The Coming Energy Crisis? (Oil Industry warned of Iraq war consequences)

[Xipe Totec]

As submitted to Oil & Gas Journal for publication February 3, 2003

All warning signs that existed prior to the energy crises of 1973 and 1979 exist today. Various energy security measures indicate that the potential for an energy shortage is high.


Various measures of US energy security indicate that the US might be heading for an energy crisis. Many of the warning signs that existed before the energy crises of 1973 and 1979 exist today and they indicate that the current situation could be even worse. US dependence on petroleum imports has grown steadily for over a decade and has been at record levels for several years. Petroleum inventories are low and the ability of Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) and commercial petroleum stocks to cope with an interruption in imports matches the historic lows preceding the 1973 and 1979 energy crises.

The potential for an energy crisis has never been higher. Oil prices have recently exceeded $30 per barrel and they may continue to increase. The disruption of Venezuelan oil supplies has increased the US dependence on Middle Eastern oil and made the US more susceptible to supply interruption. With the crisis in Venezuela, the capacity of OPEC to meet any additional supply interruption is limited and a war with Iraq would put OPEC at its limit. Any energy crisis in the near future will hinder President Bush’s efforts to stimulate the economy through tax cuts and other fiscal measures. An energy crisis could cause a recession, inflation, and higher unemployment.

http://www.wtrg.com/EnergyCrisis/index.html

Did somebody clue in pResident Chimpy, the oil expert?

[Inland]

1. High Oil prices rewards his buds with profits. What crisis?

[Deb]

2. It is a cost crisis now

I'm seeing all the first signs from the past energy crisis.

We went to look at new wood stoves several weeks ago. The place was packed and in back of the business, people were loading the backseats of sedans with bagged coal. The whole scene bordered on panic, one guy said to me "Get it while you can."

Last weekend and 100+ miles away, same thing at another store.

Gas guzzlers sit unsold on car dealership lots.

The local cops are busy investigating stolen gas reports from farmers.

Independent truckers are worried about making payments.

Kerry needs to get on top of this now or the GOP will blame him for a full blown energy crisis after he's elected.

[Xipe Totec]

4. Its going to be a cold hard Winter

I don't think the heating oil supplies will be adequate. The other factor is natural gas. Most of the gas supply comes from offshore Texas and Louisiana. The pipeline system does not have enough capacity to handle peak Winter demand, so gas supplies get shipped north during the Summer and put in storage fields. The four hurricanes in the Gulf disrupted that schedule.

Even if oil prices fall now, the damage is already done.

[puerco-bellies]

5. We get a lot from Alberta Canada...

I guess that's where crash-cart will force march the surviving national guard units next.

[The_Casual_Observer]

3. The economic experts have all along claimed that oil no longer

affects the economy in a significant way. And go on to site percentages and so on. Naturally, since they don't really have any idea what is it they are talking about, they have gotten it wrong. The effect of oil price spike over the the last 6 months is just now beginning to be felt.