Huffington Post Analysis: Obama will pick a Justice like Stevens

[garthranzz]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/04/10/obama-emboldened-for-anot_n_533017.html

Here's the start, but it's worth reading all the way through.

WASHINGTON — Emboldened by success the first time around, President Barack Obama is likely to pick the Supreme Court nominee he wants and let the confirmation fight proceed from there, putting huge emphasis on a justice who would bring a fight-for-the-little-guy sensibility to the job.

Politics will certainly play into Obama's calculus: He no longer has the votes in the Senate to overcome the delaying tactic known as the filibuster, and a minority Republican Party in fierce opposition to Obama's agenda has little incentive to hand him a win just months before House and Senate elections.

But Obama's strategy worked when he chose Sonia Sotomayor to replace Justice David Souter last year – announce the criteria he deems the most vital for a nominee, vet the nominees with no embarrassing gaffes or leaks, and pick the one with whom he feels the most comfort.

Confirmability was a factor then, not a driver. Expect much the same now.

[mr_liberal]

1. I thnk politics was the driver last time

I think he chose Sotomayor to a large degree because she is latino to get Latino votes in 2012. She is not the most liberal judge, and she is not someone youd expect to be a leader. she seems more like a follower.

So this time he'll want someone that can be a leader to take on Scalia and help to create a liberal block, which is why i think most people are thinking its going to be Kagan. I have severe reservations about her views on the fist amendment but i need to hear more abotu it.

he may get a third pick too. So thats something he could take into consideration too. If he still wants to put a black judge (Deval Patrick?) on the court to counterweight Thomas he'd still have a chance to do that because I think Ginsburg probably will retire if she thinks he cant get reelected.

[Ozymanithrax]

2. Obama can not pick a man like Stevens...They don't make Republicans like him any more n/t