It's Worse Than You Think

[Joanne98]

Sun May 02, 2010 at 06:00:02 AM PDT
It's easy to be pro-drilling. All it requires is a little chanting, a little pretending that somehow this activity can reverse a yawning oil deficit that's been growing since 1970, a little chest-thumping conceit that there's something patriotic or admirable about risking other people's homes, livelihoods, and lives because it pisses off the "tree huggers." All it takes is a little ignorance and a belief that any risk is worth a dime at the pumps. All it takes at turning a blind eye to the real level of danger involved.

Which is going to get a lot harder after this week.

When Deepwater Horizon exploded on April 20, attention was first focused, and quite rightly, on the 11 workers missing, all of whom are now presumed to have died either directly in the massive fireball that engulfed the ship or somewhere in the choppy oil-stained waters. The well they had been working on -- which was in the process of being "capped" with concrete when the explosion occurred -- wasn't considered a high risk for leakage. The smear of oil on the ocean's surface after the explosion was thought to be mostly from the fuel that had been carried by the drilling ship.

Rear Adm. Landry said no oil appeared to be leaking from a well head at the ocean floor, nor was any leaking at the water's surface. But she said crews were closely monitoring the rig for any more crude that might spill out.,

About half a dozen boats were using booms to trap the thin sheen, which extended about seven miles north of the rig site. There was no sign of wildlife being affected; the Louisiana coast is about 50 miles away.

As the search for those missing workers was sadly ended, the slick around the former drill site continued to grow. It was soon clear that the initial hopes that the sinking of the drilling ship and collapse of the well structures would not lead to a prolonged leak were unfounded. What started out as a small slick directly around the drill site enlarged rapidly.

"We thought what we were dealing with as of yesterday was a surface residual (oil) from the mobile offshore drilling unit," Landry said. "In addition to that is oil emanating from the well. It is a big change from yesterday ... This is a very serious spill, absolutely."

A robotic camera has determined a pipe leading from the well is leaking oil at an estimated rate of 1,000 barrels — or about 42,000 gallons a day, reports CBS News correspondent Don Teague. That's still much less than the worst-case scenario.

By comparison, Exxon Valdez spilled 11 million gallons in Alaska's Prince William Sound in 1989 — the worst oil spill in U.S. history.

That rate was certainly bad enough. The press dutifully reported this number (myself included). But within two days there was evidence that the 1,000 barrels a day didn't match up with the the actual size of the leak.

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2010/5/2/862592/-Its-Worse-Than-You-Think

[dgibby]

1. And the hits just keep on coming.

Looks like there's a very good possibility that the slick could be picked up by the Gulf Stream and end up contaminating the entire Atlantic Coast before it's over (IF it ever is over). What a fluster cluck!

[flyarm]

2. Leaked report: Government fears Deepwater Horizon well could become unchecked gusher

see my thread here:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=edit&forum=389&topic_id=8257501&mesg_id=8257617


Leaked report: Government fears Deepwater Horizon well could become unchecked gusher

By Ben Raines
April 30, 2010, 2:18PM

http://blog.al.com/live/2010/04/deepwater_horizon_secre...


'The following is not public' document states

View full size(AP Photo/U.S. Coast Guard)This image provided by the U.S. Coast Guard Saturday April 24, 2010, shows oil leaking from the drill pipe of the Deepwater Horizon drilling rig after it sank. A confidential government report on the unfolding spill disaster makes clear the Coast Guard now fears the well could be on the verge of becoming an unchecked gusher shooting millions of gallons of oil per day into the Gulf. A confidential government report on the unfolding spill disaster in the Gulf makes clear the Coast Guard now fears the well could become an unchecked gusher shooting millions of gallons of oil per day into the Gulf.

"The following is not public," reads the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Emergency Response document dated April 28. "Two additional release points were found today in the tangled riser. If the riser pipe deteriorates further, the flow could become unchecked resulting in a release volume an order of magnitude higher than previously thought."

Asked Friday to comment on the document, NOAA spokesman Scott Smullen said that the additional leaks described were reported to the public late Wednesday night. Regarding the possibility of the spill becoming an order of magnitude larger, Smullen said, "I'm letting the document you have speak for itself."

In scientific circles, an order of magnitude means something is 10 times larger. In this case, an order of magnitude higher would mean the volume of oil coming from the well could be 10 times higher than the 5,000 barrels a day coming out now. That would mean 50,000 barrels a day, or 2.1 million gallons a day. It appears the new leaks mentioned in the Wednesday release are the leaks reported to the public late Wednesday night.

"There is no official change in the volume released but the USCG is no longer stating that the release rate is 1,000 barrels a day," continues the document, referred to as report No. 12. "Instead they are saying that they are preparing for a worst-case release and bringing all assets to bear."

The emergency document also states that the spill has grown in size so quickly that only 1 to 2 percent of it has been sprayed with dispersants.

The Press-Register obtained the emergency report from a government official. The White House, NOAA, the Coast Guard and BP Plc did not immediately return calls for comment made early this morning.

The worst-case scenario for the broken and leaking well pouring oil into the Gulf of Mexico would be the loss of the wellhead and kinked piping currently restricting the flow to 5,000 barrels -- or 210,000 gallons -- per day.




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http://blog.al.com/live/2010/05/video_shows_federal_off...

A National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration video, shot as officials coordinated response to the Deepwater Horizon disaster, shows that federal officials almost immediately worried that the oil well could leak up to 110,000 barrels per day, or 4.6 million gallons.

The video appears on a federal Web site.

It was filmed in Seattle, at NOAA's Western Regional Center, as scientists and federal officials in Seattle, Houston and New Orleans engaged in telephone conferences, according to a companion document on the Web site.

snip:

A confidential NOAA report, dated April 28 and circulated among federal agencies, makes similar projections regarding spill size in a worst-case situation.

View full size(NOAA video still)A hand-drawn map of the Gulf of Mexico oil spill dated April 22, 2010, is seen in this image from a video downloaded from the NOAA Web site. The video shows federal officials discussing the oil spill soon after the Deepwater Horizon exploded.

It describes newly discovered leaks in the tangle of riser pipe, attributing them to ongoing erosion of the pipe. The riser pipe, in this case about 5,000 feet long, connects the wellhead on the sea floor to the drilling rig on the surface.

"If the riser pipe deteriorates further, the flow could become unchecked," reads the report.

On Thursday, the day after the NOAA report was circulated, BP officials said they were worried about "erosion" of the piping.

Sand is an integral part of the formations that hold oil under the Gulf. The raw crude rising from the bottom of a well carries sand and other abrasive materials. In effect, the oil is sandblasting the piping as it rushes through with tremendous force, according to petroleum engineers.

"I think we need to be prepared for it to be the spill of the decade," Debbie Payton of NOAA, the meeting's coordinator, says during the NOAA video.

[jimlup]

3. Regret that I have but one rec to give to your post

Thanks

[OnyxCollie]

4. Halliburton net income falls by 48%

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/haliburton-co-net-income-falls-by-48-2010-01-25?reflink=MW_news_stmp

Looking ahead, Halliburton said operators have announced potential increases in spending for 2010 on new developments and ultra-deepwater projects, where the company remains "well positioned."