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Look at the facts that we are dealing with:
* There is a very big and very solid core group of members in the House (way more than enough to block a bill from passing) who have pledged multiple times in writing to only vote for a bill with a public option.
* That group in the House is backed up by an extremely determined activist core from the netroots, and increasingly intense organizations like the AFL-CIO, MoveOn.org, and Democracy for America.
* A majority of House members are on the record in favor of the public option.
* While there are procedural issues to be resolved in the Senate, many of the top experts on Senate rules are saying that the public option can be included in a reconciliation bill which only needs 51 votes. Such a bill could be combined with a second bill to deal with the less controversial issues that can't be included in reconciliation.
* While some of the most conservative Senate Democrats want there to be a bipartisan bill, which would require no public option, there are not enough of them to stop a bill being passed on reconciliation. In fact, there are now 51 Senators on the record in favor of the public option.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/mike-lux/the-simplest-thing_b_278072.html