Battle for the critical few

[Zancan]

For the campaigns, figuring out how to snag uncommitted battleground-state voters like Jay Beatty represents the Holy Grail of another nail-biter election. Pollsters are finding there's no one easy-to-define group to pursue. Typically, women decide later than men, and nationally, that's the case this year, but only slightly. In Colorado, another battleground, there are more male undecideds than female, says Denver pollster Floyd Ciruli.

The polls don't even agree on how many undecideds and "persuadables" there are in the country. One recent Gallup Poll found so few undecided voters that the number rounded down to zero. The Pew Research Center, which doesn't push its respondents as hard as others to state a preference, puts the figure at 9 percent undecided and another 11 percent as open to switching.

But pollsters agree there's no silver- bullet issue that will bring those final voters home. And they're not even sure if the historical precedent - that people who decide late tend to vote against the incumbent - will hold this time, because of a possible new post-9/11 dynamic that could make voters, ultimately, fear a change of leadership.

In Florida, the undecideds are "all over the place" when it comes to determining the most important issue, says independent pollster Del Ali. "For example, Iraq's important to them, the economy is important to them, so is homeland security," says Mr. Ali. "It's a mixed bag. That's what really makes this thing mind-boggling."


http://www.csmonitor.com/2004/1027/p01s03-uspo.html