Giant Sunspot has Scientists "on the edge of their seats"

[indigobusiness]

Sunspots are temporary magnetic disturbances in the surface of the Sun. They are cooler (6,700° F) and darker than the surrounding photosphere, which usually hovers around 10,300° F. As of July 23rd, a sunspot group, collectively named sunspot 652, is pointed directly at Earth. Sunspot 652 has grown 20 times larger than our planet and can be seen with the naked eye. If this sunspot should let loose, it could produce severe space weather.

"The implications of this spot have scientists on the edge of their seats," NASA said in a statement Friday. "If the active region generates coronal mass ejections (CMEs), massive explosions with a potential force of a billion megaton bombs, it will be a fairly direct hit to Earth and its satellites and power grids."

http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/hugesunspots_040723.html

[On the Road]

1. Any Predictions?

I'm just waiting. Have no idea.

[indigobusiness]

3. Can't predict. Only watch and wait.

If it blows in our direction...it won't be pretty.

[oscar111]

7. Predictions fm the Gov itself

see my link , a few replies below headlined "RELAX"

[indigobusiness]

9. The Govt is predicting what the Sun will do? You relax....

The Govt. can't even predict what IT will do...much less, the Sun.

What nonsense.

[cliss]

2. That one sentence says it all....

"pointed directly at Earth". Kinda makes you uncomfortable, doesn't it? Sorta rekindles those theories about...oh, maybe Karma?

Now, I believe we had a massive set of solar flares last summer. They kept bombarding us, one after another.

If I didn't know any better, I'd say the sun is trying to tell us something....

[indigobusiness]

4. The Aurora from the largest solar flare on record, that it refers to

lit up the night sky here (Tx)like an eery curtain of red.

Aurora was seen deep into Mexico, and even Puerto Rico.


If this momma goes, at least we might get a helluva show.

[oscar111]

5. SKEPTIC: how compare with others,tho?

big means nothing.. what needs to be asked,

How does it compare with the recordsetters last nov.?

sorry if i sounded overly hostile . Just criticizing the spot, not you, dear poster.

art bell exaggerated some spots , i noticed then. Streiber too. There are some spots "over 20 " on some scale i dimly recall. Is this one that big? PS weather not affected.. grids, yes.

[oscar111]

6. RELAX!!! exaggerating journalists again.

scientists may just be eager to have something fairly rare to study.. not to fear. Look at the gov's own forcast.. link below.

On the linked page,
go down to III. section, look at Class X prediction, in percents each of three days. X is a category of flare, not the spot itself. {think it was about 20%, pretty low} -------
then go down a category or two, to geomagnetic storm on earth prediction, look {i think we in usa are higher lattitudes} for major/severe storm prediction... think it was 10 percent.

very little cause for concern.

Gov.'s own official --
Current Solar Forecast

http://www.sec.noaa.gov/forecast.html

PS worst flares are on the decline part of spot cycly, not at the peak of spot cycle. We are on the decline, and i think myself, past the worst of the flares...i think the worst was Nov... but i am just an amateur. Nov flares prob cause of just one minor grid failure, in south sweden, very little on the web about it. Think Nov flares went above X20 in intensity.

Still, thanks to indigo for the post. Keep us all advised.

[indigobusiness]

8. Pay attention...This has real potential.....Not hype or jounalistic spin.

Pay attention to the data and the potential...forewarned is forearmed.

Art Bell is clueless about scientific analysis...he doesn't even understand the nature of science, much less apply it. Ignore him, listen to his guests.

This isn't fear-mongering, this is about an ongoing superphenomenon that could very well affect billions of lives, adversely...maybe tragically so. Worst case is real bad...unthinkable. Less than worst case, if we are massively dosed with x-rays, gamma rays etc...well, that would be bad enough.

Consider the salient parts of the report. Here's a couple:

snip

A sunspot group aimed squarely at Earth has grown to 20 times the size of our planet and has the potential to unleash a major solar storm.

snip

No one can say if this sunspot group will let loose with a major storm, but it has the characteristics of a potentially big event.

"The implications of this spot have scientists on the edge of their seats," NASA said in a statement Friday. "If the active region generates coronal mass ejections (CMEs), massive explosions with a potential force of a billion megaton bombs, it will be a fairly direct hit to Earth and its satellites and power grids."

snip

-----

Glibness in the face of something like this, is silly.


sp edit

[cliss]

11. Thank you indigo, for the research.

I for one believe in being proactive when it comes to warnings like that. In particular when the scientists are "sitting on the edge of their seats".

Now if Art Bell was sitting on the edge of his seat, well -. But when the scientists are, that's when I pay attention.

I would like to know what the results could be if the thing blew. And how much advance notice would we get? I know that the Sun's light takes 4 minutes to travel to earth.

That's not very much advance warning.

[indigobusiness]

12. You're welcome...It is what it is...

It is disturbing, to me, that people tend to view things merely from a personal perspective...instead of unbiasedly and in terms of potential and the big picture.

[indigobusiness]

10. You can't measure a CME that hasn't yet ocurred.

[AlecBGreen]

13. Regardless of what happens

this should serve to make us realize how tiny we are. Knowing that the sun has a "spot" that is larger than our planet...:crazy:

[skip fox]

14. How long would it take for us to feel the effects if it "breaks loose"?

n/t

[ixion]

15. not very long...

90,000,000,000 / 187,000 miles per Second...

Just a few minutes...

[indigobusiness]

16. No, it would takes a few hours, depending on the blast.

It doesn't travel at light speed.

[indigobusiness]

17. The big one last year took about 5 hrs, if I remember right.

Usualy they take twice that, or longer.