(Zogby) Battlegrounds States Poll - OCTOBER 6, 2004

[question everything]

Battlegrounds States Poll - OCTOBER 6, 2004

Overview
Interactive version: http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-battleground04-frameset.html

A strong performance in the first of three presidential debates appears to have helped Sen. John Kerry among likely voters in 16 battleground states, according to the latest Zogby Interactive poll. Mr. Kerry now holds leads, albeit some of them razor-thin, in 13 states, an improvement from the 11 he held three weeks ago.

Notably, Mr. Kerry overtook President Bush in Ohio, a critical swing state where he had been trailing since mid-July. However, the senator's position there is tenuous -- the lead, by 0.3 percentage point, falls well within the margin of error and is one of the closest in the latest poll. Mr. Bush, meanwhile, also dropped Nevada but continued to lead in Missouri, Tennessee and West Virginia -- though the spread narrowed in all three.

In total, Mr. Kerry holds leads outside the margin of error in six states, including Michigan and Pennsylvania; none of Mr. Bush's leads are outside the margin. The margin of error varies between +/- 2.2 and +/- 4.3 percentage points for each candidate.
(snip)

The polls were conducted by Zogby Interactive, a division of Zogby International, which is conducting online polls twice a month through Election Day in states selected with The Wall Street Journal Online. Demographic information submitted by participants in the polls is spot-checked to help prevent fraud, and the results are weighted to make them representative of each state's overall voting population.

(snip)

1st name - 2000 winner; second - Oct. 6 winner
ARKANSAS

BUSH KERRY 0.2

46.7% 46.9%

FLORIDA

BUSH KERRY 0.4

49.1% 49.5%

IOWA

GORE KERRY 6.6

44.5% 51.1%


MICHIGAN

GORE KERRY 9.7

44.4% 54.1%


MINNESOTA

GORE KERRY 8.3

44.1% 52.4%

MISSOURI

BUSH BUSH 2.2

49.8% 47.6%

NEVADA

BUSH KERRY 1.0

47.1% 48.1%

NEW HAMPSHIRE

BUSH KERRY 6.6

43.9% 50.5%

NEW MEXICO

GORE KERRY 11.4

42.5% 53.9%

OHIO

BUSH KERRY 0.3

48.8% 49.1%

OREGON

GORE KERRY 10.1

43.7% 53.8%

PENNSYLVANIA

GORE KERRY 5.4

46.4% 51.8%

TENNESSEE

BUSH BUSH 0.9

48.7% 47.8%

WASHINGTON

GORE KERRY 9.9

43.8 53.7%


WEST VIRGINIA

BUSH BUSH 6.1

50.1% 44.0%

WISCONSIN

GORE KERRY 2.5

48.1% 50.6%

[lakemonster11]

1. Awesome.

Look at those surges in support for Kerry from the states that went for Gore in 2000.

[gottaB]

2. Ohio Ohio Ohio Ohio Ohio

yea!

[Maeve]

4. Shhh! Don't tell the Columbus Dispatch!

Last Sunday's headline touted their own poll showing Bush comfortably ahead. I think they are going to be surprised come November...

[pelagius]

3. Zogby and other polls don't account for...

...newly registered voters. I'm thinking this will be a wild on which the election turns in many states.

And, human nature being what it is, people who were not previously involved politically are more likely to get involved because they're against something -- say, the incumbent.

If you can still register Democrats in your state, push hard! And make sure everyone in your neighborhood who wants to vote for Kerry can get to the polls. My wife and I are taking seven little ol' ladies from the retirement home down the street! They're spitting mad about W!