Will Hutton (London Observer): Your time is up, George

[Jack Rabbit]

EDITED to fix tags

From the London Observer (Sunday supplement of the Guardian Unlimited)
Dated Sunday June 27

Your time is up, George
No wonder Bush is running scared - 25 years of neo-conservative ascendancy in the US is under grave threat
By Will Hutton

For my entire journalistic life, the most salient political and cultural fact has been the rise of the American right. It is not just that America has been governed by Republican presidents or by Bill Clinton within the penumbra of the conservative intellectual and cultural ascendancy; it's that the conservative victory in the battle of ideas in the US has had a spill-over affect on the rest of the West.
It is no accident, for example, that the election of Ronald Reagan launched a fivefold increase in the numbers held in American prisons or that the profound growth of inequality also began with him. Whether it's criminal justice or tax policy, Britain and the industrialised West have been profoundly affected by the retreat of American liberalism . . . .
Which is why this year's presidential election is so important, not just for the result but for the way the underlying argument is developing. Bush's strategists thought it would all be sewn up by now; they would have defined Democrat challenger John Kerry as a flip-flop, ultra liberal senator who was unsound on the war against terrorism.
Two-term American presidents have habitually established an unassailable lead over the summer before the November election; the Bush team had hoped to achieve that by now with Kerry. Instead, they are involved in a pitched battle with a growing possibility that they might lose. The Democrats are daring to hope and the Republicans are testy and on edge. On trust, on economic competence, on approval ratings and on whether the President is best for America, Bush's poll ratings are poor and falling. In the majority of so-called 'swing' states across the Midwest that Kerry must win, he is registering small but consistent leads; and despite spending a record $80 million on attack adverts, Bush is trailing Kerry nationally, albeit by a small and fluctuating margin.

Read more.

And don't get overconfident.

[madrchsod]

1. the fix is already in

the bbv and the nadar factor will throw the vote to bush. the only thing that will save kerry is the melt down of george bush mentally or a massive terror strike which he will have to take the blame for...

[louis c]

4. Nader Vote will be negligible

Nader's numbers will appear higher as folks abandon the Nit-Wit president. So will the undecideds. The number to watch is Bush approval/disapproval%

As election day approaches, and the debates and heightened interest begin, those folks who have made up their minds that Bush has to go, will gravitate toward Kerry.

This evaluation is more than opinion, it is historical. Nader is polling in some states up to 7% (Penn.). He only received 3% in 2000, and that election , although close, had no where near the passion of this one. Those numbers will shift to Kerry.

Undecideds have historically broken to the challenger against a sitting incumbent. Even McGovern got 2/3 of the uncommitted in 1972. Reagan got 80% of them in 1980.

No one in the anti-Bush base will stay home. This election looks like 1980. At this time of the year in that election, Carter had an approval rating of 42% and a slim lead over Reagan. You know how that turned out. I believe, when all is said and done, Nader's vote will be less than 2%, and Kerry will end up with more than 50% and an Electoral College Landslide.

[reprehensor]

2. Sounds good.

Let's make it happen.

[shraby]

3. Good read.

[glitch]

5. I love this paragraph:

But opinion is moving. My bet remains that it will carry John Kerry to the White House - just. Of equal importance is the fact that neo-conservatism is on the defensive and that American liberalism has its best chance to regain ground for the first time in a generation.

Very interesting article, thanks for posting.