Jobless Rate at 2012 Presidential Vote Forecast at 7.7%, Highest Since Carter-Ford,

[dtotire]

Jobless Rate at 2012 Presidential Vote Forecast at 7.7%, Highest Since Carter-Ford, but the Trend May Matter Most

By PHIL IZZO

The U.S. jobless rate will be 7.7% in November 2012, the highest level for a presidential election month since Jimmy Carter defeated Gerald Ford in 1976, according to the average forecast of economists in the latest Wall Street Journal survThat rate is well below the 8.9% reported by the Labor Department for February, but still remains high as economists expect job gains to come slowly. "The labor market is a scar that will be slow to fade," said Sean M. Snaith of the University of Central Florida.

On average, the 54 respondents—not all of whom answer every question—forecast the jobless rate will be 8.8% in June and 8.4% in December of 2011. They forecast the U.S. economy will add about 190,000 jobs a month over the next year—an improvement from the depressed level of job creation so far in this recovery, but still too low to bring the unemployment rate down quickly.

While the 7.7% rate in November 2012 would be the highest in seven presidential election cycles, analysts point out that it is often the overall trend—rather than the level of joblessness—that determines an incumbent's fate. President Carter was defeated in 1980 by Ronald Reagan when the unemployment rate was 7.5%, lower than the level when he was elected but up from 5.6% earlier in his term. Meanwhile, President Reagan was re-elected in 1984 with the rate at 7.2%, but that was down sharply from the peak of 10.8% recorded in 1982.




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http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703555404576195030362085382.html

[ixion]

1. 7.7% is a pipe dream

it will be much higher, is my 'forecast'.

[LAGC]

2. Yeah, I was going to say... 7.7% would be quite an improvement.

Unfortunately, I don't see things getting much better with current economic policies in place.

Don't forget, even much of the current drop in unemployment is people being UNDER-EMPLOYED, taking jobs that pay much less than their old jobs did.

So its not like everyone is just going to be happy because they are working, when its part-time or for half the pay.

[JohnWxy]

3. Obama has consistently rated above Carter and Reagan relative to Unemployment rate

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=103x527195


This it's why it's so important for GOP (through the Corporate Media) to convince typical air-head viewer that Obama caused the TrickleDown - Deregulation Depression. Corporate media's job is to confuse people to think a REPUBLICAN DYSTOPIA this is NOT!!!

[doc03]

4. Unemployment at 7.7% and gas at $5.00 or more, not a recipe for

re-election.

[jtuck004]

5. Dollar General has announced the largest expansion of their stores

in years.

Even at 7.7% (which I will believe when I see it) we are talking millions of people who used to make $50K-$90K now making $20K (assuming they are employed) but with the same house payment or same number of kids to support.

Further, the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics testified before Congress that it takes about 130K jobs per month to provide jobs for new people entering the economy. You would subtract that from total job creation, and the difference would be the impact on those who are unemployed. The numbers above would leave 60K per month, which is about 1.3 mill by the election. There are 14 million unemployed of the total 27 million underemployed. We need at least 5 million to get down to 7 ish percent.

Sounds like wishful thinking...

[IrishEyes]

6. I know everyone will disagree with me but

I think that we could have an unemployment rate of 7.7% by November 2012. I know that I'm an optimist but I think things might get better.

[Demeter]

7. If We Had Better Government, Absolutely

and the way to get that...is let this one continue its epic fail.