Afghanistan starting to look like Obama's Vietnam

[denem]

Source: SMH (Australia)

.... (September 30, 2009)

The facts on the ground are grim - the resurgence of the Taliban, the corruption of the Karzai Government, the illegitimacy of its election victory, the spectre of a resurgent al-Qaeda on the border with unstable and nuclear armed Pakistan.

The US, and its allies, must soon face an invidious choice regarding Afghanistan. At one extreme is a de facto withdrawal, dramatically scaling back military operations there, knowing this would allow the civil war between the corrupt Karzai Government and the resurgent Taliban to fester, giving al-Qaeda free rein to use the border regions with Pakistan as a springboard for its global terrorist aspirations.

No one will talk explicitly about withdrawal in polite company. But it is what America's continental European allies are doing. Canada will most likely soon join this camp. So, too, may Britain.

The US Vice-President, Joe Biden, has come closest to withdrawal, suggesting the US should scale back its troop commitments and focus fewer troops on minimising the al-Qaeda terrorist threat along the Pakistan border.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/afghanistan-starting-to-look-like-obamas-vietnam-20090929-gb0b.html

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The news here is that America's allies are canvassing withdrawal, six months after committing additional forces. Obama and Gates may betting on a review in six months time, but to quote the author "...the Afghanistan drift cannot go on indefinitely. History tells us that putting off hard decisions rarely works. The time to face them in Afghanistan may well be now."

[pimpbot]

1. and let the taliban and al qaeda regroup?

Its not a good situation at all. Stay and fight an enemy that is holed up in caves (kinda like Vietnam), or leave and let them regroup and plan/train for new attacks.

The difference between this and Vietnam is, the people involved weren't hell bent on blowing things up in the USA or Europe. We withdrew from Vietnam and the local people got on with their lives...

[kestrel91316]

2. Al Quaeda has moved on to greener pastures, like Somalia and Sudan.

[denem]

3. 1. The Taliban have regrouped and control about 20% of the country.

It is becoming a civil and ethnic war as it was before. As much as I detest the Taliban, it is not monolithic. Al qaeda camps and command centers are easier to target, cat or mouse, than a mass movement intent once again on ending the appalling abuses of the 'central government'

[FiveGoodMen]

4. I guess we should be at war with every country that might have terrorists living there

...
...

You don't suppose we've got any ... ... HERE... do you?!

Maybe we should attack ourselves just to be safe.

[PATRICK]

6. Truly an epic mess

It is most comparable I suppose- as hopeless Afghan wars throughout history go- to the Soviet's dilemma. They had a growing frustration that led almost to a self-fulfilling fear that radical extremism would spread to the Islamic territories inside the Soviet Union. They have that(Chechnya) AND the total breakup of their empire as well. Knowing that, would they go back in history and NOT pull out of Afghanistan?

The things to be done differently may have little or even nothing to do with finagling military options or "Afghanization" of surrogates fighting for OUR interests. On top of that however is the political conundrum the administration is in by NOT dealing with our enemies within who will 1) destroy Obama no matter what option he chooses over this 2) destroy our nation just as catastrophically as the old Soviet Union. Those enemies as during the sixties are the entrenched military/industrial simpletons who really don't care about the military goals or results- only that you keep paying and playing their succession of failed plans, the GOP who can switch from dove to hawk under the same bloodied flag because hypocrisy is their greatest product. Getting into any simple mindset under that sullied banner, as LBJ did out of fear and military pride and political/strategic miscalculation means condemning many people(and this "great" democracy) to wasteful death. "Great" leaders see this as the heroic thing to do, but it actually is easy and follows the lemming momentum repeated throughout history by all "great" military expansionists.

The British could get out and no harm down except to their pride and aura of entitled empire. In fact, like strong willed smokers they quit more than once and can do so again. Obama's biggest threat is on the home front, NOT Al Qaeda. The pressure and pursuit of the terrorist threat can continue within the region by dealing with the majority forces deciding their own destiny. The majority, it is recognized, are not terrorists or enemies anywhere, which includes Iran. Whatever we can do short of invading those nations, creating a mess and leaving again, offers more hope than any satisfying glorious bloodletting and temporary show of force can. Such efforts are less likely to stop, because they could be a lot cheaper and enlist the cooperation of the majority.

I believe that the main hypocrisy is thinking there is really any will to solve the righteous problems of other peoples. Would anyone do the drudging peace process work and forgo the mighty political thrust of a war? So we must do the wrong thing for reasons that cannot be served by war- and reap the political winds for profit or humiliation?

This is not to say that smaller less entangling operations to save people worldwide cannot or should not be considered. In fact, getting involved in impossible geographical or historical boondoggles with finite(though "great") resources renders any such arguably humane ventures even less possible economically or psychologically.

The problem at hand. Purge the political military set up by Bush who never gave a damn about terrorism or military effectiveness. Start with those leaking- but not resigning- the usual behavior or RW trolls who would shoot their own mother and expect to get away with it. Hammer the news media economically where it really hurts with anti-trust and fairness doctrine proposals. Give MORE not fewer fireside chats since those a$$holes are currently squatting on the public airwaves. Begin pulling out and working on ways to target ONLY Al Qaeda operations. Let NATO vote and take some actual responsibility as opposed to the one by one bug out as each team runs a jeep over a land mine.

The threat is any country(aided and abetted by the Cheney gang) possessing nukes. I think Obama and the UN Security Council might be moving to target that singularly small but potent obstacle to world stability without which(contrary to Big MAD) assures the eventual chaos of nuclear conflicts globally.

"Find" Bin Laden. Parade the urn of ashes and declare victory. Shut down the Al Qaeda tape operation which might be easy if it anyways an American production. Hand over government to Kabul, write treaties and get mostly out. To give credence to the political fear of being "weak" after the dissipation of mindless birther and death panel lies that DO THE SAME THING is to waste lives for nothing. The people will back the people's will when they see it in a leader. To play other games and spread the Bush misery out of some idiotic myth or impossible principle is to do the opposite of ALL good intent- on the people's- elitist paved- highway to hell

[elocs]

7. Yes, I'm sure we will succeed in Afghanistan, a country twice the size of Vietnam

with just 100,000 troops when we failed with 500,000 in Vietnam. Yes, I'm not sure how I missed how obvious our eventual success in Afghanistan will be in spite of the civilian deaths and our propping up a regime which seems to have stolen an election.

This is all but a done deal. For sure. Without a doubt. Of course it might have to be our grandchildren's grandchildren who realize that success.

Maybe we could just save the lives, expense, and time and simply declare success now and leave? How badly do the Afghanis really want their own country? Do they want it more than the Taliban?

The bottom line is that in a democracy when the majority of the people decide a war is over, it will be over.

[Vattel]

5. One big difference between Vietnam and Afghanistan

is that in Vietnam the insurgency enjoyed wide support. The vast majority of Afghans hate the Taliban. This is not to say that we shouldn't withdraw our troops. The choices suck, but there may well be better uses of the resources that will be expended on Afghanistan should we stay. I've seen figures like 2 billion per month currently, and going up to 3 billion per month if we escalate in the way that some in the military want. All for something that might well fail anyway.