Would Prop.19 curtail Mexican drug violence?

[pscot]

http://www.cannabisculture.com/v2/content/2010/10/26/Prop-19-Would-Help-Defuse-Mexicos-Drug-War

Passage of California's Proposition 19, which aims to legalize recreational marijuana, could help ease the spiralling violence of Mexico's drug war.

......

Besides offering the cash-strapped state a new source of revenue and jobs, Proposition 19 would also help pave the way for a much-needed drug policy shift south of the border.

In Mexico, turf battles between warring cartels and local authorities have turned wholesale massacres and brazen daytime shootouts into a daily occurrence.

The social and economic costs for California's southern neighbour are staggering. Violence has claimed more than 28,000 lives since Mexican President Felipe Calderón took office in 2006. And his government has spent more than $10 billion in fighting the cartels -- $1.4 billion of it from U.S. taxpayers. But to no avail.

Approval of Proposition 19 in California would help give Mexico the breathing room it needs for a fundamental course correction.

[sharp_stick]

1. No

they'd just pick up the pace of trafficking in cocaine, meth and the rest of it. Those psychopathic assholes don't care, as long as it makes them some money.

[Life Long Dem]

2. 60 percent of the drugs coming from Mexico is pot.

[DFab420]

3. Yes, yes it will

If you follow donations to the Anti-Prop 19 funding it comes from cleaned drug money and alcohol producers..

They might increase shipment of other drugs, but pot is their bread and butter. Take that from them and they will certainly have a few monetary issues.

[droidamus2]

4. Will it have an immediate effect?

Probably not. If it is the beginning of pot being legalized nationwide yes it will eventually effect the cartels ability to make money. The demand for coke and meth is nowhere near the demand for marijuana and therefore just pushing more coke and meth onto the market is not going to make up for the loss of the massive pot market (and would lower the price of the coke and meth that is sold). Actually when I lived in California Mexican weed was thought of as low-grade and most if not all of us smoked locally grown products so the effect of California legalizing probably won't have a huge effect on the cartels but as a precursor to national legalization it will be a good first step.

[Bobbieo]

5. Yes, it would!!!

The U.S. Office of National Drug Control Policy … says that more than 60 percent of the profits reaped by Mexican drug lords are derived from the exportation and sale of cannabis to the American market. … (By comparison, only about 28 percent of their profits are derived from the distribution of cocaine, and less than 1 percent comes from trafficking methamphetamine.) …

Government officials estimate that approximately half the marijuana consumed in the United States originates from outside its borders, and they have identified Mexico as far and away America’s largest pot provider.

[spin]

6. Perhaps it's too late ...

Organized crime grew exponentially during Prohibition. When Prohibition was repealed, organized crime didn't disappear. It adapted.

As mentioned earlier, organized crime was a direct result of prohibition. Toward the end of prohibition the gangsters realized they would soon be without a market. In 1931 what is now known as the Mafia cam into existence. 'About the time prohibition ended, a national 'Commission' was formed to coordinate gangland operations throughout the country, to arbitrate disputes between gangs, and at times to step in and set right a badly run local organization or to appoint a local leader' (Barry 79).

***snip***

The era of prohibition led to a situation in which organized crime was used to obtain the outlawed product. Organized crime grew and thrived during this time and has had a lasting effect on illicit substance distribution. There were no lasting positive effects of prohibition. However there were many disadvantages to this experiment, such as poisoned products, crime rings, and corruption of most any one involved. Thornton sums it up best, 'No measurable gains were made in productivity or reduced absenteeism. Prohibition removed a significant source of tax revenue and greatly increased government spending' (1). Prohibition was a failure. Nearly the same things occur today with the modern drug war and organized crime.
http://everything2.com/title/Effect+of+Prohibition+on+organized+crime

Still I favor legalizing recreational marijuana which we should have done 40 years ago.

(Note: I remember discussing the legalization of marijuana back in 1969 with co-workers. Rather than looking at the lessons history teaches, our country launched another stupid prohibition campaign called the "War on Drugs".)

[nadinbrzezinski]

7. No, but we need to make it legal anyway

The cartels diversified a while ago

[damntexdem]

8. It might ease it a little by taking some money out of the cartel money flow, but ...

just as in the U.S. after Prohibition, once criminal enterprises have been fully established on well-funded bases, they don't just go away when their funding bases are done away with -- rather they find new ways to make money through criminal activity. In fact, they don't wait to have their funded bases destroyed but tend to branch out before -- as have drug criminals in Mexico to kidnapping and extortion.

[Uben]

9. It will not affect the violence...........

...because marijuana is but one thing they can make money on. If that venture dries up, they will just switch to the others that provide just as good of an income. The rival druglords will always escalate violence because that is the nature of the business they are in.....greed. They always want more. That's why they eventually get caught....or killed.

[bemildred]

10. Won't make it worse, not likely to make it much better.

The thing I like about Prop. 19 is it will reduce or eliminate the prevalence of grows on public land (national parks and forests and monuments and BLM land). And also, all the police and lawyer time now spent on this issue will be freed up to address real crimes.

[pscot]

11. Current drug laws are a full employment bonanza

for police and prison guards. Some of them might be forced to look for honest work.

[bemildred]

13. But there is plenty of "honest work" to be done.

Lord knows we got lots of criminals, and our courts hardly work at all, they are so constipated.

[NorthCarolina]

12. "Yes" would seem to be the obvious common sense answer. eom