Can't tell you the name of the fellow who sent me the following analysis but it's an interesting premise to ponder: The way this person has it figured, the market is down because of the Scott Brown victory in Massachusetts this week:
"A lesson in compounding
Whether you've swallowed the US Chamber of Commerce flavor-aide without thinking (government takeover, when the truth is about a million miles away), or you've studied the House and Senate versions of health insurance reform in depth, it seems that the stock market "gets it" what defeat of the reform effort will really do.
What it does is let the medical insurance billing machine stay on its current path. For those of us with private coverage, that means we will continue to experience the after-inflation double-digit annual cost increases (literal for those who keep the same benefits year over year, or adjusted for increase co-pays, etc) and for government programs, the increase in cost will sit, after inflation, in the mid single-digit range.
Let's put that in perspective:
60% of our medical costs flow through the private insurance system, and 40% through government programs. At 17% of GDP, that means the after inflation tax increase imposed on our economy will stay on the current trajectory. That works out to
17%*60%*10% + 17%*40%*5% as an annual real growth rate, expressed as a percentage of inflation-adjusted GDP. That's an after-inflation contribution to our national overhead of 1.054% in 2010. Assuming all income taxes will equal 8% of GDP in 2010 (a stretch if we don't have serious growth), it's as if the obstructionists just put on a 13% across-the-board increase in income taxes for this year. Next year, assuming 2011 stated personal income tax collection is flat to 2010 after inflation, the tax increase is 1.56% of GDP, or nearly 20% of the size of the income tax collection, working out to an aggregate increase of one third in just the first two years.
Left to compound merrily along, this equation doubles our national tax load in less than five years.
Nice work, dirtbags. Too bad you thought getting back in power was more important than your country and its economy.
http://urbansurvival.com/week.htm