When Do We Hit The Streets? - Democratic Underground

TygrBright

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Sat Jan-29-11 04:54 PM
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When Do We Hit The Streets?

I don't know. All I can do, as a student of history, is point out what happened last time.

"Last time" started in 1848, often called "the Year of Revolutions" for the numbers of violent upheavals, mostly (but not entirely) in Europe. France, Italy, the various German states, Hungary and Austria, Poland, Slovakia... all were among the states that saw their people take to the streets, making outrageous demands like a voice in their own governments, mitigation of the economic exploitations that produced grinding poverty and early death for more than half of the populations, and so forth. Unreasonable, like.

What did they gain?

In France: A Second Republic, which lasted a total of four (4) years before the "people's leaders" re-established one of the most corrupt, dysfunctional monarchic governments since Louis XVI was shortened by a head.

In Italy: A bitter see-sawing back and forth between Austrian rule, short-lived Italian constitutional monarchies, and a Roman "Republic" that ended with Austria re-asserting control over the northern provinces and France taking over the Roman and Vatican states' temporal management.

In the German States: A windy, divisive debating society called the Assembly of Frankfurt, which spent so much time dithering over various political machinations among the member states that ultimately the King of Prussia was able to re-assert a monarchy with a token constitution and a parliament packed by a class-related voting system with the same aristocracy the people had revolted against.

In Austria and Hungary: A short-lived rash of independent nationalist states, in which the newly "liberated" people promptly elected conservative or moderate governments who suppressed and repudiated the radical revolutionaries that empowered them, connived at ethnic violence and repression, and ended up collapsing back into the fold of Empire. In Hungary, a Magyar government was established and managed to hold out for nearly a year and a half before being reabsorbed.

In Poland: A few months of political wrangling with the Prussians, promises of autonomy that were quickly revoked, several rounds of ethnic violence between German and Polish nationalists, a number of bloody pogroms against the Jews, and some sanguinary battles that ultimately ended with Poland firmly back under Prussian control.

In Slovakia: Violence against Hungarian rule, and an alliance with the Austrians that left them part of the Austro-Hungarian empire, back under Hungarian control, with a few token rights to their own language.

Other states fared similarly. In no place, really, could any of the Revolutions of 1848 be considered ultimately "successful" in the sense of replacing conservative, autocratic, and/or authoritarian governments with liberal, humane, collaborative governments.

However, two things need to be noted about the Year of Revolution:

First, there were places where no one took to the streets. Including great Britain, Russia, the Netherlands, and America, among others.

Second, while the actual events of the year seemed sadly futile, the LEGACY of 1848 was not. Power structures all over the world had seen the streets fill with people demanding change and willing to shed blood for it. And although the forces of counter-revolution appeared to prevail, it set the stage for a steady, painful, costly regaining of ground by the forces of the people. In Britain, where the people had NOT taken to the streets, the elements of the Constitutional monarchy that empowered the aristocratic class slowly gave ground and were ultimately and (comparatively) peacefully retired over the next sixty years.

Largely because of a pervasive fear that 1848 would repeat itself, perhaps successfully this time, governments began to look for ways to placate the middle classes, and relieve the grinding miseries of the poor. The methods they chose were largely calculated on the basis of keeping power in the hands that had held it all along, but even so, the mere facts of middle class significance and lessening poverty had long-term effects.

World War One was the death blow to many of the authoritarian regimes that had pushed back against the violence in the streets. And in the economic devastation left behind, another bubble grew, swelled, and broke, amid increasing in-the-streets violence from labor and socialist idealists. A hundred years after the Year of Revolution, a Western Europe re-building after a second conflagration laid the groundwork for the most liberal and successful socio-economic bloc the world has ever seen.

I'm not claiming that history will repeat itself. If there are any lessons to be gained from the Year of Revolution, they are easily counterbalanced by other interpretations from other readers of history. You can say, if you like, that it was only fear of the masses in the streets that began the loosening and the change. You can equally make a case that it was fear of those same masses that inspired the backlash of autocratic repression and a death-grip on power among the decadent ruling classes.

But these observations of that time, I believe, translate effectively to the political and social economy of the early 21st Century:

Mobs in the streets are a contagious phenomenon. The science of discontent theorizes cumulative effect, and thus far nothing has disproved the theory. Thus the efforts of the powerful to control communications as a means of checking the spread. (Why do you think so little about 1848 is actually taught in history classes?)
There is a point of no return after which the efforts to control communications and check the spread of mobs in the streets actually increase the speed and scope of the phenomenon. And the powerful cannot see that point approaching and cannot perceive when it is passed.
Mobs in the streets whose agenda is inchoate, unfocused, and un-articulated may prevail in the short term but their gains are easily lost. It takes a powerful, coherent, and clearly-articulated agenda, broadly supported and promoted by a dedicated and organized cadre of leaders, to make any lasting gains. And finally;
The true power of a mob in the street lies not in its existence, but in the fear evoked and exaggerated by memory.

I do not know whether or when we will hit the streets in this country. I think some reflection on what happened last time might prepare us for more productive results if and when it does come.

However, knowing exactly how much tendency for reflection the average intensely motivated ideologue has, I am not optimistic. Knowing exactly how much tendency for reflection the average American has, I must admit to a strong twinge of pessimism.

Nevertheless, it is inspiring to observe the level of determination and courage elsewhere in the world. I can only hope their courage and their bitter sacrifices are crowned with better success than last time. And that, if and when we do hit the streets in this country, we do so not only inspired by them, but by the lessons of history.

Anyone willing to give me odds?

philosophically,
Bright