WSJ: As Debates Begin, Kerry's Key Task: Wooing Waverers

[question everything]

September 30, 2004
Indecision Time

As Debates Begin, Kerry's Key Task: Wooing Waverers

Democrats Say 20% of Voters May Still Be Up for Grabs; Anti-Bush, Pro-Nobody

'I Flip-Flop All the Time'

By JACOB M. SCHLESINGER
Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
September 30, 2004; Page A1

John Hay would love to vote against President Bush. "I don't like anything at all about him," the retired engineer from Missouri says. "He's not intelligent, he's stubborn, and I detest his environmental policy." But Mr. Hay can't bring himself to vote for John Kerry because "he's always doing an about face" on issues. Mr. Hay confesses he's doing the same as he contemplates his November ballot. "I flip-flop all the time," he says. In an American electorate riven by partisanship, Mr. Hay is one of the anomalies: a voter conflicted by the 2004 presidential race. So far, the campaigns have focused on energizing partisans committed to one side or the other. But at tonight's first Bush-Kerry debate, the goal is to win over those in the wavering minority, a group that will likely play a big role in deciding the contest's outcome.

(snip)

What's clear is that when the candidates face off at 9 p.m. tonight in Coral Gables, Fla., Americans will zero in on the candidates' perceived shortcomings. In the latest Wall Street Journal/NBC News Poll, 37% of voters say Mr. Bush "needs to show he is willing to adjust his policies when they are not working." At the same time, 52% say his Democratic challenger needs to "show that he has a clear, consistent plan" on the economy, health care, and national-security issues. Some 51% of persuadable voters consider the debates important to their election choice, compared with 31% of voters overall.

Who are these voters? They tend to be less educated, with lower incomes than the population as a whole, pollsters say. They're usually younger and female. They pay less attention to news and are more likely to be moved by ads, shifting their leanings depending on the last spot they saw. They also tend to identify themselves as moderates without any single ideological litmus test that would dictate voting patterns. On social issues in particular, they tend to be turned off by candidates who seem too extreme, in one direction or the other, on controversial topics. That's one reason Mr. Bush has shied away from sweeping anti-abortion rhetoric and has focused on narrower issues such as late-term abortions. Mr. Kerry has countered by focusing more on stem-cell research than abortion rights.

(snip)

Strategists say there are similar concentrations of traditional swing voters in the campaign's key battleground states. But some, including the critical state of Florida, have an unusually large number of recent immigrants whose political leanings in the U.S. aren't firmly fixed... Democrats are pinning much of their hopes on persuadable voters. If they're engaged enough to vote, these people usually attach themselves to challengers. Democratic strategists are increasingly talking about how Ronald Reagan trailed an embattled President Jimmy Carter through the fall of 1980. A steady debate performance from Mr. Reagan eased concern among voters that he was too conservative and inexperienced... Swing voters are especially sour on Mr. Bush. Just 30% approve of the president's job performance, compared with 47% overall; 25% think he deserves re-election compared with 47% overall; and 69% think he should make "major changes" if he does get a second term. In contrast, 58% of overall voters think that way.

(snip)

For all the attention on Iraq, Kerry advisers think swing voters could be swayed by pocketbook issues, to which they give higher priority than the rest of the country, and where polls show Mr. Kerry generally has an edge over the incumbent. That's one reason the candidate continues to hold regular town-hall meetings on health care and why his Iraq campaign strategy involves tying the war to domestic economic concerns. Yesterday, Mr. Kerry blamed Mr. Bush's Middle East policies for the recent surge in oil and gasoline prices. The Bush campaign's swing-voter strategy, which has used millions of dollars of advertising to portray Mr. Kerry in a negative light, has successfully stymied the Democratic challenger thus far. Bush strategist Matthew Dowd says Mr. Bush has made a positive pitch to swing voters that centers on cultivating an image as a strong commander in chief as well as a second-term agenda that includes overhauling Social Security and the tax code. At the same time, Mr. Bush has also tried to turn swing voters from Mr. Kerry by painting the Democratic challenger as a vacillating, finger-to-the-wind politician.

(snip)


Write to Jacob M. Schlesinger at [e-mail]

URL for this article:
http://online.wsj.com/article/0,,SB109650176784932002,00.html