If I were a conspiracy theorist, I would say that Osama bin Laden was a Chinese agent. And maybe America's banks, credit card companies, advertising agencies and government have been secretly working for China too. For while the United States has spent more than $1 trillion on foreign wars since the 9/11 attacks, and piled up a Mount Everest of debt at home, China has spent the last decade quietly growing, saving, investing and rising. If the winner of the war in Iraq was Iran, the winner of America's decade-long struggle against violent Islamism may be China.
The good news is that America is waking up to its predicament. President Obama talks of the need for nation-building at home. Richard Haass, head of the Council on Foreign Relations and once a member of the Bush administration, reflects on "a decade of strategic distraction". A veteran Republican observes that the US is building more infrastructure in Afghanistan than in America. (The road surface of the interstate highways seems to get worse every year I come back.) Every second newspaper column now points up the contrast between China's high-speed intercity rail links and America's lack of them. Former national security adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski calls for a programme of "national renewal". Everyone acknowledges that performance in the lower half of America's school system is dismal.
And that's before we even mention the alarmingly sluggish recovery of the economy, the loss of jobs, the scale of the soaring deficits. Looking at the Congressional budget office's projections, Republican Senator John Ensign says that if they don't do something about it, "this country is going to become Greece, except we don't have the European Union to bail us out". One of the country's most senior military figures was asked, not so long ago, what he considered to be the greatest single national security threat to the US. His answer: our national debt.
This does not mean that the danger from Islamist terrorists, or a nuclear-threshold Iran sparking a nuclear arms race in the Middle East, or the festering sore of the unresolved Israeli-Palestinian conflict, are not real or important. They are. But if you ask what will be the biggest geopolitical story of the 2010s, my best guess is "rising China and struggling America". Where that competition has got to by 2020 will depend crucially on America's ability to put its house in order. Physician, heal thyself.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/cifamerica/2010/sep/29/american-politics-gridlocked-competition-china