Avoid the Double Dip (Nouriel Roubini)

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http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/10/11/avoid_the_double_dip?page=0,1

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Obama will face an increasingly partisan and divided Washington over the next two years, but he can take steps to reduce the odds that this dark double-dip scenario comes to pass. This will, of course, require deft politics. To that end, the administration should focus on policies that create a revenue-neutral fiscal stimulus -- one that targets both labor demand and consumption.

Start with the one thing that everyone loves to hate: taxes. Forget the political hot potato over the size and shape of the cuts -- there's an easy way to do this. For the next two years, Obama should reduce payroll taxes for both employers and employees. The reduction for employers will lower labor costs and allow the hiring of more workers; for employees, increased take-home pay will get people spending again. It's not just about increasing foot traffic in the mall; households need to pay down the burden of credit cards, second mortgages, and other legacies of the years of easy credit.

But this tax cut can't bust the budget. How can it be funded? By allowing George W. Bush's tax cuts for people making more than $250,000 to expire while keeping in place those for middle- and low-income earners -- the vast majority of Americans. And whatever trickle-down Republicans in Congress say, Obama will have to remain firm on this.

After two years, when U.S. growth is hopefully more robust and the pace of private-sector hiring has picked up steam, Obama can afford to phase out the payroll tax cuts. But the income-tax increases for the rich? They'll need to stick around. To woo key middle-of-the-road Democrats and moderate Republicans and to maximize the incentives for private-sector hiring, the president should make sharper reductions to payroll taxes paid by employers than to those paid by employees. This makes mincemeat of the argument that high-income individuals invariably resort to -- that higher income taxes will hurt small businesses and curtail hiring. By incentivizing both consumer spending and hiring, this plan goes far beyond the modest tax credits for business investment proposed in September.

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