Joan Walsh: "Gingrich is toast. Pawlenty's sinking. Still no Palin. Romney v. Bachmann?"

[Amerigo Vespucci]

2012 Elections
The GOP field narrows quickly
Gingrich is toast. Pawlenty's sinking. Still no Palin. Could it really come down to Romney v. Bachmann? Video
Joan Walsh

http://www.salon.com/news/2012_elections/index.html?story=/opinion/walsh/2011/07/06/gop_2012



Sure, it's still early, but the outlines of the GOP field are getting clearer. Newt Gingrich, the one-time history professor, is history. His campaign debt alone will sink him; no need to bring up his large lines of credit at Tiffany's. Steve Kornacki says the campaign of the struggling charisma-challenged Tim Pawlenty "smells like death," which is going to be one of those disturbing images that sticks around for a while, even if Pawlenty's bid stays alive. Rick Santorum is a joke, Herman Cain has Iowa staff problems and zero foreign policy knowledge. Beltway favorite Jon Huntsman didn't make the splash people hoped. Once again libertarian Ron Paul, who is raising money and polling respectably, will likely stay in the race for the long haul, making sure our bipartisan and still belligerent foreign policy gets attention.

With second quarter fundraising numbers in, it's clear Mitt Romney remains the front-runner, crushing his rivals in the money primary. But even he came in second to the Mitt Romney of 2008, who raised $23.5 million in this quarter last time around. With $18.5 million, Romney far outstrips his rivals, but lagging behind where he was in 2008, in a race he didn't ultimately win, can't be encouraging. Can this really wind up as a race between Michele Bachmann and Romney?

The lesser-known Bachmann is "surging" in New Hampshire polls, finishing in second place (although how close she is varies with the poll). That reflects Romney-fatigue and excitement about a new face on the scene. Although people like to say Bachmann is the candidate Sarah Palin was supposed to be, had she studied up on the issues and stayed governor, that's not a high compliment. Neither woman can be president. Bachmann may keep a solid base of social conservatives, but Ron Paul will fight her for the official Tea Party mantle. And the more voters, even GOP primary voters, know about her extremism, the less viable she will be. Her "gay-curing" husband's hateful comments about gay people being "barbarians" will alienate all but the fringe that agrees with him.

I talked about the 2012 GOP field today on MSNBC today with Richard Wolffe and Rev. Al Sharpton. Wolffe thinks the field is so weak someone else will almost certainly jump in, someone who can afford to wait until late in the primary season, and that would point to the well-known (and widely disliked) Palin. But I just don't see Palin running. She bailed on her "One Nation" tour half-way through; she doesn't like shlepping from city to city and answering questions from reporters. Why would she leave the comfort of her climate-controlled Fox studio and the safety of her Twitter and Facebook accounts to engage with real world voters or media? The Beltway certainty that the weak GOP field requires someone else to run reminds me of 2008, when pundits said the same thing and banged the drum for…Fred Thompson. We all remember how that went over. But it's still early.

[rocktivity]

1. I suspect that Palin is waitng in the background

hoping to pick up the pieces.

:headbang:
rocktivity

[tekisui]

2. That's how I'm seeing it:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=439x1374316

[Amerigo Vespucci]

3. The freepers are peeing themselves over the chances of a Romney ticket

They really, really don't like the guy at all.

If he wins the nomination, the fix is in. I don't know anyone who would vote for him, do you?

1 posted on Wednesday, July 06, 2011 7:21:55 PM by 2ndDivisionVet

***

To: 2ndDivisionVet

The only way I vote for him is if it is between him and Obama...but I pray it is not him. :(

2 posted on Wednesday, July 06, 2011 7:30:55 PM by EmilyGeiger

***

To: 2ndDivisionVet

If he wins the nomination, the fix is in

And if you think we're screwed now just wait till you see Obama's new 2013 Constitution Shredder.

5 posted on Wednesday, July 06, 2011 7:36:01 PM by oyez (The difference in genius and stupidity is that genius has limits.)

***

To: EmilyGeiger

Sarah will raise more in the week following her announcement than Mitt raises in a year. P-sha..

6 posted on Wednesday, July 06, 2011 7:52:23 PM by ImProudToBeAnAmerican (We were born citizens. Now we are subjects. Soon to be serfs.)

***

To: onyx

Let's just say for argument's sake Romney wins the nomination (shudder).

Does any body think he has the stones to take on Obama in what is sure to be the most corrupt, scorched earth, "total warfare" election in history?

10 posted on Wednesday, July 06, 2011 8:17:02 PM by SecondAmendment (Restoring our Republic at 9.8357x10^8 FPS)

[TlalocW]

5. Perry's going to jump in

He's got the insanely religious part of the GOP liking him (ie their base); he gives a way out so the not-as-insanely-religious-but-still-slightly-bigoted don't have to vote for a Mormon or a woman. He's dumb as a rock, but his handlers won't be, and they could conceivably offer Bachmann the veep position getting the tea-baggers on board. They would be McCain/Palin Version 2.0 - much more formidable than 1.0.

TlalocW

[Amerigo Vespucci]

6. Posted yesterday on Raw Story:

And yes, all astute observations on your part. Republicans would vote for Romney in an "Anyone But Obama" mode, but the enthusiasm wouldn't be there. No matter how much Bachmann has been working from the Palin playbook, she's still not Palin...the freepers are STILL expecting her to "jump in" at the last minute. And there was also a slightly chilling article yesterday about how the post-Arbusto George W. Bush "modeled" himself after Perry. The story said that Perry is trying to distance himself from Bush, but it also said that if he wants the nomination, he's going to have to play nice with the Bush clan...including "handlers" like Rove.

Karl Rove expects Gov. Rick Perry to join 2012 GOP presidential race

By Eric W. Dolan
Wednesday, July 6th, 2011 -- 5:45 pm

http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2011/07/06/karl-rove-expects-gov-rick-perry-to-join-2012-gop-presidential-race/

Former George W. Bush political aide Karl Rove said Wednesday that he believes Texas Republican Governor Rick Perry will run for president, The Hill reported.

"I think you're right that he's going to run," Rove said on the Fox Business Network.

"This is a big state with nearly 24 million people," he added. "And if you're the governor of the state you have the capacity to go out and raise a lot of money from people."

A spokesman for Perry told The Hill that the governor would announce whether or not he plans to run for president in the next several weeks.

[griloco]

13. dumb as a rock but dumber than a bush? n/t

[burning rain]

9. FR has officially vowed to champion third-party opposition to Romney if he's nominated.

.

[eppur_se_muova]

10. Good! I'd love to see the TPers split their own vote. nt

[RZM]

4. Pawlenty was never above water to begin with

He started below the surface and that's where he'll reside until he drops out. He's the Dick Gephardt of the Republican field (even worse, since he doesn't have a previous Iowa win under his belt).

Romney vs. Bachmann would make sense. The corporate Republican vs. the Tea Party candidate. It might even be a real contest!

[ladywnch]

7. BAchmann will go the way of Palin.

She'll start out strong but due to her messianic delusions and her belief that god talks to her and telling her how to run her campaign, she too will not listen to her handlers (she knows best remember----god directs her every move) and she will implode much the same way Palin did and for the same reason.....they're crazy.

[yellowcanine]

8. If it is Romney vs Bachmann and Mittens wins (probable) his views will be so twisted around that

we should just call him "Pretzel man."

By the time he gets done pandering to the tea party and stretching to keep one foot in the moderate middle poor Mitt is going to need physical therapy just to keep himself reasonably upright and mobile.

[skepticscott]

11. Palin will probably jump in eventually

because she can't abide being so far from the center of attention for so long. But she won't be able to hold a campaign staff together for a year, and she won't be willing to put in the hard work that is necessary, slogging on the ground through the primaries and keeping at it after the cameras are off and everyone has gone home.

[struggle4progress]

12. It looks to me like a handful of soundbites will sink every one of these losers

The basic theme is -- The Republicans are in disarray and can only offer us a motley crew of crazies for 2012. Gingrich is a man utterly without integrity who told his cancer-ridden wife he wanted a divorce when she was still in a hospital bed -- and he is the principal engineer of today's ugly partisan gridlock. Palin wasn't serious enough about politics to last a full term as Alaska governor; she bailed out for money and attention. US voters learned more than enough about rightwing Texans during the Bush years -- so they won't fall for the wacko libertarian Paul or the neo-confederate secessionist Perry. Pawlenty's major accomplishment as governor was indifference to infrastructure and a catastrophic bridge collapse. Cain might be a competent pizza company man, but that's not really adequate experience for the office of President, and all his staff quit when they realized that. Bachmann thrills the tea party crowd with her loud rhetoric, but her former chief of staff says she's incredibly unorganized, which is unsurprising, given the crazy-wrong stuff she says. Huntsman is a one-term governor, who dropped out of high school to play in a rock band and is mainly known for nominating Palin for VP; and his cousin Romney is a failed senatorial candidate and another one-term governor, who didn't run for reelection because he wants to be President