[PINR] Oct. 15, 2004: Europe, Russia and Chechnya

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Power and Interest News Report (PINR)

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October 15, 2004:

"Is European Pressure Enough to Force a Political Solution in Chechnya?"

Drafted by Yevgeny Bendersky on October 15, 2004
http://www.pinr.com

Ever since the break-up of the Soviet Union, both the Russian Federation and the European community have been preoccupied with concern for the state of affairs in the Republic of Chechnya. At issue is the major difference in the way Europe and Russia see the concept of possible secession and the military/political actions such a concept generates. This difference will play itself out time and time again in the evolving relationship between Russia and the European Union.

- Fundamental Differences

The current conflict in Chechnya has its roots in the first war of secession in the Russian Federation, born as a new entity after the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Ethnic and political discontent, brewing beneath the surface of normalcy in Chechnya in the last decade of the U.S.S.R.'s existence, exploded into open conflict after 1992. On the one hand, the unrest that led to the first Russian military invasion in 1994 was the result of a Chechen domestic drive for independence. On the other hand, many of the events were manipulated and controlled to a certain extent from Moscow. While at first the Russian government tried to address the mounting pressures politically, the increasing disorder in the entire country has made the familiar military solution more and more possible.
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- Recurrent Tension

Europe, on the other hand, continues to criticize Russian actions in Chechnya, especially on the issues of human rights. In April 2004, Russia complained over a critical draft U.N. human rights resolution on Chechnya, proposed by the European Union. The draft condemned human rights violations in Chechnya and expressed concern over civilian difficulties in getting authorities to investigate rights abuses.
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- Conclusion

Given the uncertain state of affairs in Chechnya, and the possibility of more terrorist attacks against Russian territory and civilians, Putin will be left with an almost certain choice of more forceful actions in the restive republic. Such decisions will run counter to Europe's commitment to a political settlement in the Chechen war. Putin's recently proposed political changes in light of the Beslan incident will increase his resolve not to settle the Chechen issue politically, especially after the criticism his administration sustained in the handling of the Beslan hostage crisis.
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