http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/jul/13/age-austerity-continue-decades-obrBritain must brace itself for decades of austerity even after George Osborne's spending squeeze, to pay the price for an ageing population, the independent Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) warned on Wednesday.
The OBR, set up by the chancellor to produce independent projections of the public finances, says the rising cost of healthcare and pensions, and declining tax revenues from the North Sea, will mean future governments have to take action to prevent debt levels rising inexorably.
Without fresh tax rises or spending cuts, the OBR says, the government's debt will hit a trough of 60% in the mid 2020s, compared with less than 70% now, before rising rapidly to hit 107% of GDP by 2060-61. Although the deterioration in the public finances is more than a decade away, the OBR urges politicians to make long-term decisions now, to prevent the economy drifting into a debt crisis as the population ages.
"Policymakers and would-be policymakers should certainly think carefully about the long-term consequences of any policies they introduce in the short term. And they should give thought too to the difficult choices that will confront this country once the challenge of the current consolidation has passed," the study says.