate, stat-driven predictions have made his website FiveThirtyEight.com a must read among political junkies, predicted that Republicans will win between 20 and 50 seats next year. He further alarmed an audience of progressive activists by arguing that the GOP has between a 25 and 33 percent chance of winning back control of the House

******
C'mon dems, stop screwing around and unite behind your president. Get some spine, get rid of Harry Reid and dismiss the crazies.

[babylonsister]

1. politico. Whodathunkit?

:crazy:

[ShortnFiery]

2. True. politico.com = mouthpiece of the ruling elite within the D.C. beltway.

[Captain Hilts]

3. The DNC, the House, the Senate and the White House ALL need to show some spine...

Why did the WH and DNC let Max Baucus get away with the shit he got away with? WHY?

It's been all downhill from there.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

4. Politico -- only marginally more credible

than worldnutdaily.

[Warpy]

5. If they don't get off their fat asses and pass a decent health bill

they'd better get used to being the minority party for another decade or more, which is what happened when they wimped out in 1993.

Disgusted Democrats will simply stay home rather than vote for a bunch of spineless do nothings who aren't going to do their jobs, only fatten their own coffers at the country's expense.

Republicans will be elected by the tiny minority of their party that gets to the polls.

The GOP did a lot of damage over their 12 years in power. It seems the Democrats don't mind that as long as their own cash flow is positive.

[tularetom]

6. If everybody at DU pitched in a hundred bucks

We could buy politico.com, fire all the hacks that work there and turn it into something less offensive than what it is.

Or make it a pron site, which would also be less offensive.

[EV_Ares]

7. Even more of a reason to do reconciliation and put thru a health bill

that 47,000,000 plus people need, a bill that progressives and liberals want along with many Dem's. Tell the republicans to fuck themselves along with the media that went along with them on the town halls and now are going along with them regarding his speaking to students.

All this BS going around, what is it going to take to fight back. That is all that the RWers understand. We can do it and I am just hoping they intend to do it in the end.

If they don't sure, we lose and probably lose big in 2010 unless something good happens.

[monmouth]

8. Double-digit losses will be the repugs. Their antics are backfiring

big time, even among the mature and sane of their own. Politico is not a source we should be listening to.

[Doctor_J]

11. What in Good Christ makes you think they're backfiring?

:wtf:

[monmouth]

23. I know a lot of repugs, both in my family and amongst those in my

daily life. They are embarrassed to the hilt. I copied and pasted the following from Crooks & Liars to give you an idea. When Joe Scaraborough scoffs (he's worried about backlash also) you know you have a problem. These antics will not serve repugs well.

Earlier today, ThinkProgress noted that conservatives are freaking out over President Obama’s upcoming speech to schoolchildren about “persisting and succeeding in school,” claiming that it is actually aimed at political indoctrination. On MSNBC’s Morning Joe today, host Joe Scarborough ripped into the hyperventilating conservatives. “Seriously, why don’t we want the president of the United States, any president of the United States, delivering the message to kids: work hard, stay in school, succeed,” said Scarborough, adding, “get your ratings if you want, you’re just screwing your political party.”


The school speech is only a part of it, the media is showing the right-wing fringe at their very worst and people are watching.

[MarjorieG]

9. Unless the public starts believing in Obama stewardship, stops blaming him for Reagan/Bush policies

then voters will blame Dems knee-jerk.

[Doctor_J]

10. Lot of denial in this thread

So now I guess Nate Silver is a GOP hack. If you really believe the town hall terrorists (and our refusal to do anything about them) are not having an effect, you're in for a real shock in 14 months.

[Grinchie]

16. It has nothing to do with the Town Hall Terrorists. It's the DLC bootlicking.

If the current Administration hasn't realized that the American People are sick of paying for Corporate interests, then they are going to be very surprised when the prediction by Politico comes true.

I am way too far left to put up with the same old Government with new branding such as this one has foisted upon us.

I saw Chu, the Energy secretary on the You tube touted how GMO Biofuels are going to save the world.. This, coming from a guy who ran Lawrence Livermore Labs has got to be the most frightening statement ever uttered. It just means that Monsanto and the BIOTECH industry have Obama in their back pocket, and the Appointment of Michael Taylor is just a quiet, stealthy formality.

Yeah, that's right, Michael taylor got all of one day worth of coverage in the media..

Obama and all the DLC crew cango take a short walk off the Democratic platform. I'm done with them, and so is everyone else that is concerned about the continuing Corporate sellout by our elected leaders.

[Doctor_J]

21. If it were just corporate boolicking, the Repukes wouldn't win a landlside

they're bootlickers too. It's hate radio, Cabal News, and their storm troopers.

[Grinchie]

28. Yes, but the Repuglicans are not afraid to admit it.

The DLC will lie outright when it suits them, and then cast the people they fooled under the bus and feast on the Corporate goodies right in front of the neglected, starving progressives that put them there.

[uberblonde]

12. While things don't look good right now...

Remember all the "experts" who insisted Dean's 50-state strategy was crazy and there was no way we could take back the House in 2006?

If enough Democrats are frightened of Obama's dropping poll numbers, we may start to see some voter-friendly policies before the mid-terms.

[emulatorloo]

13. I read earlier today that Dems are winning the special elections. Oh well, whatever POLITICO n/t

[bemildred]

14. Politico is a right-wing propaganda outlet.

They make stuff up, predict the future, and present it as fact. I have a theory that Politico was created because nobody on the internet believes the horseshit on the TV "news" anymore.

[notesdev]

15. I see it too

Looks like the denial brigade managed to unrec this to oblivion... too bad, people need to hear it.

Bottom line: nothing is being done to purge the corruption from government and fraud from the economy, and by 2010 there will be no more blaming of Republicans and Bush. Democrats will own this Great Depression.

Don't like it? Demand real change. Throw the money changers out of the halls of Congress.

[steven johnson]

17. All Politics is Loco

Michael Corleone: "Just when I thought I was out... they pull me back in."

Godfather III

[depakid]

18. Wave goodbye to the blue dogs

:hi:

and Harry Reid

[fasttense]

19. This Politico is run by a banking family who was involved in money laundering.

Do NOT trust anything Politico publishes because they are no unbiased.

[marmar]

20. I'm sure they were quite selective about which "expert" they quoted.....

I call Mierda del Toro.

[quaker bill]

22. Given, given.... given

If one makes a large and nearly indefensible number and quality of assumptions, one can draw a prediction of the next election from existing poll numbers. If the caveats are not huge then the analyst has no integrity.

It is certainly possible that the Dems will lose seats, it is perhaps a bit less possible, but still possible, that the Dems will gain a larger majority.

I will begin to take such predictions seriously next summer.

[Joe Chi Minh]

24. BEWARE THE RIGHT-WING NOISE MACHINE. The closer you come to the

next election, the more dangerous it could become for otherwise honest complaints to be bandied about by Democrats, concerning Obama's conciliatory style with those intrinsically irreconcilable "losers".

In the meantime, I hope that significant progress will be made in cleaning up your third-world elections, particularly the Presidential ones.

[bemildred]

25. The name calling is the dead giveaway.

No refutation of your argument or point of view, just call you the "denial brigade" or whatever. But the point with this story is that they are NOT IN A POSITION TO KNOW what they claim to know, and they have been WRONG REPEATEDLY in the past, about Obama, about election results, etc. They are not trying to inform us, they are trying to tell us what we ought to think.

[Joe Chi Minh]

27. Precisely.

[RedCloud]

26. I am predicting the extinction of the elephant party. So there!

Imagine all those 2010 sounds "bites". "While thousands died from lack of health care Senator so and so just said no and offered no plan..." Even though the majority from so and so's district wanted health care, so and so thought about seceding from the USA/ wasted time on Obama's birth certificate...was afraid to hold a town hall open to the public...had no better plan for the economic recovery... etc...

[Mr. Sparkle]

29. If a strong health care bill passes and Democrats lean how to milk things.

I would predict the opposite, and dare i say it , a small gain.

[Fearless]

30. There's only one reason why this may happen... no public health care.

Idiots.

[tomm2thumbs]

31. 'EXPERTS' didn't even see Barack Obama coming - they can't see their toes in a steam bath

Please picture this scenario with everyone toweled. It helps.

[Butch350]

32. Experts see double-digit Dem losses

Why in the F**k didn't see Bush and Dick in their future?

[wisteria]

33. It is to early for this poll nonsense. I suggest you support our President and encourage others to

do so too. We will prevail.

[BR_Parkway]

34. Since the Repubs never supported them, guess who they're losing?

the progressives and even independents who are sick of the corporate whores they've become.

If they can't truly represent us, they need to be replaced. We're sick of the "business as usual" from Washington - apparently they didn't think we were serious during the elections.