http://online.wsj.com/public/article/0,,SB109097166864075775,00.html?mod=todays%5Ffree%5FfeatureStorm Clouds Spell A Chance of Rain On Democrat Parade
July 28, 2004; Page A4
BOSTON – The beaming Democrats gathered here are so happy and optimistic that it seems a shame to shower any rain on their parade. But in the middle of a week like this, a few drops are in order.<snip>
The failure to close the deal. Considering the hellacious spring and early summer President Bush has endured -- bombings and deaths in Iraq, critical reviews of the war on terror by the Senate Intelligence Committee and the independent 9/11 commission, a halting economic recovery, a blockbuster anti-Bush movie -- one can reasonably argue that the most significant political fact isn't that Mr. Kerry is tied with the president in the polls, but that he has failed to move ahead.
Democrats ought to be worried that Mr. Bush has gone through the roughest patch he is likely to encounter this year and has emerged no worse than even with a well-funded opponent. Perhaps the support beneath President Bush has seriously eroded, and that simply hasn't shown up yet. But here's the other possible explanation: "After the last four months that President Bush has gone through, if you're still an undecided voter, you really can't stomach John Kerry," says Republican strategist Scott Reed. In other words, if that small band of truly undecided voters hasn't jumped to John Kerry after the past few months, maybe many never will.<snip>
The Bush team, meanwhile, doesn't even start its convention for another full month, meaning it can keep shoveling out its pile of remaining cash before moving on to federal funding. So you will see a cascade of self-financed Bush ads in coming weeks, and many fewer Kerry ones. "We know this is a risky move we're making here," says Mary Beth Cahill, Mr. Kerry's campaign manager. "We're going dark the month of August."<snip>
The limits of anger. The Kerry camp is trying, admirably, to project a positive image and make a substantive case for its ticket here. Yet there is no escaping the fact that what motivates Democrats more than anything else is antipathy toward -- hatred of, in some cases -- President Bush. While disdain for the other guy is a great motivator, it can carry a campaign only so far. Truly undecided voters generally are seeking something to be for rather than merely someone to be against.<snip>