Democrats' Losses Go Far Beyond One Defeat (Exit poll analysis)

[papau]

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-assess4nov04.story
NEWS ANALYSIS
Democrats' Losses Go Far Beyond One Defeat
By Ronald Brownstein Times Staff Writer

November 4, 2004

<snip>Although Bush in Tuesday's vote made some inroads among swing groups such as Latinos and married women, exit polls and voting results in key counties across the nation suggested he won his second term mostly by increasing the GOP strength in places where the party was already strong — especially rural, small-town and fast-growing exurban communities.

Bush successfully defended 29 of the 30 states he won in 2000 — and increased his margin of victory in 19 of those 29. Exit polls showed he dominated among the same groups central to his much narrower win in 2000 — including regular churchgoers, married families and gun owners. And both the exit polls and voting results make clear that he inspired a huge surge of Republican turnout — just as he did in the 2002 midterm elections.<snip>

"Democrats face this terrible arithmetic in the Electoral College where if they don't carry any of the 11 Southern states they need to win 70% of everything else," says Merle Black, an expert on Southern politics at Emory University.

The math is just as daunting in the battle for Congress. Republicans will now control 18 of the 22 Senate seats in the states of the Old Confederacy, plus all four in Oklahoma and Kentucky. In the past two election cycles, the two parties have competed for nine open Senate seats in the South; with their sweep of five Democratic-held open seats Tuesday, Republicans have now captured all nine.<snip>

Both the Times and NEP exit polls showed that Republicans constituted about as large a share of the voters Tuesday as Democrats.

[papau]

1. ... for a Divided America(division will lead to more seriousbalkanization)

http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/editorials/la-ed-divide4nov04.story
EDITORIAL ... for a Divided America

November 4, 2004

<snip>After the old Democratic Party lost its hegemony in the Deep South, Americans came to assume that, in a more closely linked nation less locked to the power of individual states, geography needn't determine political affiliation. But now we are left to wonder: Will a GOP presidential candidate ever again carry New York or California, and will a Democrat ever carry Texas or Georgia?

Bush improved on his 2000 performance by winning the popular vote this time, but his failure to broaden his national market share stands in marked contrast to most other presidents who have won reelection. Narrow wins by Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton were followed by convincing incumbent landslides four years later. Bush, by contrast, won a second term and a stronger majority in the Congress by further galvanizing already red states.

None of this augurs well for a less-polarized nation or a blurring of rural red and urban blue into a mellowing purple. The administration and Bush's red-state supporters will probably feel emboldened by Tuesday's results to press ahead with their agenda, and that will only increase the feeling of alienation in states like California and New York.

Tuesday's exit polls added to the sense that the red-blue schism might be more intractable than we would have liked to believe. That's because it is defined less by issues of the day than by battling cultures. For a plurality of Bush supporters in all-important Ohio, for instance, "moral issues" were more important in driving their choice than national security or the economy. Church attendance has become the most reliable predictor of political allegiance, and the likes of Karl Rove are cynically adept at exploiting this cultural divide. Witness the proliferation of needless anti-gay marriage initiatives nationwide. <snip>

[jobycom]

2. Oh, so NOW the exit polls are right?

Pisses me off. They are all wrong according to the election results, and yet the media is still using them to explain why Bush won-- even thought he exit polls show he lost!

We need a free press in this nation even more than we need a non-murdering, non-traitorous leader.

One more thing: Tuesday night Bill Schneider showed exit polls in Florida claiming Kerry had strengthened his support amongst seniors, now they are all claiming Bush won the senior vote. Damnit, I never really believed Orwell was right.

[yellowcanine]

3. My reaction also. I don't believe people tell the truth on exit polls.

Plus - they are inherently biased because many people refused to be polled. Who is going to agree to be polled? People who are pushy about their views and like to talk about them.

[papau]

5. It is sad that as the GOP claim gains - per exit polls, we're told

exit polls suck!

:-)

[papau]

4. Interesting Exit poll numbers

men were 49% of vote, 53% voted for Bush and 46% for Kerry -Women 51 Kerry, 49% Bush, with married men 31%of vote and 59%/40, single men 16% of vote and 40%Bush 58 Kerry, married women 30% of vote at 57% Bush, 42% Kerry, and single women 19% of vote at 35% Bush, 64% Kerry.

The age split is also interesting, with 18-29 (20%) 43%/55, 30-44 (32) 52%/47, 45-64 (36) 54%/45, 65 or older (12) 55%Bush/45 Kerry.

The race/ethnicity splits were White (79%) 57%/42, Black (10) 14%/86, Latino (5) 45%/54, Asian (3) 34%/64.

At least we won the smarter folks with Less than college (48%) 54%/45, and College degree or more (52) 49%/50, And surprise, the more you make, the more you vote GOP -Less than $20,000 (10%) 46%/51, $20,000 to $39,999 (20) 47%/52, $40,000 to $59,999 (20%) 51%/48, $60,000 to $74,999 (15) 53%/46, $75,000 or more (35) 54%/45

At least 32% of the voters said they were "liberal": - with 19% Bush, 79% Kerry, Moderate (29) 45%/54, Conservative (39) 82%/18

The year 2000 40/35 Dem to GOP advantage is gone - Democrat (40%) 12% for Bush, 88% Kerry, Independent (19) 48%/49, GOP (39) 94%/6. At least the military household split was rather even -Folks from a household with a veteran and/or family active in military (46%) 54%/45, not in military,nor a veteran (50) 48%/51

In Religion we lost - Protestant (51%) 61%/38, Catholic (25) 55%/44, Jewish (4) 26%/74 - and we lost big time if very religious- attendance at religious services weekly or more (42%) 65%/34, versus less than that (58) 42%/57. And as expected gun owners favored Bush (36%) 65%/34, don't own any (64) 43%/56. And it was City versus Small Suburb/Town/Rural -City (36%) 43%/56, Suburb (32) 52%/47, small town (20) 58%/41,Rural (12) 62%/37. And there was not much of a union advantage -Union households (27%) 43%/56, Non-union households (73) 54%/45

At least we got the 4% of the vote that was gay - Heterosexual (96%) 53%/46, Gay/lesbian/ bisexual (4) 17%/81. But why did 11% of the 49% of the country that thought we were on the wrong track vote for Bush?

The Los Angeles Times Poll- 5,154 voters as they exited 136 polling places across the nation MOE 3%.