TAKING STOCK - (Made Up Jobs Numbers Out Tomorrow)

[mhr]

TAKING STOCK -- JOBS NUMBER LIKELY TO SEND RATES UP, STOCKS DOWN
By JOHN CRUDELE
New York Post
June 3, 2004

The government will probably pump a very hefty dose of imaginary jobs into tomorrow's Labor report and the result could be unsettling for the financial markets.

Wall Street is anticipating healthy growth of around 250,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate staying at 5.6 percent.

Included in whatever figure is released tomorrow will be jobs that the government actually counts through its employer surveys, adjustments for the seasons, and jobs that the Labor Department thinks are being created by new companies it hasn't yet reached in its polls.

The big surprise could come in that last category — invisible new companies. The Labor Department calls this calculation its CES Net Birth/Death Model. (http://www.bls.gov/web/cesbd.htm )

The effect of this estimate can be big.

Snip ......

http://www.nypost.com/business/22197.htm

[whistle]

1. So the BLS people are making estimates based on estimates...

...which they disclaim, because they know that hardly anyone reads those disclaimers. Look what else the NY Post article points out:

"When the government announced that 288,000 jobs were created this past April, for instance, that figure included a whopping 270,000 jobs that the Labor Department estimated — but couldn't prove — had been created by new companies.

Without those estimated jobs from new businesses, growth would have been minuscule and more in line with the mood that workers are expressing in private surveys.

If 2003 is any indicator — and it should be the way the government uses these numbers — the Labor Department will likely raise the number of estimated jobs it believes were created by newly-born companies during May."

Out of the 288,000 jobs that BLS was giving the economy for generating, 93.75% were completely made up from their projection model, which the BLS says is "problematic". Well, it's not a problem for me. I just deduct the made-up jobs and give the economy credit for creating just 18,000 jobs in April. Based on the real data, I can say with confidence that May will bring about 15,625 new jobs. Well Mr Bush, the economy may be growing, but it just isn't growing at the pace you and other GOPissers have been claiming and trying to convince the country of. Lies and the lying liars who tell them!:wtf:

This is my 1,000 post here on DU and I could not have asked for a better thread to make a statement. Thanks MHR.

[mhr]

2. Happy 1000th Post And Thanks for Taking The Time To Read The Link

All the best,

MHR