Robert Reich: What Scott Brown's Victory Really Means

[tonysam]

From the right: Just goes to show the country is against Democratic tax-and-spend. Obama’s agenda is in ruins, heath-care is over, the GOP has a good chance of taking back Congress next November. Now, even congessional Democrats will move to the right.

From the left: Just goes to show Obama should never have cozied up to Wall Street, Big Pharma, and Big Insurance. He compromised too much. The Democratic base lost faith in him. The only answer is for Obama and congressional Dems to turn left.

Don’t believe any of it. Here’s what’s really going on. In Massachusetts, in New Jersey, all over the nation, voters are petrified of losing their jobs, their homes, and what’s left of their savings. Nothing counts more than the economy. Rightly or wrongly, presidents and the party in power are blamed when the economy is lousy. Voters fired Jimmy Carter in 1980 because the economy went south. They fired George Bush the first in 1992 because the economy was awful. They fired congressional Democrats in 1994 because the economy was still awful. And they’re in the process of firing Obama and the Democrats — unless or until the economy turns around.

What happens next November depends both on the extent of joblessness and the direction the economy is moving in. The usual political rule is voters pay more attention to the latter. They’ll forgive even relatively high unemployment if they’re confident the economy is improving. But that old rule hasn’t been tested under conditions of extremely high unemployment. If next November one in five Americans is still unemployed or underemployed or working at lower pay than before the Great Recession, voters may not care that the economy is showing signs of improvement. They’ll vote the rascals out.

More


It's the economy, especially jobs, stupid. Always has been, always will be.

[glinda]

1. Nonsensical. So voters will put back in charge those who dug the deepest hole???

[Grand Taurean]

3. They did last night.

[depakid]

8. Dr. Westen describes the reasons for that quite clearlty

What happens if you refuse to lay the blame for the destruction of our economy on anyone--particularly the party, leaders, and ideology that were in power for the last 8 years and were responsible for it? What happens if you fail to "brand" what has happened as the Bush Depression or the Republican Depression or the natural result of the ideology of unregulated greed, the way FDR branded the Great Depression as Hoover's Depression and created a Democratic majority for 50 years and a new vision of what effective government can do? What happens when you fail to offer and continually reinforce a narrative about what has happened, who caused it, and how you're going to fix it that Americans understand, that makes them angry, that makes them hopeful, and that makes them committed to you and your policies during the tough times that will inevitably lie ahead?

The answer was obvious a year ago, and it is even more obvious today: Voters will come to blame you for not having solved a problem you didn't create, and you will allow the other side to create an alternative narrative for what's happened (government spending, deficits, big government, socialism) that will stick. And it will particularly stick if you make no efforts to prevent it from starting or sticking.

More: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/drew-westen/obama-finally-gets-his-vi_b_429232.html

[Grand Taurean]

9. True.

Reagan never took a chance to blame liberalism for everything that was wrong at the time.
Obama does NOT have that fighting spirit in him to kick ass, take names, and lay the blame at the feet of his right wing opponents.

[clear eye]

10. Excellent analysis.

If the President's closest advisors were as loyal to him as they are to mega-corporate money they would have advised him of that. He's getting played.

edited to add: bookmarked

[glinda]

16. I worried about this since he was nominated actually. We need loud strong voices.

[tonysam]

4. What else could it be but the economy?

The Democrats aren't doing much in the way of fixing it, and it is the ONLY issue that counts--NOT health care "reform," which was NEVER going to pass anyway.

[Recursion]

5. The Poles voted the Communists back in NT

[silverweb]

6. Unfortunately, yes.

Because (1) voters have a very, very short memory span; (2) voters assimilate and tend to believe what the MSM feeds them, rightly or wrongly: and (3) voters are, in the end, really only concerned about what affects their personal physical and economic security.

[regnaD kciN]

7. Yep...and when they can't/won't fix things quickly enough, they'll throw them out, too!

Seriously, if the economy doesn't improve at all (in other words, if this is a systemic "correction" and what we have now the long-term status quo), I can see Congress and/or the White House changing hands practically every election (even if it means replacing the party that couldn't fix things with the party that messed things up in the first place), at least until the electorate decides things won't get any worse.

[wuvuj]

12. Figured it out eh?

[hay rick]

18. Harsh truth.

The Dems will be blamed for not fixing in 2 years the destruction visited by Bush and the Republicans in 8 years. The media will highlight the current misery while avoiding meaningful discussion of the foolishness that brought us to this pass.

As long as voters are content to let somebody else (the corporate media) frame the debate, we are doomed to watch a repeat performance as the hole gets deeper.

[Grand Taurean]

2. Reich is correct about this.

Obama better do something about the banks, SOON!
The too big to fail banks are going to sink this country.

[elocs]

11. Yeah, who would've thunk the American people would be pissed about giving hundreds of billion$

to Wall Street and big banks when so many regular people are struggling? Anyone who didn't see that anger coming is as stupid as the day is long and then trying to explain it away to the American people like they are children that it was simply done for their own good.

The anger ain't over yet and yesterday is likely to be a foreshadowing of November. It'll be a long time before the Democrats can ever again enjoy the majorities that they had last year and who knows how long they will hold the majority at all. Just be thankful that Obama can veto, that is unless he is sucking up to the Republicans too much in the name of bipartisanship (Republican translation: date rape).

[depakid]

13. Especially when a new administration comes in and refuses to hold most of the villians accountable

[wisteria]

14. Yes, it is the economy, but the Health Care bill was to take a part in helping the economy.

I wouldn't be surprised if some heads roll and some fresh faces appear to deal with the economy.

[tonysam]

19. Health care was a loser from the get-go

Obama and Congress from Day One should have put in a job creation bill.

I can't begin to emphasize how badly they have misstepped.

[WestSeattle2]

15. Wall Street thieves and liars run the Treasury and Fed...

hello?! All those assholes should be in prison, instead they continue to receive billions in "off the record" subsidies. Screw any politician, of any party, who supports that crap. The revolving door between Wall Street and Washington needs to be closed permanently.

It is about jobs for working Americans, economic security for Main Street, and holding those responsible for this disaster, accountable. If the current party in power can't or won't get it done, they will be replaced.

[katty]

17. K&R

[emsimon33]

20. Not for me and most others I know

It's that we don't trust Obama to make the changes he promised. He don't appreciate his demonizing us and cuddling up with the far right and corporations and Wall Street.

[Gman2]

21. It's also increasingly the demographics stupid. Stupid being the rethug hate, for all

poor, immigrants, minorities, ill, liberal, female, gay etc,


If you think these groups will trend towards rethugs, I am no so sure. They will increasingly get the hate message. We need to empower all these groups.

[blue97keet]

22. Both parties are infected with corporatism so the voters keep

switching because there is no way to throw all of 'em out.

[NICO9000]

23. I don't think any of these pols give a rat's ass about jobs

That goes for all the R's and the majority of the D's. I can't understand why they want a majority of their constituents in poverty, but it sure seems like that's the way we're headed.

I used to think that "taking it to the streets" was the way to go, but I don't think that A): the majority of the population could actually get on board for this; and B): the state has way too much firepower and "good Germans" who wouldn't have a lot of problems "keeping the peace."