[PINR] Oct. 22, 2004: Restraints in Dealing with Tehran

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Power and Interest News Report (PINR)

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October 22, 2004:

The Power and Interest News Report has released a whole series of analyses on Iran. All of them can be found in the "In the News" section at http://www.pinr.com. Please visit this URL to read the many different analyses on Iran's nuclear development program.

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"Washington Recognizes Restraints in Dealing with Tehran"

Drafted by Erich Marquardt on October 22, 2004
http://www.pinr.com

In the last few weeks, Washington has altered its tone on the issue of Iran's nuclear development program. The present policy, instituted with the inauguration of the George W. Bush administration, began with tough treatment of Iran, labeling the country a "rogue state" and a potential subject for "regime change." Yet, due to the drain on U.S. resources brought by the unexpected instability in Iraq, the Bush administration has been forced to moderate its tone on the Islamic republic.
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- Lack of Viable Military Options

Washington's lack of military options arises out of the U.S. military interventions in Afghanistan and Iraq. The perpetuating instability in these countries, and primarily in Iraq, has overburdened the U.S. military. The overextension of the military constrains America's ability to effectively threaten Iran with martial force since it is clear to all observers that it would be undesirable to the U.S. military to open up another front of conflict, considering it is sustaining daily attacks in Iraq with no end to the clashes in sight, in addition to the tenuous situation prevailing in Afghanistan.
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- International Economic Sanctions

The lack of military strategies for dealing with Iran's nuclear development program explain why Washington has attempted to garner support from Great Britain, France, and Germany to have the issue of Iran's nuclear development program referred to the U.N. Security Council for vote on possible international economic sanctions. The U.S. already has its own sanctions on Iran, which have remained in place since their initiation under President Ronald Reagan in 1987, but the impact of these sanctions has been marginal since other states such as Russia and the Western European powers have a heavy trade volume with Iran.
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- Conclusion

The present conflict between the United States and Iran continues to evolve, with each side crafting strategies that will protect its interests. Iran, which seeks to control the nuclear fuel cycle, uses intimidation in attempts to display the inevitability of the completion of its nuclear development program. Nevertheless, when faced with pressure from other G8 countries -- mainly those of Europe -- Tehran has shifted strategies and has taken a more conciliatory approach, desperately avoiding the threat of European economic sanctions. Therefore, Iran's strategy can be clearly explained as one that aims to control the nuclear fuel cycle as long as that quest does not jeopardize its relations with other economic powers that are critical to the country's continued growth.
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