Obama's Surge and Pakistan
Shibil Siddiqi | December 10, 2009
Editor: John Feffer
Foreign Policy In Focus
President Barack Obama recently announced an escalation of the war in Afghanistan, outlining plans to send an additional 30,000 troops. In search of an "end game," he also declared that the U.S. occupation of Afghanistan would end in the summer of 2011, though the administration has since stated this will be a long and slowly phased withdrawal. The additional troops — even had they been the 40,000 originally requested by General Stanley McChrystal, the top American commander in Afghanistan — will be unable to score a military victory. Washington realizes that military force is not enough, particularly in the face of the loss of public support in the United States and the recent failure of democratic elections in Afghanistan. The end game will require a political settlement.
The Taliban know this too, and the two are locked in a macabre "diplomatic" dance. The Taliban have ramped up their attacks on NATO forces and carried out spectacular attacks on "soft" targets, such as a UN guest house. At the same time, they have blown hot and cold about negotiating terms provided the U.S. occupation of Afghanistan ends. A potential date for the U.S. withdrawal will perhaps lead to further talks. And it seems that back-channel contacts, including with Afghan Taliban Chief Mullah Omar, are already underway.
America has been searching largely in vain for what it calls "reconcilable" elements of the Taliban — that is, those that are willing to shed an ideological affinity to al-Qaeda. It plans to co-opt them into the Afghan government or otherwise work out power-sharing deals. The problem it faces is insufficient intelligence and contacts with regard to the Taliban. Pakistan is the only country in the world that has meticulously cultivated both. More specifically, the Pakistani army and its powerful intelligence agencies hold the keys to unlock the Afghan conflict. The army has offered to share this information and to actively mediate between the United States and the Taliban — for a price.
http://www.fpif.org/fpiftxt/6626
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