[PINR] Nov. 1, 2004: Neo-Conservative Influence

[nosmokes]

Power and Interest News Report (PINR)

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November 1, 2004:

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"The Waning Influence of Neo-Conservative Strategists"
Drafted by Erich Marquardt on November 1, 2004
http://www.pinr.com

Brought to power through the inauguration of the Bush administration, a group of individuals who pursued neo-conservative ideology managed to institute their policy directives during the window of opportunity created after the September 11 attacks on New York and Washington. The central goal of this neo-conservative faction was, and remains, to sustain the U.S. as the unchallenged superpower in the world, capable of launching military strikes against any states or groups that threaten this status.
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- Intervention in Iraq Reveals Flawed Strategy

In the aftermath of the first major execution of neo-conservative strategy, that of the preemptive war in Iraq, it has become perfectly clear that the central goals of the neo-conservative faction are deeply flawed. Not only has the outcome of the Iraq intervention resulted in the exact opposite of the faction's predicted scenarios, but it has done so in almost every way.
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- Waning Neo-Conservative Influence

The negative results of neo-conservative policy explain why their influence in Washington has waned, and the further perpetuation of the faction's policies seems unlikely. Indeed, up until the dismal situation in Iraq became evident, neo-conservatives such as Wolfowitz and Pentagon adviser Richard Perle were seen as leading and outspoken members and influencers of the Bush administration. Now, they have been effectively silenced. While before the war the more realist-oriented Secretary of State Colin Powell was increasingly perceived to be a lame duck leader, he has regained the reins of power and has retaken his position as an important spokesman for Bush administration policy.
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- Conclusion

There is talk within Washington circles that many of the neo-conservatives may lose their posts in a second Bush administration. Upon such a development, the United States would be without a National Security Strategy since the one of 2002, which highlighted preemptive warfare and basic neo-conservative policy, would be discredited. The administration's foreign policy would be confused and would gravitate away from potential conflict. This development would help to accelerate a global trend toward multipolarity, with each major power consolidating its interests within its region of influence.
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[cosmicaug]

1. The problem with neocon foreign policy strategy...

The problem with neocon foreign policy strategy is the fact that while a domino effect could indeed happen in the region, there's a good chance that it will tip the wrong way. Unfortunately, the way the administration has been dealing with that possibility is the through vigorous application of wishful thinking: good things are happening, bad things are not happening.

[Demeter]

2. The Problem With Neo-Con Foreign Strategy Is

it had no basis in reality. It could not have succeeded, even by accident.